Cam Ward and Tennessee Titans are a Buy-Low Opportunity in Fantasy Football

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, powered Comet:

Since no one on Earth voluntarily runs across more cool numbers that never get shared than me, it felt like time to change all that. Thanks to some help from some friends behind the curtain, I bring you the football stats to know that no one else is talking about for Week 5

The Stat That Moved Me: Buying Low (Notes) In Music City

Tennessee’s offense laps the field in a race to the bottom when it comes to expected points added—the Titans’ comical -0.25 EPA/play is 12% worse than the field! Imagine costing your team a point on the scoreboard every time you get the ball.

No one can be that bad for long. Something’s gotta give …

Trying to pinpoint a bottom perfectly in any market can drive even the most battle-hardened trader mad. And catching falling knives can be a fast pass to the poorhouse— but I ask you, when is enough enough?

Remember what Warren Buffett said, “it’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked.”

Elic Ayomanor and Chig Okonkwo represent physically talented full-time players, yet remain unrostered in over two-thirds of all fantasy leagues. How long before that seems ludicrous? Both lay claim to multiple top-24 finishes on what we’re openly admitting is a dysfunctional offense. Reminder, quarterback growth isn’t linear.

Before last Sunday’s debacle against DeMeco Ryans’ defensive scoring-leader Texans, rookie Cam Ward was showing week-over-week improvements in completion rate, yards per attempt and passer rating. Not to mention, Houston marked the fourth straight defense to face Tennessee, ranking top-10 in yards allowed per play (<4.7).

Tough sledding.

TEN’s matchups will only improve—and you know once they pop, prices will skyrocket. I’m grabbing my piece of the pie before it winds up costing an arm and a leg. Just tethered them both to a high-stakes bench awaiting a second-half breakout.

More Stats To Know Entering Week 5

– Only three defenses surrendered more than 4.9 yards per rush this season: the Giants, Bears and Bills. Except get this, all three allowed over 6.0—make sure to circle the trio weekly on your fantasy calendar.

– Losing Lamar Jackson alone would cripple any Super Bowl contender, and that’s without mentioning the impact of Baltimore suffering injuries to multiple defensive starters. Short on secondary personnel and unable to create pressures or sacks, slot WRs are currently feasting—averaging 8.8 receptions, 87.5 yards and 2.3 TDs per game against John Harbaugh’s defense; easily the NFL’s worst.

– No one deploys more five-DB defensive alignments (87.5%) or two-high shell coverages than Seattle (32.5%), partly resulting in a league-worst receptions (29) and receiving yards allowed (266) to the RB position. Keep that in mind as bye weeks approach if you find yourself desperate for a flex-worthy option. Calling all satellite backs …

– Matt Eberflus’ cover-3 heavy, zone-exclusive schematics, paired with a bottom-three pressure rate, really opened the proverbial floodgates for the Cowboys’ opposition. The last three QBs to face Dallas all finished as the week’s QB2 with over 28 fantasy points scored in each. Let’s call them anti-matchup-proof.

RB HANDCUFFS & MORE TO KNOW FOR WEEK 5

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About Last Night …

Two division rivals coached by friends and former colleagues, both teams blasting away at one another into OT in picturesque SoFi Stadium in the backdrop of Hollywood. What a way to spend a Thursday night! The 49ers, down to backups at QB and WR, were led by Mac Jones, who threw for 342 yards and 2 TDs, hobbling his way through the extra period of a 26-23 victory that was sealed on a fourth-down stop of the Rams’ Kyren Williams deep in 49er territory. Here are some fantasy heroes:

Kendrick Bourne, yes that guy, with 10 catches for 142 yards on a big night with Mac.
Puka Nacua had 10 more catches, now at 52 on the season!
Kyren with 2 TDs and almost a third, was one of many stars on the night.
Matthew Stafford looked rejuvenated with 389 yards and 3 scores, and helped Puka make history.
Ho hum, 139 total yards and a score for CMC.

PUKA NACUA IS SETTING THE PACE AT WR

Editors’ Picks

OK, Week 5 is underway. The shine is off the new season. We’ve got some data to work with, as well as rankings and projections. And this great content helps, too.

Week 5 Mismatches

You’re starting Josh Allen every week, but is he set up to light up the Patriots? Ian Hartitz sets the table with some games and matchups that could see some big fantasy points.

WR/CB Matchups Week 5

T-Mac may be just a rookie, but his matchup against the Dolphins makes him look extra formidable. Chris Allen picks out the WR/CB matchups to attack and avoid this week.

Week 5 Injury Report

Is Lamar Jackson going to play? Nobody knows the answer, but we know how to prepare. Adam Ronis and Jorge Martin examine the injuries with fantasy football implications heading into Week 5.

Week 5’s Bold Start of the Week: Emari Demercado

When the fantasy gods slam a door, they often open a window in the meantime—we just need the courage to climb through it. Unfortunately, this game we love so much and hold so dear is also a never-ending war of attrition. After Wednesday afternoon’s big news, we can add newly crowned Arizona starting RB Trey Benson to the list of latest fantasy commodities swallowed up in the injury wormhole.

The second you thought it was safe to blow all your FAAB … wham! A minimum four-week stint on the IR for Benson’s bum knee. Prepare to move on, there’s zero certainty we’ll even get a true return to peak power this season. Next man up.

Social media’s currently ablaze with brilliant minds on both sides, jousting over how backfield workload will shake out in the desert. I won’t pretend to be positive, but I will assure you it created a massive amount of consternation in some work chats today.

After some back-and-forth with one of our resident backend sharps, I flip-flopped my initial instinct to prioritize Michael Carter over Emari Demercado. The more I dug, the more I needed to pivot off priors. The first thought that came to mind? Carter finishing as the Cardinals’ clear starter down the stretch last season.

However, Demercado missed all of those games due to injury. And despite carrying the moniker of a satellite pass-catching back, he’s actually two inches taller and nearly 15 pounds heavier than Carter. Myth No. 1 busted. Oh, Demercado also owns a 20-carry game on the ledger (Week 8, 2023), so he’s done it before. Just saying.

Narrative two surrounding the debate is Carter’s supposed efficacy as a runner—but the fantasy-related head-to-head stats point in Demercado’s direction. See for yourself …

RUSHING STATS, 2023-2025 — Emari Demercado // Michael Carter

Yards Per Rush: 6.0 // 4.8
Yards After Contact Per Rush: 4.4 // 2.6
Target Per Route: 19.1% // 17.5%
Fantasy Points Per Touch: 1.10 // 0.89

How could I forget? Arizona’s expecting a positive game script as a touchdown favorite against the lowly Titans this Sunday, who just allowed RB6 and RB1 overall finishes in back-to-back weeks.

» For more bold starts and sits for Week 5 … read on! ⬇️

BENCH KING HENRY … WHAT?!

Week 5 Smash: Quentin Johnston

Keenan Allen, Tre Harris, Marcus Allen; it doesn’t matter who you bring in, it’s breakout season for Quentin Johnston.

What’s happening in LA with the former Horned Frog is more than a hot start. Johnston has emerged as the downfield threat who has unlocked a new element to the Chargers passing game.

Can you say WR1? If you can’t, the numbers will do it for you.

QJ’s 337 receiving yards through four games rank third league-wide, trailing only Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He leads all Chargers wideouts in utilization score (85), target share (25%) and touchdowns (four). His consistency (seven-plus targets and 70-plus receiving yards in all four games) is only leading to more balls from Justin Herbert. In Week 4, Johnston saw a season-high 13 targets that led to 8 receptions, 98 yards and a touchdown.

Johnston is a rocket about to blast off and there is nothing the Washington Commanders defense can do to stop him.

Simply put—this unit is in shambles.

Last week, Michael Penix Jr. carved up the Commanders for 313 yards while completing 76% of his passes. Yes, the same Penix who was shut out by the Carolina Panthers the previous week.

The concerning outing marked the third consecutive week the Commanders defense fell outside of the top 20 in dropback EPA allowed. During Weeks 2-4, Dan Quinn’s defense has ranked 22nd, 24th and 31st.

Explosive plays? The Commanders secondary has surrendered more explosive pass plays (20-plus yards) than all but six teams. Johnston alone has seven receptions of 20-plus yards, which puts him only one behind the league leaders (Nacua & Smith-Njigba).

Meet me at the smash button. We’re not going to miss this one.

MORE WEEK 5 SMASHES