Fantasy football draft szn is upon us. 'Tis the season to ignore friends and family for the next five months in order to hopefully win a (likely relatively minor) cash prize and/or avoid a humiliating last-place punishment!

This brings us to today's goal: Breaking down my QB rankings and tiers (code IAN for 20% off!) ahead of the 2025 season. For the sake of brevity I'll be sticking to no more than 50 words for every key player listed.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Fantasy Football Quarterback Tiers

Tier 1: Dual-threat aliens (QB1-4)

It's a bird, it's a plane, it's a good-to-great passing QB who can also rack up tons of production on the ground!

QB1 Josh Allen: Hasn't finished outside fantasy's top-two QBs since the world found out what COVID-19 was. OC Joe Brady's run-first offense would be a bigger problem if Josh Allen wasn't the team's featured goal-line option. 50-total-TD upside remains firmly on the table for the reigning MVP.

QB2 Lamar Jackson: Has two of the top-six highest-scoring fantasy seasons of all time. The only reason he's not my QB1 is because of the lack of a goal-line role: Lamar Jackson had *zero* carries inside the 5-yard line last season, but I'm still more than fine selecting the two-time MVP in Round 3.

QB3 Jalen Hurts: 20+ fantasy points per game in all four of his seasons as Eagles QB1. Being able to select Jalen Hurts in Round 4-5 feels like cheating considering the gaudy floor here; I LOVE taking him over many of the potential landmine WR2s. The goal-line role at hand truly is ridiculous.

QB4 Jayden Daniels: Fresh off the fourth-best rookie season ever in fantasy points per game. Jayden Daniels is the last QB I'm willing to use a true early-round pick on thanks to the reality that he boasts theoretical Lamar-esque potential for 4,000+ passing yards alongside 1,000 more on the ground.

Tier 2: Elite (QB5-6)

I wouldn't have too much to bicker about if you wanted to rank these two signal-callers as the top-two real-life options at the position. Of course, we're dealing with FANTASY football here, and the lack of high-end rushing numbers keeps them outside Tier 1 ...

QB5 Joe Burrow: 19.6, 21.9, and 21.9 fantasy points per game in his only three healthy seasons (2021, 2022, and 2024) in Cincinnati. Joe Burrow's fearlessness in literally sprinting up in the pocket under pressure is wild to watch. QB3 consideration in leagues with extra fantasy points for passing yards and TDs.

QB6 Patrick Mahomes: Still QB2 all time in career fantasy points per game despite back-to-back QB12 finishes in 2023-24. It'd make sense if a better bill of health from the WR room brings out more in the counting numbers department. Arguably the best QB alive hasn't been cheaper in fantasy land since 2018.

Tier 3: High-end QB1 finish is possible (QB7-12)

The low-end QB1 tier features dual-threat options capable of running HOT if everything comes together, although there's certainly at least one red-ish flag that leaves them "this" low ...

QB7 Bo Nix: Jayden Daniels' prolific 2024 distracted from the fact that Bo Nix averaged the fifth-most fantasy points per game by a rookie in NFL history. More weapons are present in Sean Payton's ever-well-schemed offense. The QB7 last year in fantasy points from rushing, Nix firmly fits a top-five fantasy QB archetype.

QB8 Kyler Murray: Has never finished worse than QB12 in fantasy points per game, although QB9 and QB12 finishes in 2023-2024 were a far cry from back-to-back QB4 heights in 2020-2021. Maybe Kyler Murray simply gets back to running the ball more, but it's looking more and more like 2020 was the exception.

QB9 Baker Mayfield: The NFL's leader in passing TDs … and INTs … since 2023 gets to throw to one of the best WR trios in the league. Of course, Baker is on his eighth OC in eight years–it's far from a given 2025 will be closer to 2024 (QB4) than 2023 (QB17).

QB10 Brock Purdy: The NFL's most efficient QB of the Super Bowl era in career yards per attempt (8.9) and passer rating (104.9) posted QB10 fantasy numbers despite dealing with a plethora of brutal injuries across the offense. At some point the world needs to admit the man is a baller.

QB11 Justin Fields: Not a good passer, which isn't ideal for an NFL QB (the more you know!). And yet, this has always been the case, and Fields still returned QB5, QB11, and QB8 numbers over the past three seasons. QBs with triple-digit carries don't bust in fantasy land—Justin Fields is projected for 140.

QB12 Caleb Williams: The Bears have mightily improved the scheme, offensive line, and playmakers involved after Williams' relatively disappointing rookie campaign. There's thus no fantasy discount being afforded here coming off last year's QB20 finish, but man, the flashes were still there, and at a minimum positive rushing TD regression is expected.

Tier 4: Wow, there's still some upside here! (QB13-18)

Having these sorts of enticing options available as QB2s in more fantasy formats than not has me willing to deploy a "first or last" barbell strategy to the position this year: Either get someone incredible early, or wait and throw a dart or two at these ballers ...

QB13 Dak Prescott: I worry about so much improvement being expected solely due to the addition of George Pickens, but then again we are just one year removed from a MVP-level QB4 finish here for Dak Prescott. Dallas profiles as a fantasy-friendly NFC version of the Bengals–especially if the Micah Parsons situation continues to go south.

QB14 Drake Maye: Had more rushing yards than Lamar f*cking Jackson on scrambles last season. New OC Josh McDaniels was more than happy to lean into QB runs while coaching Cam Newton in 2020. I still don't love the offensive environment, but Drake Maye's rookie season sure showed plenty of promise.

QB15 Justin Herbert: Averaged over 22 fantasy points per game during the 2020 and 2021 seasons  … and under 18 every year since. Maybe the Chargers further tap into Justin Herbert's rushing ability–the man can move!–although this still profiles as a run-first offense that doesn't exactly boast the world's scariest assortment of pass catchers.

QB16 Jordan Love: One season removed from working as the QB5 (!) in fantasy land. I'm inclined to blame a lot of last season's struggles on early-season knee and groin injuries. Still, Jordan Love's passing performance admittedly wasn't quite as what we saw down the stretch of 2023. At least the price tag is cheap!

QB17 J.J. McCarthy: Look the f*ck out if J.J. McCarthy is even half as good as Thor Nystrom says he is, especially considering every QB Kevin O'Connell touches turns to gold inside this A+ offensive environment. Draft gawd Dane Brugler believes McCarthy would have been this draft's QB1. Not a bad late-round bet.

QB18 Trevor Lawrence: It's not good when your first 60 starts stack up so similarly to Daniel Jones, but the alleged generational talent also hasn't exactly been blessed with the world's best offensive environment. Liam Coen, Travis Hunter, and year-two Brian Thomas should bring out the best of the 25-year-old "veteran."

Tier 5: Pocket passers who could rack up passing numbers (QB19-21)

All three of these professional throwers of the football would warrant top-15 treatment in leagues that reward extra points for passing production. Otherwise, I have a tough time going out of my way for them considering the relative lack of a ceiling...

QB19 Jared Goff: Give the veteran credit for playing the best football of his career in 2024, although the complete lack of a rushing floor caused Jared Goff to still produce "only" a QB7 finish in fantasy points per game. A boost is deserved in formats that reward extra points for passing production.

QB20 C.J. Stroud: Went from the fantasy QB8 as a rookie … to the QB28 in 2024. Stroud easily had the position's biggest dropoff from last year's preseason QB5 ADP. Maybe new OC Nick Caley has the secret juice, but I don't love *one* proven high-end receiver and possibly the league's single-worst o-line.

QB21 Tua Tagovailoa: Has ranked second, fourth and seventh in EPA per dropback alongside QB10, QB19, and most recently QB14 fantasy finishes under Mike McDaniel. The weekly zeros from rushing don't help matters, but there's still proven QB1 upside here for Tua Tagovailoa in an offense just one year removed from ranking second in scoring.

Tier 6: You could imagine a borderline QB1 finish (QB22-27)

Will these QBs post top-12 numbers? Probably not. Most, including me, can't even find a way to rank them inside the position's top 20. That said, it doesn't take a Joshua Dobbs rocket scientist to put together a reasonable path to at least providing value at their dirt-cheap ADP...

QB22 Geno Smith: The most-accurate QB since 2022 in completion percentage over expected is just two years removed from a QB9 fantasy finish. The Raiders aren't exactly expected to vie for the league lead in dropbacks, but Geno Smith is too good of a real -ife QB to be virtually free in fantasy land.

QB23 Michael Penix Jr.: The Falcons strike me as a cheaper version of the Cowboys: A gunslinger QB funneling the football to a pair of quality WRs who give off NFC Bengals-esque vibes due to the potential for consistent fantasy-friendly shootouts. Michael Penix Jr. gives off some Gen-Z Jameis vibes, but perhaps with less turnovers!

QB24 Bryce Young: Legit great numbers in PFF pass grade (83.7, 6th) and big-time throw rate (7.7%, 1st!) from Week 8 on last season for Bryce Young. Still, the fantasy QB13 during that stretch was boosted by rushing production that trailed only Josh Allen during the final six weeks. I'm doubtful that continues.

QB25 Anthony Richardson: As mentioned with Justin Fields: High-volume dual-threat QBs don't bust in fantasy land … so long as they keep their job. This (warranted) fear has driven Anthony Richardson's price deep into the fantasy wasteland; just realize he'll be a top-15 QB at worst any week he's expected to start.

QB26 Sam Darnold: Top-10 efficiency numbers nearly across the board on his way to a top-10 fantasy finish last season. Of course, that was inside arguably the NFL's single-most QB-friendly environment, something the Seahawks' meh overall receiving core (with all due respect to JSN) and annually horrid o-line can't exactly attest to being.

QB27 Matthew Stafford: Possesses 40+ passing TD upside if healthy, something that seems less and less likely the more we find out about the 37-year-old's bad back. Still, Sean McVay-Puka Nacua-Davante Adams makes up one of the better offensive environments any QB could ask for—here's to hoping PFF's reigning 14th-ranked o-line holds up.

Best of the rest

QB28 Cam Ward has the sort of fun arm talent and fearlessness to warrant Jordan Love comps; I'm just worried about expecting TOO high of Year 1 heights in a still bad offensive environment alongside a probable meh rushing floor ... QB29 Aaron Rodgers is old. I mean look at him, he's old! That said, A-aron still proved capable of spinning a pretty football down the stretch of last season, and at worst can provide QB3 SUPERFLEX depth LATE in drafts ... QB30 Daniel Jones has a top-eight fantasy finish to his name back in 2022 and now enters a Colts offense with a certifiably good group of skill-position players. Of course, getting (and maintaining) a starting job isn't guaranteed … QB31 Russell Wilson still proved capable of tossing a b-e-a-utiful moon ball last season, but good god this schedule won't be doing him any favors. It seems like a matter of when, not if, the offense gets turned over to ... QB32 Jaxson Dart, who impressed in his preseason debut and continued to demonstrate fantasy-friendly dual-threat upside. I wouldn't put Dart's rushing upside on the same level as someone like Fields or Richardson, but something in the Bo Nix-young Dak Prescott range feels possible … QB33 Joe Flacco isn't guaranteed to start Week 1. In fact, it'd behoove the Browns to find out what they have in their various other young QBs; just realize Mr. Elite still has the sort of arm and DGAF attitude to provide some booms through the air should he get a real chance to run with the job … QB34 Tyler Shough might start the season behind Spencer Rattler, but profiles as the superior fantasy option thanks to potentially untapped rushing upside and the reality that, you know, we don't already have a season's worth of evidence of him sucking ... QB35 Jalen Milroe is a fun wild card in DEEP formats thanks to the potential for him to be a sneaky QB1 option immediately upon taking over thanks to the reality that Milroe would immediately profile as one of the position's top-five-ish rushing threats. ... QB36 Jameis Winston unfortunately appears stuck as the QB3 in New York, which really sucks considering the world is a better place when Winston is a starting QB. Honestly, I'd love to live in a simulation where all 32 teams are forced to start a clone of Jameis.