Matthew Freedman examines the betting markets to predict how players taken in Round 1 of the NFL Draft could produce for fantasy football as rookies.

Just when you thought that the smoke had cleared from the first day of the NFL Draft, DraftKings and FanDuel have already posted a few props for the 2025 rookies—and sickos that we are, we already have Fantasy Life player projections for them.

Here's how our numbers compare with the market for five rookies.

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Cam Ward's Rookie Projections

At FanDuel, Cam Ward has a passing yardage prop of 3,205.5, and at DraftKings he has a 50% implied probability to hit 3,250 yards and 20 TDs passing.

Those numbers feel right. We have him projected for 3,383 yards and 19.9 TDs passing.

In our Fantasy Life dynasty rookie rankings, I have him slotted as a low-end Round 1 guy. In superflex, you can make an argument for him going No. 2, right after …

Ashton Jeanty An OROY Favorite

Ashton Jeanty's rushing yardage prop at FanDuel is a laughably low 999.5. I've already bet the over and logged it in our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

At DraftKings, he's -110 to have 1,100 yards rushing, which is right in line with our projection of 1,114.

In all rookie formats, Jeanty is the easy No. 1 selection, and in redraft, best ball, and Guillotine Leagues he's a locked-in Round 1 pick. 

I like him at +340 to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year (FanDuel).

Travis Hunter Utilization Quandary

The "problem" with Travis Hunter is that we don't know the extent to which he'll be a full-time pass catcher in the NFL. And he'll need to compete with No. 1 WR Brian Thomas for targets.

As a result, despite Hunter's unquestioned upside, we have him projected for a modest rookie campaign with 704 yards and 4.3 TDs receiving.

At FanDuel, his receiving yardage prop is 650.5. At DraftKings, he's -110 to hit 700 yards and -155 to have five TDs receiving.

Drafters will likely invest in him because of his upside, but his first-year median expectations should be kept in check. 

Tetairoa McMillan Looking At WR1 Role

I've already bet the over on FanDuel's receiving yardage prop of 800.5 for Tetairoa McMillan, who is also undervalued (in my opinion) on DraftKings, where he's -110 to have 800 yards and five TDs receiving.

I have no issue with his TD prop. We have him projected for 4.9. But his yardage prop is way out of line with our projection of 952.

He immediately should be the No. 1 receiver in his offense, he has a competent playcaller in HC Dave Canales, and QB Bryce Young improved last year in his second season.

There's no real reason McMillan's yardage prop should be this low.

Too Bullish On Colston Loveland?

Colston Loveland is -135 at DraftKings to hit 700 yards receiving. And he's -115 to have at least five TDs.

But both of those numbers seem aggressive, given our projections of 593 and 3.9.

I like Loveland, but he'll need to compete with WRs DJ Moore and Rome Odunze for targets.

Although Loveland went No. 10 overall, we shouldn't expect anything close to a Brock Bowers-like performance from him as a rookie.

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