Do Not Draft In Fantasy Football: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Bo Nix, And More
Matthew Freedman throws cold water on four players—QB, RB, WR and TE—putting them in his Do Not Draft list going into the 2025 fantasy football season.
These are the players who, while it might be head scratching, you don't want to draft. They include a quarterback who survived a rough start to his career to finish his rookie year at QB8. A running back who put up nearly 3,000 scrimmage yards the past two seasons. A WR with 234 catches, 2,778 receiving yards, and 22 TDs since the start of 2023. And a TE who was on his way to eclipsing 100 catches and 1,000 yards before a season-ending ACL tear happened to him with two games left in the 2023 season.
But when it comes to 2025 fantasy football, you need to pass them by. There are other players in their respective draft ranges who should eclipse them in production. And here's why.
QB Bo Nix | Denver Broncos
Every player is draftable at the right price in the right fantasy league … but I can't imagine drafting Bo Nix at cost.
He entered the league in 2024 as a 24-year-old two-school veteran with an NCAA-record 61 starts. With his advanced age and experience, Nix might have been ahead of the curve as a rookie, which could mean that he won't progress as much in his second season as some might expect.And it's not as if Nix was great as a rookie: Last year he ranked No. 19 in composite EPA+ CPOE (0.081) and No. 25 in AY/A (6.7). He was acceptably mediocre.The Broncos offense has improved little this offseason.
The team added TE Evan Engram, who is an undoubted upgrade over Adam Trautman. Even so, Engram is probably not a true difference maker: Last year he had a career-low 365 yards receiving at the age of 30, and he has never had a season of even 60 yards per game. After No. 1 WR Courtland Sutton, the Broncos are unproven at WR, and Sutton turns 30 this fall. If Sutton were to suffer an injury, the passing attack could stagnate.The ceiling for Nix in this offense seems limited, and his floor might be more circumstantially fragile than most fantasy investors expect.Nix could have a perfectly fine season, but I doubt he will provide fantasy value significantly in excess of his mid-tier QB1 price tag.
RB Breece Hall | New York Jets
To start, Breece Hall as a runner might not be as good as second-year RB Braelon Allen, who last year outperformed him in success rate (51.1% vs. 46.4) and rushes per broken tackle (23.0 vs. 29.9), and matched him in yards after contact per attempt (2.1).
Given that Allen is younger (21 vs. 24) and bigger (235 pounds vs. 217), he might steal some of Hall's rushing workload this year.Additionally, new QB Justin Fields is likely to diminish Hall's production in three ways.First, the Jets will probably be less productive with Fields instead of QB Aaron Rodgers (as well as No. 1 WR Davante Adams and starting OTs Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses). With Fields, the Jets offense will likely score fewer points and accumulate fewer yards.Second, Fields is one of the league's best running QBs. The Jets will likely reallocate some of the team's designed rushing attack away from Hall and toward Fields.Third, Fields will be less likely than Rodgers to check the ball down to Hall when pressured in the pocket and more likely to scramble.With all these factors considered, Hall on a per-game basis could have the fewest carries and targets of his career in 2025.And that makes him a dangerous investment as a low-end RB1.WR Amon-Ra St. Brown | Detroit Lions
As talented as Amon-Ra St. Brown is, he still has to compete for opportunities with No. 2 WR Jameson Williams, who has been more efficient on a yards-per-target basis over the past two years (10.2 vs. 9.1) and last season had a career-best 1,001 yards receiving in 15 games. In 2025, Williams might syphon significant work away from St. Brown.
Additionally, there are ascending RB Jahmyr Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta, both of whom in their third seasons could have bigger roles in the Lions pass offense, which could limit St. Brown's upside.On top of that, the Lions could opt to lean more into the running game than they have in previous seasons, given that they have Gibbs, reliable veteran RB David Montgomery, and a defense that has steadily improved in recent seasons.And that means there could be less production for everyone in the pass game … especially if QB Jared Goff (who has previously been mediocre without a strong playcaller) declines without departed OC Ben Johnson, who coaxed out of Goff the best stretch of his career over the past three years (8.2 AY/A).With his ability, St. Brown will always have a solid floor, but collectively all the aforementioned factors conspire to reduce his ceiling, which makes him a furtively risky Round 1 selection in fantasy drafts.TE T.J. Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings
Hailing from Tight End U (Iowa), T.J. Hockenson was a beloved prospect when he entered the league in 2019 as the No. 8 pick, and he is undoubtedly a good player in reality.
But he has been overhyped in fantasy. Not once has Hockenson had 100 receptions or 1,000 yards receiving or more than 6 TDs. Never has he finished in the top three at the position.Hockenson hasn't been bad. Since joining the Vikings via a midseason trade in 2022, he has averaged 57.5 receiving yards per game (including playoffs). But he's behind WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison in pass-game priority. After he ramped up to his full workload last year in Week 12, Hockenson (77% route rate, 18% target share, 19% air share) markedly trailed both Jefferson (97%, 27%, 34%) and Addison (95%, 24%, 34%) in usage.Barring an injury to Jefferson or Addison, the limited Hockenson has almost no chance to rise above his role as the No. 3 receiving option, and that feels like a problem given that QB J.J. McCarthy (as much as I like him) is an unproven second-year player coming off an injury.
For 2025, the Vikings could have a highly uncertain passing attack, which means that Hockenson simply has too little upside and too much downside as a mid-tier TE1.
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