We have hit peak drafting season. With less than two weeks to the start of the NFL season and most of the meaningful preseason action done, fantasy football rankings and fantasy football ADP are solidifying. It is time for final draft preparations, which means deciding which players to target and which to fade. 

Last year's results tend to carry the most weight in our minds, but it is important to not fall into the trap of assuming 2023 stats are the baseline when evaluating players. Remembering the context of which players ran hot and who was unlucky is critical to identifying players who are overvalued and undervalued. Let's take a look at some of the top candidates for positive and negative regression heading into the 2024 season.

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Positive Regression

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints

Chris Olave has quietly had more than 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first two seasons. Despite being drafted in the second or third round this year he usually isn't discussed in the same breath as other elite young receivers. That could easily change if we see some positive TD luck for the first time in his NFL career.

Last season, Olave underperformed expectations for both receiving yards and receiving TDs. The PFF Expected Points model had him 120 yards and 1.6 TDs below expectation. The expected points from his role last season were good for the 13th most among WRs, but he only ended up accumulating the 22nd-most half-PPR fantasy points at the position. 

Entering his third season with the Saints and as the clear top target, his role should stay the same or improve in 2023. If he just maintains the role he had last season, we should expect his fantasy scoring to improve, but he also has the upside to see a bigger role. He has minimal target competition with Rashid Shaheed and Juwan Johnson behind him in the target pecking order. If he stays healthy, 150 targets is a very realistic outcome for Olave. In that scenario, we can expect his fantasy scoring to improve through volume, even if his efficiency doesn't bounce back.

Whether it is through volume or improved efficiency (or hopefully both), Olave has multiple paths to topping his fantasy output from last season.

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Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are one of my favorite bounce-back offenses to bet on after they underperformed expectations last season. That production will flow through to several players in this offense, but Charbonnet is one 

As a rookie last season, Charbonnet grew into a bigger role over the course of the year. He played 50+% of snaps in eight of 11 games from Week 8 on. Over the course of the full season, he posted better yards per carry and yards after contact per attempt numbers than Kenneth Walker did. He also received 13 carries inside the 10-yard line, just six fewer than Walker had. Charbs also saw more targets than Walker in 2023, a role he could continue to consolidate in his second season. All things considered, it was a solid rookie campaign.

The offseason reports have been very positive on Walker, but Charbonnet should have a real role in this offense right out of the gate. I'm viewing his workload from last season as his 2024 floor with plenty of room for that role to grow, and a possible workhorse outcome if Walker misses meaningful time.

The biggest thing that held back Charbonnet's fantasy value last season was his lack of TDs. He only scored once despite being in a 40/60 split with Walker for carries around the goal line. The PFF Expected Points model had him at 4.4 expected rushing TDs last season so even if his role doesn't grow much in 2024, he is expected to score 3.9 combined TDs in our Fantasy Life projections. When we consider the possibility that the Seahawks offense could be better (leading to more overall goal-line opportunities) as well as his contingent value, the arrow is pointing up for Charbonnet's value in 2024. 

Negative Regression

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This one makes me nervous because Mike Evans has been one of the most consistent players in the NFL over the last decade with 10 straight 1,000-yard seasons. That being said, there are reasons to think it will be difficult for him to repeat what he did last season when he scored the fifth-most fantasy points at the WR position.

The biggest red flag from a statistical perspective is the fact that both his aDOT and his yards after the catch per reception spiked last season. Those two metrics tend to be negatively correlated so it was quite unusual to see Evans do what he did. In fact, his 4.2 yards after the catch per reception were a career high and well above his career average of 3.1 YAC per reception. Those YAC numbers are likely to regress toward his career average and it wouldn't be a surprise if his aDOT comes down a little bit as well. This will make it difficult for him to match the 1,255 receiving yards he put up in 2023. 

Beyond the statistical regression, there are other red flags in Evans' profile this year. The Bucs lost OC Dave Canales to the Panthers and added a talented rookie WR in Jalen McMillan, who has been receiving rave reviews so far in training camp. There is a decent chance the Bucs offense is less efficient than last season, and even if they aren't, the increased target competition could impact Evans' production. Lastly, Evans is now 31 years old and likely past his peak athletic years. His play style should age well, but it is still a risk to be aware of if you plan on spending a third-round pick on Evans.

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

The case against Kittle is actually very similar to the case against Evans. Kittle's aDOT and yards after the catch per reception also spiked last season, which propelled him to a career-high in yards per reception. In Kittle's case, it was his aDOT that was a career-high but his YAC per reception (7.3) was also well above his average in recent years (hasn't topped 6.5 since 2019).

It might be difficult to remember but Kittle actually posted one of the least efficient seasons of his career in 2022, but it was largely covered up by the fact that he scored a career-high 11 TDs. Now entering his age 31 season, it is reasonable to assume his most efficient seasons are behind him.

Also similar to Evans, Kittle's target competition is likely as strong as it has ever been with Brandon Aiyuk likely to stay in San Francisco and the team drafting a first-round WR this year in Ricky Pearsall. If Aiyuk does get traded, that will change things, but for now, Kittle is no better than the third option in the passing game (possibly fourth behind CMC). 

All of these factors will make it difficult for Kittle to post one of his better seasons in 2024. I still expect some huge games from him, but don't be surprised if he delivers a number of duds as well.

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