With the NFL Draft in the books and my first pass at projections completed, it's a great time to visit the latest updates to my fantasy football rankings for 2025. We will go position by position and work through upgrades and downgrades.

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Quarterbacks

UPGRADE: Caleb Williams | Bears

The Bears added two playmakers in Colston Loveland and Luther Burden in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. This comes on the heels of the Bears overhauling their offensive line ahead of the draft by adding Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson. It's clear that Ben Johnson has a vision for the Chicago offense, and Caleb Williams could take a drastic step forward as a passer in 2025. 

If that happens and Williams' luck runs better in the rushing department, he would offer a ceiling similar to that of some of the top quarterbacks in fantasy. Last year, he didn't score on 81 rushing attempts, and the average for a quarterback with 70 to 90 rush attempts has been 3.6 since 2011.

The median outcome for Williams using our variance logic is 18.1 points per game, which assumes his rushing touchdown variance levels out. However, his ceiling is 23.3 points per game despite a baseline of 222 passing yards per game.

I am the highest Fantasy Life ranker on Williams at QB9. He isn't a slam dunk, but offers more upside than Baker Mayfield, the consensus QB7.

UPGRADE: Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars

The Jaguars jettisoned Christian Kirk and Evan Engram with the arrival of new general manager James Gladstone and head coach Liam Coen. Then they traded up to the second pick overall in the NFL Draft to secure Travis Hunter, whom they plan to focus on offense out of the gate.

Hunter is the No. 5 all-time WR prospect in the Rookie Super Model, and he will pair with BrIan Thomas Jr., who led all fantasy wide receivers with 25.5 points per game over the final four weeks of the 2024 season. With an innovative new playcaller and possibly two elite weapons, you could paint an upside picture similar to that of Joe Burrow in a pure runout.

Trevor Lawrence has averaged 270 rushing yards (18 per game) with 3.5 touchdowns (0.23 per game) per season, which provides him with a differentiated profile from many of the stationary signal-callers going in his range of the draft. His baseline projection in my model is 17.4 points per game—a mark he bested in 2022 and 2023—but his ceiling projection comes in at 22.7 after layering in our variance logic.

Lawrence is my QB16 in a tier with Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, and Justin Herbert, but in a tier ahead of Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, and C.J. Stroud.

Running Backs

DOWNGRADE: Najee Harris | Chargers

Najee Harris, already on shaky ground with a one-year deal, saw his stock take a massive hit with the addition of Omarion Hampton in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Harris still stylistically fits the Chargers offense as a big-bodied bulldozer and might even lead the backfield to begin the season.

However, we must ask ourselves how valuable Harris will be to our fantasy teams when trying to win championships. There is a strong chance that Hampton takes over this backfield by midseason, leaving Harris scrounging for scraps as a rotational back who might steal some pass-down work.

Harris falls from mid-range RB2 territory to low-end RB3 territory.

UPGRADE: Chase Brown | Bengals

The Bengals rode Chase Brown heavily to finish the 2024 season after a neck injury sidelined Zack Moss. The team added Khalil Herbert to try to ease the load, but Brown didn't budge, bogarting 85% of the snaps from Weeks 9 to 17.

Zack Moss returns to the lineup, and the team added passing-down specialist Samaje Perine in free agency, along with Round 6 pick Tahj Brooks. While we shouldn't expect an 85%-plus snap share for Brown, this was a very pure runout for a guy with only Round 5 NFL Draft capital.

Brown climbs to RB12 in my ranks, slightly ahead of the RB13 consensus.

UPGRADE: D'Andre Swift | Bears

D'Andre Swift sits alone atop the Bears' depth chart in an offense with the arrow pointed upward. It is hard to imagine him getting much work in the passing game with so many talented receivers and tight ends, but he is the favorite to lead the backfield in touches. 

Even with a conservative approach, allowing 55% of the rushing attempts to flow through Swift, plus a 47% route share, he projects as the RB17 with 13.1 PPR points per game. Once layering in our new variance logic, his ceiling outcome is 19.2 points. That is a number that no one will believe, but if Swift runs pure and holds onto the job, he has a chance to surprise in a massive way in 2025.

Swift climbs to RB25 in my updated ranks—one spot behind our local Swift truther, Ian Hartitz.

UPGRADE: RJ Harvey | Broncos

The UCF product hit the jackpot in the 2025 NFL Draft. First, the Broncos made it clear RJ Harvey was their guy, prioritizing him in Round 2, almost 40 picks ahead of mock drafts. Second, he landed on one of the softest depth charts in the league with Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin as the primary challengers.

While we haven't gone all in on Harvey in our baseline projections, his ceiling outcome is still robust in a Sean Payton offense that designs as many passing-game looks for his backs as anyone.

Harvey climbs to RB21 in the post-draft rankings update.

DOWNGRADE: Rhamondre Stevenson | Patriots

With the addition of TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson's value takes a massive hit. On an offense with many questions, the best path to relevance was in a bell-cow role, but the Patriots already robbed Stevenson of passing-down reps last year with the addition of Antonio Gibson.

Henderson is the more explosive player of the two, which could devolve into a 1A/1B scenario from the get-go. There is a chance Stevenson is stuck in no-man's land battling for low-value opportunities between the 20-yard lines. Stevenson is still the favorite to lead the team in work from inside the 5-yard line, but the Patriots' offense must take a dramatic step forward to unlock significant TD upside for the veteran.

Stevenson falls to RB32, and it is hard to see many paths to upside without multiple teammate injuries and a significant step forward by the offense, making him a name I am fading at ADP.

UPGRADE: Isiah Pacheco | Chiefs

The Chiefs didn't add a back in the draft until Round 7, leaving Kareem Hunt and Elijah Mitchell as the primary competition for touches. Last season, Isiah Pacheco was off to a strong start, handling 74% of snaps, 67% of attempts, and notching a 63% route participation rate with a 16% target share. He was on his way to clear-cut RB1 status before a fractured fibula sidelined him until Week 13, when he wasn't the same back.

Pacheco pushes up the board to midrange RB3 territory and offers RB2 upside.

UPGRADE: Javonte Williams | Cowboys

Yeah, yeah, yeah … Javonte Williams is washed and is a complete sucker bet. Or is he? See, the thing about fantasy football is that weird things happen. The depth chart is wide open despite Williams' inefficiency woes over the last two years. While efficiency metrics like average yards after contact and missed tackles forced are sticky to backs, they often don't drive the distribution of touches, and ultimately correlate poorly with fantasy output.

In our baseline model, I have Williams projected for 47% of the attempts with a 35% route participation rate—modest and realistic numbers. His baseline projection is 11 fantasy points per game, but his ceiling outcome is 16.8.

Williams ascends to low-end RB3 territory and offers RB2 upside. 

Honorable Mentions:

• DOWNGRADE: Tyrone Tracy Jr. | Giants: The addition of Cam Skattebo makes murky the depth-chart waters.
• DOWNGRADE: Jaylen Warren | Steelers: The Steelers selected Kaleb Johnson in Round 3 of the NFL Draft. He will challenge Warren for early-down work immediately.
• UPGRADE: Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler | Commanders: Robinson and Ekeler could lose some work to Deebo Samuel, but they avoided draft-day landmines.

Wide Receivers

DOWNGRADE: DJ Moore and Rome Odunze | Bears

While the additions of Loveland and Burden are great news for Williams, the outlook for Moore and Odunze takes a hit. Moore has posted WR1 to WR2 level target shares over the last four years, but has never evolved into an alpha, which leaves the door open for fewer targets—especially if Colston and Burden gobble mismatches from the slot.

Odunze had a lackluster rookie season, notching a below-average 17% target share, allowing Moore and Allen to dominate the passing attack. We get mixed comps when combining Odunze's prospect profile with his Year 1 flop.

• Jahan Dotson (bust)
• Hollywood Brown (hit)
• DeAndre Hopkins (smash)
• Brandin Cooks (hit)
• Kendall Wright (bust)
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (tbd, leaning hit)
• Will Fuller V (hit)
• Michael Floyd (bust)

Moore falls from top-18 to WR21, and I am lower on Odunze than our consensus at WR39.

UPGRADE: Courtland Sutton | Broncos

In his second season under Sean Payton, with an upgrade at quarterback in Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton had a career season, notching a 26% target share on his way to 14.2 fantasy points per game. The Broncos added Evan Engram in free agency, but they did little to ramp up the WR competition in the draft. 

Third-round pick Pat Bryant will battle for the No. 2 role opposite Sutton. Bryant could make some noise, but of 53 comps to hit a 68 rating in the Rookie Super Model, only 20% secured a top-24 finish in their first three seasons. While we like Bryant as a sleeper this year, those odds are in Sutton's favor.

Sutton is my WR26, just slightly higher than our consensus of WR28.

UPGRADE: Rashee Rice | Chiefs

The latest reports have Rashee Rice on schedule for training camp, and Jeff Mueller (PT, DPT) likes what he sees.

Now, pair this news with the potential for Rice's legal woes to play out in 2026 rather than 2025, and it is time to get bullish on the potential No. 1 option for the Chiefs. Last year, before his season-ending LCL injury, Rice was the WR3 in fantasy, averaging 21.3 points per game.

Rice upgrades to WR19, and a case could be made to push him as high as WR11 if the news remains positive.

Honorable Mentions:

• UPGRADE: CeeDee Lamb | Cowboys: Lamb could see 200 targets given the lack of challengers.
• DOWNGRADE: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin | Buccaneers: This is a minor hit, but the Bucs will likely use more 11 personnel this year after adding Emeka Egbuka. That means the third-best target on the field upgrades from Cade Otton to Egbuka, which could siphon looks away from Evans and Godwin. Godwin could suffer the most if forced to play outside while Egbuka handles the slot.
• DOWNGRADE: Jayden Reed | Packers: Reed might have the chops to operate as a WR2 in fantasy, but the addition of Matthew Golden is another obstacle standing between him and a full-time role.

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson | Cowboys

No need for me to write much on this one … just read the fantastic work from Mr. Ian Hartitz!

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