Are These Players Undervalued Or Overvalued In Fantasy Football 2026?

Imagine this: you're on the clock on Underdog, seconds are remaining and it seems like time is somehow moving faster. Your heart is telling you to pass on Derrick Henry in the second round, but then you go to Fantasy Life, and suddenly it's a battle between ADP and 2026 projections … which side are you going to take?!

Henry won't be the only player who drafters will be torn on this draft season—let's check out current Underdog ADPs vs. Fantasy Life projections to find the most undervalued and overvalued players right now.

Overvalued: Caleb Williams

QB11 in projections vs. QB5 in ADP

We know what's on the table for the Bears in 2026 and the driving force behind Caleb Williams' current average draft position: hope for Chicago under Ben Johnson. Last season, Williams' completion percentage was one of the worst in the league (58%), but we know the upside that a dual-threat quarterback brings to fantasy. Dwain McFarland's projections don't get much better for the Bears’ QB1 in 2026, with a projected 61% completion percentage, 3,646 passing yards and 390 rushing yards. This is all good for 295.4 PPR fantasy points, putting Williams behind the likes of Jaxson Dart, Trevor Lawrence and Dak Prescott in total fantasy points.

Are you willing to draft Williams ahead of Jalen Hurts or Drake Maye? My heart says no …

Undervalued: Cam Skattebo

RB16 in projections vs. RB24 in ADP

Yeah, yeah, I'm an ASU homer, whatever! This is too big a gap not to talk about in projections and ADP. Cam Skattebo's rookie season was cut short due to a brutal ankle injury, but the six full-game samples he gave us are why we should all be back in—Skattebo averaged 16 carries, 4.7 targets and 96.3 scrimmage yards along with 6 touchdowns. His 222 rushing attempts and 922 projected rushing yards for 2026 place him right outside the top-15 running backs. There is always a chance the Giants look to add to their backfield in the draft, but if they run it back with Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary, then the potential for a second-year breakout becomes even higher for Skattebo.

Undervalued: Jaylen Waddle

WR16 in projections vs. WR25 in ADP

A change in teams for Jaylen Waddle hasn't pushed fantasy drafters as far as I expected in early drafts. Is it the presence of Courtland Sutton that isn't getting him into the top 20? Waddle has performed for years with a combination of uneven quarterback play and Tyreek Hill on the field. And yet, in those five seasons, he still averaged 75 receptions, 1,008 yards and 5.4 touchdowns. The projections tell a story of Waddle still coming through for fantasy managers …

Waddle: 118 targets / 79 receptions / 1,066 receiving yards / 227.3 PPR Fantasy Points
Sutton: 108 targets / 69 receptions / 928 receiving yards / 203.8 PPR Fantasy Points

I'm taking advantage of this price before drafters start coming around to the idea that this is a huge upgrade with Waddle in Denver.

MORE PROJECTIONS TO UNCOVER HIDDEN GEMS

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Mendoza Falls in Superflex Mock Draft

Jeremiyah Love may be the locked-in 1.01 pick in dynasty rookie drafts, but keep in mind the importance of the QB position in superflex formats. Getting the real-life 1.01 QB in Fernando Mendoza has to boost his value to drafters, especially those needing QBs. Well, Ian Hartitz and Upper Hand Fantasy’s Faraz Siddiqi pushed the envelope to see how far they could conceivably wait each other out before one would cave and draft Mendoza.

Ian and Faraz conducted a one-round mock superflex draft just two weeks before the real NFL Draft takes place. After Love, it was a repeated discussion on each pick, with a compelling argument made for each pick. Even the ones passing on Mendoza, and eventually relenting on selecting the Heisman winner. ⤵️

WHICH WR MAKES SENSE AT THE 1.02?

5 ADP Risers: Expect Downs to Keep Going Up

It’s often interesting to see how the offseason news impacts how the fantasy community views players. Take the case of Josh Downs. Solid player was a Round 3 pick in 2023. He had a down year last season, when many fantasy managers drafted him as a possible sleeper. Now comes an offseason trade of Michael Pittman Jr., and Matt LaMarca explores how that could impact Downs this season:

Downs has succeeded with opportunities in the past. His numbers were down last year in his first season with Daniel Jones at quarterback, but he had at least 68 receptions and 771 receiving yards in his first two professional seasons. With Pittman’s 21% target share now up for grabs, Downs could be looking at a much larger share of opportunities in 2026 for one of the league’s most quietly efficient offenses.

There are more players who have seen their ADP jump up of late.

AN RB WITH ONLY 9 CAREER CARRIES IS MOVING UP

Around The Watercooler

The latest fantasy and NFL gossip, news, memes and more from our merry band of football nerds …

⚡️ Deebo to the Chargers? That’s a bolt of electricity for the offense.

🔮 Going top 5 in the draft? Top 10? These players are good bets to go that high.

🏃🏽‍♂️ Even after a late Round 1 run on WRs, plenty receivers went in Round 2.

🤔 Speaking of WR prospects, how will you approach the 1.02 in rookie drafts?

🐆 The Jaguars are overflowing with wideouts. One could be a good trade target.

👀 Tate, Lemon or Tyson? The top 10 rookie WRs for dynasty have a battle for the top spot.

🏈 Go for the ceiling in DK best ball drafts. You’re drafting a thesis, not a team.

🤝 Buy low on these pass catchers. Romeo, Romeo, can I trade you for a Round 2 pick?

🚨 Looks like Travis Hunter will focus on one side of the ball. Gadget plays?

NFL Mock Draft With Thor Nystrom

ICYMI: Old friend Thor Nystrom joined Ian Hartitz for, you guessed it, a mock NFL Draft. There were some bold selections that would shake up the NFL if they really happened. See if they get a second QB into Round 1.

LOVE’S LANDING SPOT WOULD COMMAND ATTENTION