Fantasy Football ADP Check: Caleb Williams is Climbing
Jonathan Fuller takes a look at players who have risen and fallen down average draft position in recent fantasy football drafts.
With training camp and the preseason in full swing, we're getting impactful news pretty much every day. Whether it's depth chart reports, injury scares, or training camp highlights there is a lot that can move a player's ADP. By looking at recent ADP changes we can see what news items the market is reacting to and which it is ignoring.
As a reminder, I'm referencing ESPN redraft ADP and looking at which players are moving up and down over the last seven days. With that in mind let's dive into three risers and three fallers this week and how I'm handling each of their situations.
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ADP Risers
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Is it a coincidence that Caleb Williams is the biggest ADP riser over the past week when he has been heavily featured on Hard Knocks? Probably not. But that doesn't mean that the rise isn't justified for a supremely talented rookie with tons of pass catching weapons.
Williams has looked good in training camp and in his limited preseason snaps, suggesting that he has a real shot to live up to the hype. This is helped by the fact that the Bears' offense is loaded with talent and they have what looks like a favorable schedule.
As the QB13 in ESPN ADP there is room for Williams to deliver value for fantasy managers. Last season's breakout rookie QB, C.J. Stroud, finished as the QB10 in points per game and Williams has more rushing upside in his profile. In his three years playing in college, Williams averaged 470 rushing yards per season (excluding sacks) and ran for double-digit TDs in each of his final two seasons.
Rookies always have a wide range of outcomes, but things are trending in the right direction for this year's top overall draft pick to deliver one of the better rookie QB seasons we have seen. It makes sense to me that he is moving up in fantasy drafts, the only question is how high are fantasy managers willing to push him? Personally, I would be fine with him jumping past Brock Purdy and Jayden Daniels in the ADP list, but he should remain a tier below Jordan Love and Kyler Murray in my opinion.
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
There are a couple factors contributing to Rashee Rice's ADP rise. The first is an increasing likelihood that Rice won't face a suspension this season for his involvement in a serious car crash earlier this offseason. Prior to that incident (and prior to the Chiefs drafting Xavier Worthy) Rice was considered a second or third-round pick in fantasy drafts. He then plummeted down draft boards and was going as late as pick 100 on ESPN.
The second reason is because Hollywood Brown suffered an injury during Kansas City's first preseason game and is expected to miss the rest of the offseason and possibly the first couple weeks of the regular season. Last year, Rice finished as the WR30 in half PPR points per game while playing in a somewhat-limited role (he didn't run 70% or higher of routes until Week 14), but is now being drafted as the 34th WR off the board.
Rice may now be the single-best value in all of fantasy football, as his ADP has not risen nearly enough to reflect the lower suspension risk in 2024. I'll be drafting Rice in every league unless he rises significantly over the next couple weeks.
Tank Dell, Houston Texans
Another WR moving up draft boards is Houston's second-year pass-catcher. Coming off of a broken leg last season there were concerns about whether he would be back to full speed to begin this year. The Texans' first preseason game put those worries to rest as Dell looked great on this TD.
There is still some question about how the target shares will break down in this Houston offense and whether the presence of three talented pass catchers will limit their individual upside, but in my experience it is usually worth betting on talented young players in good offenses.
In just 10 regular-season games last year, Dell managed to put up 709 receiving yards and 7 TDs. He displayed instant chemistry with QB C.J. Stroud and ranked as a top 20-WR in YPRR, yards per catch, and passer rating when targeted
This year, Dell is being drafted as the clear third option in the Houston passing game, more than 30 picks after Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs are being selected. While I do agree with the order of those WRs, the gap between the top two and Dell might be too wide given how much Stroud appears to love playing with him.
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ADP Fallers
Hollywood Brown, Kansas City Chiefs
As I mentioned in the Rice section, drafters are proceeding with caution following Brown's injury. There is a chance Brown misses the start of the season and the injury has also cost him valuable practice time to build chemistry with his new QB.
Brown is going late enough that I don't think he's a bad pick at ADP, but I would much rather have Rice or Worthy at their cost. Although he is now playing in the best offense of his career, there are still a number of red flags in Brown's profile. The most notable ones to me are that his efficiency has declined every season throughout his career (and has never been elite) as well as the fact that he has missed at least three games in each of the last two seasons and is already injured again.
I'm also very high on the potential of Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice, which only leaves so much volume for Brown after Travis Kelce gets his. As the veteran of the WR room, I would normally expect Brown's production to be weighted toward the early part of the season while the rookie gets up to speed, but the injury means the Chiefs may be forced to play Worthy more right away. If Worthy flashes like I expect him to, it will be difficult for Brown (who the team is not committed to long term) to carve out a big role in this offense.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
This one doesn't make much sense to me, but Jaylen Waddle has fallen a few spots over the last week and is now going in the middle of the fifth round. There hasn't been much news about Waddle or the Miami offense so I have to assume this is just drafters remembering what felt like a disappointing season for Waddle in 2023 when he finished as the WR24 in half PPR points per game.
If you look under the surface, however, there was a lot to like about Waddle's performance last season. His per-route efficiency numbers improved, including posting a career-high 2.63 YPRR during the regular season. He also posted a career high in targets per route run, but finished with just 104 targets for the season because he only played in 14 games.
The only aspects of Waddle's season that were actually disappointing were his TD total (4) and the games missed due to injury. Those issues seem vastly overstated to me because he doesn't have much of an injury history and we know TDs are a volatile stat. In best ball drafts, Waddle is a second-round pick, which seems much closer to an efficient price in my opinion.
Waddle is entering the prime of his career at 25 years old and plays in an explosive offense, exactly the type of profile I want to bet on. If he stays healthy and has slightly better TD luck, he should smash this cost in drafts and he has the upside to be a top-5 fantasy WR on a weekly basis if Tyreek Hill misses time.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Another ADP faller that I found a little bit surprising, Prescott is down about four spots in ESPN ADP over the last week. After finishing as the QB5 in points per game last season, Dak is now being drafted as the QB8 despite being in an almost identical situation to 2023.
It's difficult to say exactly why he is sliding down draft boards but my best guess is that it has to do with the lack of a resolution to contract talks for both the QB and his star WR CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys have been a bad vibes team for most of the offseason, but recent headlines at least indicate talks are ongoing so there is a chance we could see a deal get done before the season starts. Keeping the locker room happy and avoiding distractions in season are definitely important, but I tend to not worry about contract issues for star players because they usually get resolved.
The market may also be projecting some regression to the mean for Dak's passing efficiency after he led the NFL in passing TDs and finished third in passing yards for the regular season. Interestingly, the PFF Expected Points model actually had Dak as underperforming his expected passing TD total. I am also encouraged by the fact that 2023 doesn't look like an outlier when compared to past seasons for metrics like pass attempts, yards per attempt, TD rate, or completion %.
Yes, median projections will have his stats coming down (see below), but it wouldn't be shocking if he put up a very similar end-of-season stat line to what he had last year. All signs point to Prescott being a value as the QB8 in drafts, but he still isn't my favorite pick at the position.
Prescott goes in a range where I prefer to be drafting RBs and WRs, and I like the value on some QBs that go after him (Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels) a bit more. So although I don't plan to have a ton of Dak in my redraft leagues, he looks like a perfectly fine draft pick at his current cost.
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