Early Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings: Puka Nacua, Drake Maye Continue to Shine
Ian Hartitz has released his early fantasy football rankings for Week 5, highlighting Puka Nacua, Drake Maye, Javonte Williams, Tyler Warren and more.
Hide your kids, hide your wife: Week 5 is here. It's time to win another fantasy matchup, people!
What follows are my abbreviated early PPR ranks along with some key questions and answers ahead of this week's slate of action. Check out our Fantasy Life Rankings for full ranks from our squad of alleged expert rankers (code "Ian" for 20% off!).
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Early Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings
Quarterback
Who has been the best second-year QB through four weeks?
This study isn't totally fair considering Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy have played just two games, and the below numbers were pulled before Bo Nix's Monday night matchup against the Bengals.
But hey, shoutout to Drake Maye and Caleb Williams for very much looking the part of franchise QBs through four weeks of action. Among 34 qualified QBs …
Pretty fantastic stuff from Mr. Maye in particular, who also continues to not exactly be surrounded by the world's finest supporting cast. He won't get to play the Panthers every week, unfortunately, but the North Carolina product/Cam Newton superfan is more than deserving of upside QB1 treatment in fantasy land ahead of next Sunday night's matchup against the Bills' banged-up defense.
Who have been the league's most pass-happy attacks?
We can calculate this using Fantasy Life's "Dropback Rate Over Expected" metric, which accounts for things like game script to give us a good idea of an offense's true pass-play rate.
Anyway, 11 teams have posted a positive DBOE through four weeks of action.
Highest dropback rate over expected this season:
- Chargers (+8%)
- Cardinals (+8%)
- Chiefs (+7%)
- Dolphins (+5%)
- Patriots (+3%)
- Jaguars (+3%)
- Broncos (+2%)
- 49ers (+2%)
- Ravens (+2%)
- Bears (+1%)
- Cowboys (+1%)
The major surprise here relative to preseason expectations is Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Overall, Herbert has averaged a whopping 37.3 pass attempts per game—quite the increase from last season's 29.6 mark.
Up next for Herbert and the Chargers is a potential shootout against the Commanders; the matchup's 47.5-point game total is tied for the third-highest mark of the week in early betting markets. Unfortunately, this offense suffered ANOTHER key offensive line loss with LT Joe Alt (high-ankle sprain) a candidate to miss multiple weeks of action, but I still like a bounceback from fantasy's QB11 in fantasy points per game against a defense that ranks among the league's bottom-five units in team PFF coverage grade and EPA allowed per dropback this season.
Best of the rest
QB13 Brock Purdy: Returned to action after missing two weeks with a toe injury, looked rusty, tossed two not-great interceptions … and still threw for 309 yards and a pair of TDs. We'll need to keep an eye on his toe and the respective statuses of Ricky Pearsall (knee) and Jauan Jennings (ankle, shoulder, ribs) ahead of their Thursday night clash with the Rams, but Purdy generally deserves the benefit of the doubt when healthy enough to suit up. After all, the man is the NFL's all-time QB1 in career yards per attempt (8.8) and passer rating (103.7) among all signal-callers with at least 16 starts in the Super Bowl era.
QB14 Baker Mayfield: Has been playing with fire a bit this season—only Spencer Rattler (10) has more turnover-worthy plays than Mayfield (9), despite Baker throwing only one interception—but the return of Chris Godwin does give this banged-up offense some much-needed juice in the passing game. The Seahawks aren't the world's easiest matchup; just realize Mayfield is the QB8 thanks to continued passing success (NFL-best 77 passing TDs dating back to Week 1, 2023) and hilariously efficient rushing success. Consider: Mayfield has converted 75% of his scrambles into first downs this season—easily the best rate among all QBs with at least three scrambles.
QB16 Jaxson Dart: While Dart's starting debut wasn't exactly filled with all good (111 passing yards, 5 sacks), a win is a win is a win, and the rookie wasn't exactly set up for a major boom against Jesse Minter's Chargers defense—particularly after Malik Nabers (ACL) was lost for the season midway through the second quarter. This loss obviously weakens Dart's fantasy upside, but he could still f*ck around and post some borderline QB1 numbers if this rushing usage continues. Consider: Dart's 11.4 fantasy points from purely rushing were good for the ninth-highest single-game mark this season—and he would've finished inside the top five had this electric 39-yard scramble not been called back on a hold.
QB17 Sam Darnold: Is currently playing the position as well as anyone in the league. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, expectations must be held at least somewhat in check due to Klint Kubiak deploying the league's third-most run-heavy offense in terms of DBOE. But hey, kudos to the much-maligned journeyman for playing some truly awesome football in Seattle. That's him in the upper right-hand corner on the below chart next to some of the league's other top-performing QBs.
QB19 Trevor Lawrence: On the one hand, the Jaguars have dropped a league-high 13 passes. On the other hand, T-Law has the league's lowest pressure rate (22.7%) and the longest average time to pressure (2.7 seconds). Maybe Lawrence eventually gets on the same page with his pair of alleged stud first-round receivers, but for now I'm not going out of my way to start anyone involved in this sadly underwhelming passing attack.
QB23 Bryce Young: Ranks dead last in yards per attempt (5.7), EPA per dropback (-0.13), passer rating (77.3) and completion rate (60%) since entering the NFL. Not great!
Running Back
What RBs have been the best and worst values relative to preseason ADP through four weeks?
In terms of current rank in PPR points per game vs. final preseason ADP the best values have been:
- Cowboys RB Javonte Williams (RB7, ADP RB39)
- Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins (RB14, ADP RB38)
- Jaguars RB Travis Etienne (RB10, ADP RB31)
- Browns RB Quinshon Judkins (RB11, ADP RB29)
- Giants RB Cam Skattebo (RB19, ADP RB37)
Shoutout to Williams, Dobbins and Etienne for proving that "boring" veterans are still capable of supplying fun fantasy point totals as the clear-cut starting RBs of good real-life offenses. Obviously the latter two rookies benefited from suspension/contract uncertainty (Judkins) and injuries (Skattebo), but either way credit to both for making the most out of their opportunities: Judkins ranks second among all RBs in yards after contact per rush (4.2), while Skattebo has worked as the position's 10th-best talent in missed tackles forced per carry (22.9%).
As for the worst values of the season so far…
- Derrick Henry (RB24, ADP RB5)
- Chase Brown (RB33, ADP RB12)
- Isiah Pacheco (RB45, ADP RB23)
- RJ Harvey (RB53, ADP RB22)
- Kaleb Johnson (RB87, ADP RB27)
Henry's usage has been a bit maddening so far; he's averaging a ridiculous 5.8 yards per carry, but hasn't had more than 12 rush attempts in a game since Week 1. The Ravens' banged-up defense and ability of pass-down back Justice Hill haven't helped matters, but I'd be surprised if Henry's cold streak lasts much longer.
Harvey also deserves credit for largely making the most out of his opportunities (6.1 yards per touch), but it's tougher to be as kind to Brown (NFL-high 47 carries without a 12-yard rush, pre-MNF), Pacheco (career-low 4 yards per carry and behind Kareem Hunt in total rush attempts), and Johnson (clear-cut RB3 on his own team and averaging 2.6 yards per carry). The latter rookie could have a particularly tough road to fantasy relevance after how good No. 2 RB Kenneth Gainwell looked in Week 4.
Which RBs have balled out the most this season?
Some of the league's top RBs simply haven't managed to get much going in the long-run department this season. Overall, Josh Jacobs (80 carries), Saquon Barkley (77), Bucky Irving (71), Christian McCaffrey (nice) and Kyren Williams (68) lead the league in terms of most rush attempts *without* a long run of at least 20 yards. Now, several of those guys have thrived as pasvcatchers and still have managed to put up plenty of fantasy points anyway; just realize the position's bigger names have largely struggled on the ground through four weeks of action.
Of course, football is a team sport, and no position is more dependent on performance of their teammates than RB The below chart shows every RB's yards after contact and missed tackles forced per carry in an attempt to grind down RB performance into individual factors.
It's tougher for RBs with a lot of volume to really stand out in these sorts of charts; I wouldn't panic too much about Saquon or Bucky's standing here. That said, a few takeaways…
- Woah, Kendre Miller! The Saints RB2 is obviously stuck behind Alvin Kamara, but the potential for an injury—Or dare I say trade?—does make him an intriguing bench stash in deeper leagues. He's deserving of upper-tier waiver wire treatment this week.
- Bijan Robinson is so f*cking good. The man is currently on pace to breeze past 1,000 yards rushing AND receiving for the season—something only Christian McCaffrey, Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig have managed to do in the history of the NFL.
- Turns out those rookie first-round picks are quite good at football! Thank goodness the Raiders came to their senses and let Ashton Jeanty get back to using his Michael Myers stance.
- FREE BILL.
- Small-sample size be damned, TreVeyon Henderson hasn't exactly played his way into more touches.
Which Players have had the worst TD luck around the goal line?
Every week I decide to embrace the pain and look up which players got tackled at the 1-yard line and did NOT score a TD on the same drive.
*Law and Order music*
These are their stories:
- Giants RB Cam Skattebo (x2, same drive)
- Packers RB Josh Jacobs
- Steelers RB Kenneth Gainwell
- Jets RB Braelon Allen (lost fumble)
- Cowboys WR George Pickens
- Colts WR Adonai Mitchell (lost fumble)
- Vikings WR Jordan Addison
- Browns WR Cedric Tillman
- Packers TE Tucker Kraft (x2, different drives)
- Patriots TE Hunter Henry
- Panthers TE Tommy Tremble
- Browns QB Joe Flacco (x2, same drive)
Best of the rest
RB25 Woody Marks: Broke out with 17-69-1 rushing and 4-50-1 receiving lines during the Texans' Week 4 win over the Titans. The waiver wire darling pretty clearly looks like the best backfield option in Houston, although it's not guaranteed that Nick Chubb takes a complete back seat. Either way: I want Marks on fantasy teams of all shapes and sizes with Joe Mixon's return looking very unlikely at this point. Marks looks a lot like the RB1 in Houston, and he'll be even higher up in the ranks come Week 6 if this utilization trend continues to build.
RB29 Isiah Pacheco: It was good to see Pacheco find the end zone as a receiver last week, and there should be more fantasy-friendly scoring opportunities to go around as Patrick Mahomes continues to get healthy WRs back in the lineup. Still, Kareem Hunt leads this backfield in rush attempts (36 vs. 32) and Pacheco hasn't exactly dominated targets (9 of the backfield's 21). Add it all together, and you have a mid-tier RB3 ahead of Sunday night's tough matchup against the Jaguars' feisty front-seven.
RB27 TreVeyon Henderson and RB28 Rhamondre Stevenson: We were hoping for a breakthrough in usage for TreVeyon in Week 4 … and got nothing. Not cool! Of course, Henderson hasn't exactly helped his cause by averaging fewer yards per carry (3.7) than Stevenson (4) and Antonio Gibson (4.5) alike. The hope is that expected negative game script brings out some fantasy-friendly receiving goodness from the rookie, but either way the Ohio State product isn't close to being a must-start fantasy option at the moment.
RB30 Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Bill has largely made the most out of his opportunities this season (5.9 yards per carry), but so has Jeremy McNichols (10.6) and Chris Rodriguez (5.4). Washington has shown no desire to fully feature the rookie training camp Hall of Famer to this point, leaving him as an efficiency-based RB3 who doesn't need to be jammed into starting lineups.
RB34 Zach Charbonnet: 44th among 45 qualified players in yards per carry (2.5) this season, although Charbs deserves some level of slack for typically being used in run-first/short-yardage situations. Overall, Charbonnet—and Kenneth Walker—are the only two RBs to face eight-plus defenders in the box on at least 40% of their carries this season. Note that KWIII's only two rush attempts inside the 5-yard line came in Week 3 against the Saints with Charbonnet sidelined. Walker deserves low-end RB2 treatment thanks to the potential for 15-plus touches inside an offense that has impressed through four weeks, but it'd be a lot cooler if this backfield fully consolidated around the man who sure seems to be the superior back.
Wide Receiver
Have certain WRs really separated themselves from the pack?
You bet. I tried to give Puka Nacua a bad nickname like the "Chart slayer" or "Chart breaker" this offseason because of his tendency to skew any efficiency graph by being so far and away superior to everyone, but this year he actually has some early company in the top-right corner of charts!
The PPR WR1 and WR6, Puka and JSN have largely dominated all season long and deserve upside WR1 treatment the rest of the way. The current 17-game receiving yards pace for both Nacua (2,138) and Smith-Njigba (1,708) are wild. Football! Hell, yeah!
Who was so close, yet so far away to having a big Week 4?
"Unrealized air yards" measure the total amount of air yards on incomplete targets. This helps identify players who had all sorts of fantasy-friendly downfield opportunities, but they simply couldn't come up with completions for one reason or another.
Anyway, nine players had more than 70 unrealized air yards in Week 4 (pre-MNF):
- Lions WR Jameson Williams (195)
- Colts WR Michael Pittman (130)
- Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin (124)
- Eagles WR A.J. Brown (117)
- Browns WR Jerry Jeudy (110)
- Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka (88)
- Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy (87)
- Broncos WR Troy Franklin (87)
- Bears TE Cole Kmet (73)
That Jamo number is truly ridiculous: It's the third-highest single-game mark going back to at least 2022. Obviously, having under 50 receiving yards in three of his first four games hasn't been ideal; just realize the Lions are trying, and I wouldn't bet on the speedy fourth-year field-stretcher staying quiet for too much longer.
Otherwise the big takeaways here were the return of two injured WRs:
- Xavier Worthy: Played a near full-time role with 71% of the offense's routes in his first game back from suffering a dislocated shoulder. The Chiefs certainly didn't ease Worthy back into action, as the second-year speedster racked up a team-high eight targets and tacked on two rush attempts for good measure. I'm firing up Worthy as a legit WR1 with confidence while Rashee Rice remains suspended.
- Chris Godwin: Caught only 3 of 10 targets, but passed the eye test and wasn't at all limited (91% routes). There should be more than enough meat on the bone for both Godwin and Emeka Egbuka to ball out during Mike Evans' (hamstring) absence; I'm riding with Godwin as my WR32 for now, but that admittedly already feels low—he's be firmly inside the position's top 24 if/when we get some realized production on the table.
Best of the rest
WR26 Michael Pittman: Currently working as the WR13 in PPR points per game. Now, Pittman has run hot in the TD department (3 on 29 targets), but to the man's credit: He's posted PPR per-game finishes as the WR24, WR22, WR14 and WR45 before this season, with the latter mark coming during a campaign where he was playing through a broken back. I'm not totally convinced Pittman's target lead over Josh Downs (29 vs. 19) remains so wide; either way he's a recommended start and someone who I might need to squeeze inside the top 24 this time next week.
WR27 Marvin Harrison Jr.: Is working as the WR29 this season even though it feels so much worse. Blame deserves to go all around: Marv has three drops on the year, Kyler Murray hates throwing to his WRs, and OC Drew Petzing's scheme has utilized both pre-snap shift/motion and play-action at below-average rates. Maybe this week's matchup against the Titans' bottom-seven defense in EPA allowed per dropback and PPR points allowed to opposing WRs serves as a get-right spot for everyone involved, but I'm skeptical.
WR34 Wan'Dale Robinson and WR49 Darius Slayton: We as a society cannot have nice things, and accordingly Malik Nabers (ACL) is done for the season. Pain. This obviously boosts the next two men up the ranks, although we should probably pump the brakes on the overall upside of this Giants passing game as a whole. It'd make sense if Brian Daboll puts more on Dart's plate in the future, but last week the Giants posted a -14% dropback rate over expected—the second-lowest mark ahead of only … their Week 5 opponent, the Saints (-16%). Only Vikings-Browns (36.5) has a lower game total than Giants-Saints (40.5); I'm happy choosing the other guy in close start/sit decisions involving most parties involved in these matchups.
WR35 Stefon Diggs: Just notched his first game with 100-plus receiving yards since October 2023. Hell, yeah! Yes, it was against the Panthers. Also yes, the Panthers are a top-two defense in fewest receiving yards per game allowed to opposing WRs. Up next is a revenge game special against the Bills in Orchard Park; I'm tentatively treating Diggs as a volume-based WR3 inside this hopefully ascending passing attack.
WR39 Calvin Ridley: Rookie QB Cam Ward has thrown for 112, 175, 219 and most recently 108 passing yards, respectively, this season. There have been a few cool/dangerous highlights featuring the No. 1 overall pick showing off his arm talent by throwing back across the field, but yeah: Things have otherwise been horrible. Just ask Cam. Now, it would make sense if this passing game improves as the season goes on—they really can't get any worse—but there are two winnable matchups ahead against the Cardinals (22nd in EPA allowed per dropback) and Raiders (24th). I guess I'm saying there's a chance!
WR40 Jerry Jeudy: Maybe Jeudy can start to turn around his disappointing start, but man, things have not gone well so far. The expected multi-week absence of Cedric Tillman (hamstring) helps; just realize pretty much nothing but bad things have happened when Joe Flacco has looked the veteran's way through four weeks. Overall, Jeudy's four drops are tied for the second most in the league, while only Jakobi Meyers (4) has been targeted more than Jeudy (3) on passes that were ultimately intercepted. Oh, you want one more horrific stat? Fine: Jeudy (26) joins Travis Hunter (37.5) as the only two players with at least 15 targets this season and a passer rating when targeted lower than 39.6, AKA what a QB receives from simply spiking the football into the ground.
Tight End
What tight ends are in our fantasy circle of trust?
Tight end is probably the most frustrating position to figure out in fantasy football because there's usually not much consistency outside of the position's top handful of performers.
With this in mind: What TEs are both scoring fantasy points and demanding the sort of target shares to give us reason to believe the good times will continue?
Horrific excuse for a circle aside: It's clear Jake Ferguson, Trey McBride, Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, Juwan Johnson (although his competition are nearing returns), and, despite still not looking 100%, Brock Bowers deserve no-doubt starting treatment thanks to their proven volume and production.
The trickier fringe candidates:
- Kyle Pitts: Has firmly passed the eye test on his way to catching a career-high 83.3% of his targets. We haven't seen a huge boom just yet, but the potential for Darnell Mooney (hamstring) to miss time could lead to even more opportunities for the ever-hyped former fourth overall pick. TE-needy rosters in shallow leagues should take an extra close look at the waiver wire this week to see if Pitts happens to hit the open market while on bye.
- Hunter Henry: Came within inches of scoring two TDs last Sunday. Unfortunately, the afforded targets have been too inconsistent (8, 3, 11 and 2) to fire up the veteran as a weekly must-start option. The fact that Maye and this passing game are doing good things certainly keeps Henry in the weekly TE1 conversation. I'm just not quite ready to assume his current top-three standing is here to stay.
- Dalton Kincaid: Like Henry, it's good to see Kincaid largely making the most out of his opportunities. Also like Henry: We simply haven't seen enough consistency in the target department (4, 6, 6 and 2) to fire up the former first-round pick as a no-doubt top-five option at the position. "Everyone eats" is an awesome mantra for the real-life Bills, but not so much for the fantasy aspirations of everyone in the offense not named Josh Allen or James Cook.
Best of the rest
TE13 Harold Fannin and TE14 David Njoku: Shoutout to Fannin for leading the position in total missed tackles forced (11) this season. He's edging out Njoku in total targets (24 vs. 21) on the year and looks like the superior playmaker with the football in his hands. Thus, gimme the rookie straight up at this point, although it remains tough to be overly excited about either player with the Browns QB situation predictably looking horrible.
TE15 T.J. Hockenson: I have no faith in Carson Wentz leading this Vikings passing game to anything close to resembling high-end production against the Browns in London this Sunday, but I do appreciate Hockenson's attempt at hurdling multiple dudes in the middle of the field last week.
TE16 Brenton Strange: Shoutout to the Jaguars' leading receiver (!) for also being more than willing to do the dirty work. Strange is PFF's top-ranked run-blocking TE among all players at the position with at least 10 targets. Hell, he's third straight up even when removing the target requirement. Just look at the man help pave the way for Travis Etienne on this TD! I'm hesitant in overly trusting ANYONE involved in this Jags passing game at the moment, but Strange certainly looks the part of a long-term starter at the position.
TE19 Theo Johnson: Found the end zone last week on a shovel pass and profiles as a likely top-four target in this Nabers-less offense the rest of the way. Reminder: Johnson is a FREAK athlete and joined Strange as partially responsible parties for holding back Tyler Warren's breakout at Penn State. It'd be cooler if Johnson's route rate was north of 80%, but desperate fantasy managers in need of a bye-week fill-in can't be too picky.
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