Do's and Don'ts for the Fantasy Football Playoffs

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Mike's Hard Lemonade:

Congratulations, you’ve made it to the 2025 Fantasy Football Playoffs. Now that the easy part is over—wink emoji—we have some suggestions for you that could help you lift your league’s trophy. Let’s call them: “Don’t Do What Johnny Don’t Does” … hmmm, they could’ve made this clearer.

DON’T—Forget To Read The Rules

Original first rule was not rostering multiple players at the unique onesie positions (QB/TE)—until I remembered not all league settings are created equal. If your regressive commissioner restricts Sunday additions, you actually may want to roster a backup to prevent the dreaded goose egg in case of random injury emergency.

Crazy stuff happens. I’ve seen it! Anyway, it’s better to have them and not need them than the other way around. Avoid zeros at all costs!

In all other normal leagues, I’m known to trim every ounce of excess fat on the roster come the second season—we’re talking kickers and defenses included! I’d rather have two extra backup RBs, who could theoretically move the needle going into game day more than 90% of D/STs.

DO—Start Your Studs

Outside of extenuating circumstances or tremendous gaps in projections, show some decency and dance with the person who brought you here. Think about the depth of the footprint that belongs on your backside for losing because you benched Jonathan Taylor in Seattle. Some ships are worth going down with no matter what …

DON’T—Double Count Weather

One of, if not the most repeated fantasy story last week was how weather systems were wreaking havoc on sinking game totals nationwide. Well, we got 54 points in Cleveland, 55 in Jacksonville’s “Storm Of The Century" and 73 snow-covered points in Buffalo’s frozen tundra. Short of the rare apocalyptic condition, no need to overreact whatsoever.

DO—Anticipate Opportunity

Gather ‘round for my favorite fantasy football story, everyone. I’m about to date myself—hopefully the lesson’s worth it. Way back in 2011, the unstoppable duo of “Megatron” Calvin Johnson and a much younger Matthew Stafford carried every GM who drafted the Lions’ stack into the playoffs, with or without a viable RB.

Come playoff time, super stud Matt Forte went down for Chicago, suddenly opening up a million touches in the Bears backfield. I didn’t have priority for Marion Barber, but I doubted his explosiveness, so I scooped RB3 Khalil Bell. One waiver add and 27 Week 16 touches later, I’m well on my way to picking up a brand-new trophy. Maybe you had to be there ...

DON’T—Roster WRs You Wouldn’t Start Tomorrow

The season for stashing is behind us. Target earners are who they thought they were at this point. In other words, there’s no time to speculate. Instead, pivot toward stacking your bench with every available RB on two feet who could conceivably get a dozen touches and a goal-line carry.

Scour the waiver wire for any player you could fathom starting in a doomsday scenario.

DO—Kick That Ball Inside The House

As random as kicker points are, I’m always going to use optimal environments to my advantage. Unlike skill position players, it’s OK to be sensitive to weather reports, especially with these new juiced balls. Contextual surroundings mean more to me than chasing implied totals, for example, where 28 points on the board could mean just a four-burger in your fantasy K slot.

GOOD LUCK!

That takes care of the micros, now on to those all-important macros. If you have any fantasy questions specific to your league at all, I’ll be manning an AMA on Reddit for Fantasy Life at 1 p.m. EST. Get those questions in early; last time got pretty busy.

ONTO YOUR WEEK 15 WAIVER WIRE GUIDE

Being a Commish is Thankless—But No Longer

If you're reading this newsletter, you likely have a Commissioner in your life. Maybe several. MAYBE IT'S YOU!! Either way, we all know it's a thankless job—constant emails and texts about rules, plus an endless stream of issues: "can we redo that pick, my computer froze" ... "I didn't mean to drop Bucky Irving!" ... "When is the trade deadline?!" ... "How many teams make the playoffs?"—it's nightmare fuel.

As mentioned—thankless—UNTIL NOW

You have one mission today — get your commissioner PAID! Mike's Hard Lemonade wants to help you do it. For the first time ever, Mike's is offering a straight-up endorsement deal to one lucky Fantasy Commissioner as part of the Mike's Fantasy Endorsement Deal contest! Registration ends on Dec. 9, so do it now, PLEASE, before you forget. The winner gets:

a $25,000 "contract"
and a bunch of other cool swag, clout and aura!

Go to MikesFantasyEndorsementDeal.com NOW. Be part of history. And maybe you'll—how did that happen?!—end up with the No. 1 pick next year!

NOMINATE YOUR COMMISH NOW!

_{NO PURCH. NEC. U.S./D.C. Nominator, 21+; Nominee, 25+. Obtain consent of Nominee. Ends 12/9. Winner (Nominee) not hired as product endorser. Void where prohibited. Rules @}_{https://www.mikesfantasyendorsementdeal.com}_{. Sponsor: Mark Anthony Brands Inc., Chicago, IL. MIKE’S IS HARD. SO IS PRISON. DON’T DRIVE DRUNK® PREMIUM MALT BEVERAGE WITH FLAVORS. All registered trademarks used under license by Mike’s Hard Lemonade Co., Chicago, IL}

About Last Night …

Nothing like a little overtime to decide a turnover-fest with—take a guess—a tipped interception to seal a 22-19 victory for the Chargers over the Eagles. Justin Herbert played with a broken bone in his hand. Jalen Hurts did something hardly ever seen. And we had an unexpected high scorer:

Omarion Hampton, nice to see you back. Ride or die!
Couldn’t get enough of the Monsters Inc. broadcast. And Sulley’s ADP?
The internet remained undefeated in reacting to Hurts turning the ball over TWICE on ONE PLAY. Here’s proof it really happened.
If you started Hurts … sorry.
Saquon Barkley went for 122 yards and a score, but wasn’t top scorer. Wait, the kicker?
Tony Jefferson with the tipped pick and Chargers D calls ballgame.

WAS THIS SAQUON’S BEST GAME OF THE YEAR?

The #1 Utilization Takeaway From Week 14 Is …

1. Dan Campbell is feeding Jahmyr Gibbs.

The fantasy football season is full of seasons within a season. In the first month, Christian McCaffrey was the RB1 with 24 points per game (PPG). Then Jonathan Taylor took over the mantle in October with 31.7 PPG. November unlocked De'Von Achane to the tune of 27.1 PPG. Now, Gibbs is looking to claim the RB1 distinction for December in the fantasy playoffs.

Often, these surges can be due to variance. For example, all of the backs above are good players who have been in steady roles this year; they just got hot at different times. The notable part is that Gibbs' role has changed since Campbell assumed play-calling duties. Since Week 10, Gibbs has averaged a mind-blowing 32.4 points with a 93 Utilization Score over five games with Campbell clutching the playsheet.

Just how much has his Gibbs role changed?

Snaps: 62% → 67%
Attempts: 52% → 62% (14.1 → 14.6 per game)
Routes: 52% → 62%
Targets: 14% → 23% (3.9 → 7.0)
Utilization Score: 80 → 93
Fantasy PPG: 18.2 → 32.4

While the former Round 1 NFL Draft pick is up across all categories, his surge in targets is the big difference. It has put him in the same category as CMC and Achane as an elite dual-threat RB. However, he is more explosive than CMC and in a better offense than either CMC or Achane.

Of backs with at least 150 attempts, Gibbs ranks second behind Achane in yards per carry (5.7), and third in percentage of carries to go for 10-plus yards (14%). The Lions' offense ranks second in TDs per drive (33%) behind the Rams (36%).

Of course, this uptick in passing-game involvement isn't entirely tied to Campbell's playcall sheet. Sam LaPorta was placed on IR in Week 11. Historically, across the NFL, we have seen a macro relationship between the give-and-take between RB and TE targets. When TEs are up, RBs are down, and vice versa. This isn't true in every case, but there is something to it. And in this case, Gibbs—who was the best receiving RB prospect since CMC and Alvin Kamara—is maximizing the absence of LaPorta with a whopping 7.8 targets per game.

If you have Gibbs on your fantasy roster, it is very likely to be a massive advantage for your fantasy team during the stretch run—he isn't a lock to be the RB1 in December, but if I were drafting today, he would be the No. 1 pick.

Gibbs' 21 historical Utilization Score (93) comparisons have averaged 19.6 points per game, with 81% finishing in the top six. The other 19% were in RB7 to RB12 territory.

Gibbs is an elite high-end RB1 with a great chance to finish the season as the most valuable player in the fantasy playoffs.

» For the rest of Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report ahead of Week 15, click below!

THE UTILIZATION REPORT FOR WEEK 15

Early Week 15 Rankings: QB1 Headed for Massive AFC East Showdown

Josh Allen has been one of the most consistent players in fantasy football since his 2020 breakout. How consistent? Well, Ian Hartitz painted the picture when releasing his Week 15 Early Rankings:

“QB1 Josh Allen: Fantasy's overall QB1 has posted top-2 per-game numbers at the position in six consecutive seasons. Pretty, pretty, pretty good—and if there was ever a time to make sure the Superman cape is freshly ironed, it's probably ahead of Sunday's rather massive AFC East battle against the Patriots.”

In his early rankings, Ian provides more super information for fantasy managers to learn from for the first round of the fantasy playoffs. He goes through each position with insight, in one section highlighting Emeka Egbuka’s recent slide after he looked primed for a breakout rookie season. Though more breakout performances are possible. Here’s more.⤵️

PLENTY FLEX-WORTHY RBs FOR WEEK 15