Presented by
Bijan or Chase at 1.01? Fantasy Football Mock Draft Quandaries
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Hims, early fantasy mock draft questions, Dwain McFarland's Round 1 mock and more.
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Hims:
I was on the Fantasy Life Show on Sirius XM a couple of weeks ago with Adam Ronis, and it came up that my top-ranked player for 2026 fantasy is not RB Bijan Robinson, but WR Ja'Marr Chase.
Since I'm the only person in our Fantasy Life player rankings to have Chase No. 1, I feel it's appropriate for me to make something of a "minority report," as it were.
Side note: Minority Report might be a top-5 Tom Cruise movie. Side note to my side note: Please don't automatically assume my fantasy insights are terrible just because my film opinions are verifiable garbage.
Here's my case for Chase at No. 1, followed by my quick thoughts on the players I have ranked Nos. 2-3.
For thoughts on all the guys in my top 12, see my recent 2026 Round 1 fantasy football mock draft.
To access our 2026 fantasy football ranks, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Why WR Ja'Marr Chase Is My 1.01
A few weeks ago, Dwain McFarland (our Director of Analytics) and I got together for an episode of Talk Data to Me in which we discussed league trends that have emerged over the past 2-5 years, one of which is this: Passing is down.
And it's especially impacting non-elite WRs.
Here's what I think that means for fantasy: WR1s, especially top-tier WR1s, might be more valuable than ever.
And that means I want to take Ja'Marr Chase at the 1.01.
Framed differently: If I take Chase at 1.01, I think I'll still get an RB I like at 2.12.
But if I take an RB at 1.01—let's say Bijan Robinson or maybe Jahmyr Gibbs—I probably won't like the WRs available there as much as I like the RBs.
Additionally, there's a case to be made for Chase at the 1.01 anyway, regardless of whoever is available in Rounds 2-3.
Even with the recent decline in passing, Chase's usage has actually increased over the past two years (in terms of targets per game).
- 2023: 9.1
- 2024: 10.3
- 2025: 11.6
Since 2024, Chase is easily No. 1 in the league with 360 targets. Unsurprisingly, he's also No. 1 in receptions (252), receiving yards (3,120) and receiving TDs (25).
In most leagues, I expect Chase not to go No. 1.
But a case can be made for it, and I think in most leagues where I take Chase at 1.01, I'll be able to get two RBs I like at the turn of Rounds 2-3: Maybe Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry and/or Chase Brown.
I don't hate that idea.
Bijan Robinson Is Once Again My No. 1 RB
Robinson was the consensus No. 1 RB last year in fantasy drafts, and he delivered: He finished with an NFL-high 2,298 scrimmage yards, and he was the only RB to post top-5 production in each of Weeks 15-17 ("fantasy playoffs").
Still just 24 years old, he has an uncertain QB situation (Michael Penix tore his ACL in November) and a new coaching staff (HC Kevin Stefanski, OC Tommy Rees), but Robinson's three-down skill set (287 carries, 103 targets last year) should neutralize any circumstantial negativity.
In all formats, Robinson should once again be the No. 1 RB selected.
The Case for WR Puka Nacua
Although I prefer Chase, a case can be made for Nacua as the No. 1 WR in fantasy. Since he entered the league in 2023, he's easily No. 1 in receiving yards per game.
- Puka Nacua: 95.3
- Ja'Marr Chase: 88.5
- CeeDee Lamb: 87.4
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 83.6
- Justin Jefferson: 83.6
Plus, Nacua has some ability as a runner (33-240-2 rushing for career).
The one drawback with Nacua: He scored "only" 11 TDs last year (a career-best mark). That's a fine number—but the Rams have other guys on the team who can score (as evidenced by their 2025 TDs).
- RBs Kyren Williams & Blake Corum: 19
- WR Davante Adams: 14
- TE Colby Parkinson: 8
He'll need to compete for goal-line and end-zone opportunities once again in 2026, and it seems unlikely that MVP QB Matthew Stafford will once again throw a league-high 46 TDs or have a career-best 7.7% TD rate.
But I'm nitpicking. Nacua is awesome, and if someone wanted to say that Nacua should be ranked as the No. 1 WR in fantasy and that a WR should go 1.01 … I wouldn't dismiss the opinion out of hand.
New Year. New You.
With 2026 in full swing, it’s a good time to refocus on your own goals. Hims’ weight loss treatment plans have helped users lose an average of 11.7 pounds in the first month*—and their holistic approach helps you keep it off, with support that includes nutrition planning, movement, and more.
It’s convenient, legit, and refreshingly simple to get started. You’ll fill out an online assessment and, if eligible, you’ll get connected to licensed medical providers to guide you through weight loss treatment plans that fit your goals.
Whether you’re chasing better energy, more confidence, or just want to feel more in control—Hims is here to help you stick to the plan (even when your starting QB busts his ankle).
We’re proud to have Hims as a Fantasy Life partner. Their support keeps this newsletter free, fun, and full of trade panic and waiver wire regret.
*Compounded drug products are not approved or evaluated for safety, efficacy, or quality by the FDA. Based on self-reported data from approximately 1400 Hims customers on a personalized treatment plan, including compounded GLP-1 injections, along with a reduced-calorie diet and exercise. Customers reported their weight at their initial medical consultation and their first check-in approximately 4 weeks later. Stopping weight loss treatment has been shown to result in weight regain.
*Not available in all 50 states. Weight Loss by Hims is a holistic program that includes nutrition support, technological tools, and medications prescribed based on what your provider determines is medically appropriate and necessary for you. See website for full details, important safety information, and restrictions, including online provider consultation requirements."
Premium
Go FantasyLife+
Your league is unique. Your advice should be too. Get personalized tools, rankings, and projections tailored to your fantasy football league settings.
Editors’ Picks
Another weekend with no football? Don’t love it, but we’re accepting it. And while you’re gearing up for what is coming—NFL Scouting Combine and free agency—here are some articles you may have missed …
Early My Guys
Pounding the table for Malik Willis? What a time to be alive! Ian Hartitz nominates a half dozen players he’ll be targeting in drafts.
3-Star to THE Star
Fernando Mendoza’s rise may seem meteoric. It wasn’t. Ian Hartitz profiles the presumptive 1.01 in the NFL Draft, comps and all.
Keep or Cut?
What to do with Darius Slayton in Dynasty? Jake Trowbridge and Sam Wallace take opposing sides on several players.
How Does Dwain McFarland See Round 1?
Freedman got the ball rolling already, but seriously—who doesn't love a way-too-early fantasy football mock draft of the first round? This is how I see things shaking out a bit differently in the first round ahead of free agency and the NFL Draft.
3. Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Lions
Gibbs has produced RB8, RB2 and RB3 seasons with 16.3, 21.5 and 21.7 points over his first three years in the NFL. He is an electric playmaker with a 14.8% career explosive rush rate (10-plus-yard attempts) and a dynamic receiver out of the backfield. Despite playing in a loaded offense, he had an 18% target share and ranked first in targets per route run (TPRR) at 25% last year.
The one concern regarding Gibbs in previous years was the split backfield with David Montgomery. Over his first two years, that was the case, but in 2025, the Lions opened up the throttle.
- Snaps: 57% → 67%
- Attempts: 51% → 57%
- Routes: 54% → 59%
The primary area where Gibbs hasn't been able to dethrone Montgomery is inside the 5-yard line. Last year, Gibbs handled 38% of those attempts while Montgomery accounted for 62%.
Gibbs is set for a large role in what should be one of the best offenses in the league. If his role expands inside the 5, he would be a frontrunner to finish as the No. 1 flex player in fantasy football.
7. CeeDee Lamb | WR | Cowboys
Lamb was the No. 1 WR in fantasy in 2023 with 23.8 PPG. However, over the last two seasons he has dealt with injuries and a changing team environment, both of which have impacted his performance. In 2024, Dak Prescott played only eight games, and in 2025, George Pickens arrived on the scene. He averaged 17.6 and 14.4 PPG, finishing as the WR8 and WR13, respectively, in those seasons.
The Cowboys are expected to sign Pickens to an extension or use the exclusive franchise tag to keep him on the team in 2026. While that could hamper his chances of reaching his max potential, he will be only 27, and his underlying data still points toward high-end WR1 talent.
- YPRR: 2.37 (WR1-worthy)
- TPRR: 25% (WR1-worthy)
Despite the target competition from Pickens, Lamb resides in one of the few offenses that have continued to put up large passing numbers. The league average for passing yards per game (210) reached its lowest mark since 2006 in 2025. Prescott ranked third in passing yards per game last season with 268.
Lamb still carries high-end WR1 upside thanks to a strong talent profile and a passing offense that can still rack up big yardage.
12. Ashton Jeanty | RB | Raiders
This pick was the hardest to forecast because we reached a point where all the candidates had considerable question marks.
- Justin Jefferson needs a better QB.
- Trey McBride might be the safest pick, but it's hard to get league-winning points from a TE.
- Malik Nabers is recovering from an ACL injury.
- Drake London is in a new offense and has QB questions.
Ultimately, I wanted to lean into an RB here, and it came down to Jeanty and Omarion Hampton. I chose Jeanty due to his higher upside as a complete back who could handle 300 carries and reach a 15% target share. However, it was close because I prefer the Chargers' offense.
Last year, Jeanty had to deal with a terrible offensive line and subpar offensive play-calling. The Raiders hired Klint Kubiak as their new head coach and have the third-most effective cap space per Over the Cap. They also have the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, where they project to select Fernando Mendoza. Basically, I expect enough improvement to allow Jeanty to be a bigger factor in 2026.
As a rookie, Jeanty finished as the RB15 with 14.3 PPG. He was an every-down back with a 78% snap share. He ranked second in attempt share (28%) and seventh in target share (14%). Even with marginal improvements, it isn't hard to envision 16 to 18 PPG. That would be good for an RB6 to RB11 finish based on the league average over the last three years in PPR formats. ⤵️
Around the Watercooler
The latest fantasy and NFL gossip, news, memes and more from our merry band of football nerds …
💪 How does one escape SNACKrifice? First make a major declaration to Matthew and Kendall.
👀 This team has unlimited upside … if they can figure out the defense.
🤔 A knock-off Brock Purdy? Someone will draft him this offseason.
🙌 Can we get Terry McLaurin a running mate in DC? Jayden Daniels would give it his approval.
🤩 Fernando Mendoza’s big leap in one year. Super impressive.
🦇 We want to see this dynamic duo in Gotham. Make it happen.
🐆 The Cheetah reuniting with the Chiefs? Not so fast.
🏈 Rams have a new OC. Well, not so new to LA.
Join Our Newsletter
Trusted by 400,000+ fantasy football players. Get access to Fantasy Life's free award winning newsletter and tools, all in one step.
By registering or logging in, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.