Bucky Irving Injury Update And Fantasy Football Outlooks For Kenneth Gainwell And Sean Tucker
The news around Bucky Irving's recovery from offseason shoulder surgery has been few and far between. With his continued absence from OTAs, how should you approach Irving and the TB RBs in fantasy drafts?
The curious case of Bucky Irving continues as NFL OTAs opened up this week. As of Tuesday, May 26, Bucs’ HC Todd Bowles reported that Irving is expected to return from his shoulder surgery sometime “during summer or fall”.
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The ambiguity surrounding Irving’s recovery from his shoulder surgery has been ongoing, driving fantasy football players mad over how to handle Irving and his backfield mates, Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker. How should you approach them in dynasty leagues, best ball drafts and your season-long draft prep? Let’s take it one step at a time.
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Update on Bucky Irving’s Shoulder Injury
Irving originally suffered a shoulder injury during a Week 4 game against the Eagles. Before this game, Irving was playing 76% of the snaps and handling 74% of the Bucs’ rushing attempts with a 63% route rate, 15% target share and a gaudy Utilization Score (90), operating as the RB10 in PPR formats (15.5 ppg). He looked every part the sophomore breakout many expected after a great finish to his rookie season.
He was able to play 59% of the snaps in Week 4 before being sidelined with the injury until Week 13. While he played from Week 13 through Week 18, he reportedly played through enough discomfort to the point of needing offseason surgery on the shoulder and has yet to be cleared to return to OTAs.
Alarm bells are ringing, and understandably so. A Week 4 injury that Irving returned from in the same season led to an offseason surgery that has now taken at least three months to recover from, with no tangible updates, just vague coachspeak hinting at a return between summer and fall.
This has, understandably, cratered Irving’s fantasy football ADP, as his production post-injury was an issue in itself, but the drawn-out recovery timeline has only compounded the damage.
The question—does this provide an opportunity to draft Irving for cheaper than he should be, or is he going to continue to tumble down the fantasy football rankings into fade territory?
Fantasy Football Outlook For Bucky Irving, Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker
As mentioned, Irving was a different player after returning in Week 13 last season. After posting a Utilization Score of 90 to start the season, Irving’s numbers dropped off a cliff from Week 13 onward.
- 56% Snaps
- 65% Rush Att
- 43% Routes
- 8% targets
- 68 Utilization Score
His target share was nearly half of what it was pre-injury. His snap share, rush share and route rate cratered. He failed to record a single carry inside the five-yard line (same as Weeks 1-3). This all culminated in a 68 Utlization Score, averaging 11.1 points per game for an RB24 rank.
Sean Tucker, meanwhile, handled 88% of the inside-the-five carries, while Rachaad White logged a 40% route rate and 85% snap share on long-down-and-distance plays.
Irving was relegated to a between-the-20s role. And that’s terrifying heading into 2026.
While White is out of the picture, he was replaced by pass-game savant Kenneth Gainwell, who ran 55% of the routes last season (65% from Week 10 onward) with a strong TPRR rate of 24% and a 16% target share.
Tucker is also still around, and after commanding 58% of the carries inside the five-yard line last year (88% post-Week 12), it’s likely we see a similar, if not expanded, role in 2026.
Messy would be an understatement for this backfield.
We’re going to see a ton of movement off their current Underdog ADPs—Irving 45.5 (RB20), Gainwell 116.5 (RB38), Tucker 195.1 (RB60).
Tucker is already one of the biggest ADP risers over the last week (+4.7 spots), while Irving will continue to slide, likely outside of Round 4. Gainwell will also continue to steam given his strong finish to last season.
At their current costs, Irving is a clear fade until we get more clarity around the injury, given the lack of high-value touches in his current role. Gainwell is a strong mid-to-late-round target, while Tucker is easily one of the best late-round sleeper picks on the board.
Here’s to hoping we get more clarity surrounding this backfield throughout OTAs.
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