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Carnell Tate Is Rising Up The Rookie Super Model
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Mike's Hard Lemonade, Carnell Tate rocks the Rookie Super Model, 40-yard dash predictions and NFL rumors.
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Mike's Hard Lemonade:
We are on the verge of the underwear Olympics reaching max hype with TEs beginning on-field workouts at the NFL Scouting Combine today. Tomorrow, the QBs, WR and RBs will join the fold. If you want a full breakdown of what matters most about the combine, you can check out my article from earlier this week.
But ultimately, we are hyped about the combine because it means we are one step closer to the NFL Draft. So, with that in mind, I thought we would take a sneak peek inside our prospect model—The Rookie Super Model—by reviewing the profile for Carnell Tate.
Carnell Tate | WR | Ohio State
- Super Model Rating: 93 (7th since 2018)
- Draft Pick: 7 (based on mock draft data)
- Rookie Age: 21.6 (age when the 2026 NFL season starts)
- Height: 75 inches (pre-NFL Combine)
- Weight: 195 pounds (pre-NFL Combine)
Prospect Summary
Tate was a five-star recruit who played three seasons at Ohio State. He meets the thresholds we are looking for in weight and height based on historical data.
He will be only 21.6 years old when the 2026 NFL season kicks off, making him one of the younger prospects since 2018 at the 88th percentile. Despite battling multiple future first-rounders for playing time, Tate posted a 70% route participation rate during his career as a Buckeye.
Tate registered an 84 production rating, which ranks 25th for first-round NFL Draft picks since 2018.
- Adjusted Career Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt: 54th percentile
- QB Passer Rating When Targeted: 79th percentile
Nerd note: Adjusted Career RYPTPA adjusts for age, strength of schedule (SOS), target competition, QB passer rating, alignment and aDOT. This helps us normalize data across players who played in very different environments.
He improved his RYPTPA each season with marks of 0.79, 1.70 and 2.74. His age-weighted RYPTPA came in at 1.85, which is in the 54th percentile.
Tate is a balanced WR prospect who accessed all depths of the field, doing most of his damage in the short and medium areas.
- Behind the Line of Scrimmage Targets: 10% (average prospect since 2018: 14%)
- Short Targets (0-9 yards): 37% (average prospect since 2018: 36%)
- Medium Targets (10-19 yards): 34% (average prospect since 2018: 26%)
- Deep targets (20+ yards): 19% (average prospect since 2018: 22%)
His career aDOT was 12.9 (59th percentile) with a career yards after catch (YAC) of 4.8 per catch. His YAC came in at -0.5 based on his aDOT.
Nerd note: There is an inverse relationship between aDOT and YAC. As aDOT moves higher, YAC moves lower and vice versa.
He isn't an electric player with the ball in his hands. But Tate was exceptionally good at securing contested targets, snaring 69% over his career—the fifth-highest mark in the history of the Rookie Super Model database.
Lance Zierlein noted Tate's ability to win in contested situations, combining “timing, body control and catch radius.” He also called out his ability to separate over the first two levels of the field with “route savvy and separation burst.” Tate received a 6.75 prospect grade from Zierlein, in line with a Year 1 starter in his grading system.
Fantasy Outlook
- Underdog ADP: WR1, Pick 2
- Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR26, Pick 54
Eleven WRs have garnered a Super Model rating between 88 and 98 since 2018, with 73% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.
- Top-six finishes: 18%
- Top-12 finishes: 27%
- Top-24 finishes: 73%
- Top-36 finishes: 91%
Tate's closest Rookie Super Model prospect comps:
- Chris Olave
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Brian Thomas Jr.
Tate's draft capital is elite. However, his production rating (84) isn't as high as players like Ja'Marr Chase (92), Malik Nabers (90) and CeeDee Lamb (100). It aligns more closely with Olave (88), JSN (85) and BTJ (81), who all rated higher on targeted passer rating than Adjusted Career RYPTPA.
Bottom line: Tate profiles as a WR2 with WR1 upside.
The NFL Scouting Combine is HERE, and that means one thing—it’s time to GO HARD. The stakes haven’t been higher for the incoming rookies taking the field in Indianapolis. Whether you’re glued to your phone for updates or watching from your couch, Mike’s Hard Lemonade is right there with you. Cold. Hard. Refreshing. GO HARD. Grab a Mike’s. Nobody Makes Lemonade Like Mike.
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Who Will Run The Fastest 40 At The Combine?
Get ready to hear the names of Matthew Golden and Xavier Worthy the next couple days. Those feeling nostalgic may even throw out Deion Sanders. Those who are fans of the big boys will recall the earth-shaking performance of Jordan Davis. One of the highlights of NFL Scouting Combine week is the running of the 40-yard dash.
Coach Gene Clemons got in the blocks with his picks on some players who could run up draft boards. Brenen Thompson is a player who will be running for the rarefied air to run a sub-4.3 40:
Brenen Thompson | WR | Mississippi State (Under 4.29 on PrizePicks)
Let's get the talk of the combine out of the way. Can Thompson break the record of 4.21 seconds set by current Kansas City Chiefs receiver Xavier Worthy two seasons ago? The short answer is no. But who cares? The question is can he threaten the record, because if he can, then a 4.29 should be no problem at all. His escapades on the field as a deep threat for the Bulldogs are well known. He averaged 18.5 yards per reception in his final year. I think he will give fans a thrill, but not break the record. He has legitimate track speed. He will look like he is floating down the field because that is how all of the track guys look. It will likely not end in a record, but it will cash your ticket.
RB Jeremiyah Love and TE Kenyon Sadiq are two more players who could turn heads in the next couple days. Will they fly under their expected times? ⤵️
NFL Rumors: Vikings QB Competition Coming Up?
There were definite “growing pains” for JJ. McCarthy in his first year of starting. And we’re not just talking about the pain of him missing seven games due to injury. There were some rough moments, and Jake Trowbridge uncovered that McCarthy might get some company in the QB room:
There have been no minced words regarding J.J. McCarthy. VP of football operations Rob Brzezinski said they’re “casting a wide net” looking for the best option at QB. Oof. But hey, it could be worse. After all, the Vikings would be silly not to weigh all options after such a disastrous season, and I’m probably making too much out of one little phrase and OH WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT, THERE’S MORE:
"What we do know is we need a level of baseline quarterback play for us to be effective.”
OK, yeah, that’s not good at all. That’s like a restaurant owner saying their head chef needs “a baseline of working taste buds.” If that’s where we’re at, disinfect the kitchen and hand over your apron, pal. It wouldn’t shock me to see a true competition for the starting gig. In fact, maybe an old friend comes back for one last spin around the NFL sun.
Jake has plenty of QB chatter ahead of the upcoming carousel that will resemble a game of musical chairs when teams, or QBs, are left without a seat. ⤵️
Around The Watercooler
The latest fantasy and NFL gossip, news, memes and more from our merry band of football nerds …
💪 Trevor Lawrence could use some RB help. Or is Travis Etienne returning?
🏈 Carson Beck going from natty runner-up to the NFL. Game-changer or game manager?
🏋🏽♀️ Keep or cut the bench press? Bro, do you even lift?
🔥 The 5 fastest RB times in combine history. Remember CJ2K.
📺 Watching 40s on the TV while thinking of my rookie drafts.
🏃🏽♂️ Arvell Reese just helped himself a lot. Imagine him coming off the edge.
👀 Anthony Richardson requested a trade. America loves a comeback story.
🤩 George Kittle’s private workout opened a door … to 49ers history.
📋 David Bailey ran faster than who? Distinguished list.
🂱 It’s time for HC report cards. Who got an A+?
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