Fantasy Football ADP Risers and Fallers: Josh Downs Is On His Way Up
Adam Pfeifer highlights the biggest risers and fallers in fantasy football ADP over the last week and how drafters can take advantage of the movement.
It’s Monday, which means it’s time to revisit the current fantasy football ADP over the last week. Drafts continue to fly, and as news and even signings continue to shuffle in, ADP continues to shift.
Let’s take a look at the most recent risers and fallers.
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Risers In Fantasy Football ADP Over The Last 7 Days
Josh Downs | WR | IND
- ADP shift: Up 6.3 spots
Josh Downs is too good to stay underrated much longer.
Among wideouts with at least 100 routes last season, Downs ranked 11th in TPRR vs man coverage (29%). Despite being just 5-foot-9 and 171 pounds, Downs has the footwork, release and route-running ability to play on the perimeter, even though he’s primarily played in the slot. It’s a good thing, too, because Downs is set to play on the outside a lot more in 2026.
The absence of Michael Pittman Jr. should open up more opportunities for Downs, who didn’t play when the Colts were in two-wide sets last season. Last season, Downs ran just 17 routes out of 12 personnel, which ranked outside the top-100 wideouts in football. But in that very small sample size, Downs was targeted seven times. No matter what the personnel or situation, Downs simply earns targets, and following the departure of Pittman, 21% of the Colts' targets need replacing.
I’m also excited to see if Downs soaks up some of those schemed RPO looks in Shane Steichen’s offense. Last year, Pittman saw the third-most RPO targets in the NFL (14), which are usually easy, pre-determined receptions over the middle of the field. If the Colts don’t drastically change Alec Pierce’s role, those advantageous looks could shift in the direction of Downs. And with the Colts running RPO concepts 13% of the time last year (5th), expect Steichen to continue dialing up those looks.
Our early fantasy football projections have Downs penciled in for 98 targets, just three behind Pierce, who comes off draft boards around three rounds earlier.
Ryan Flournoy | WR | DAL
- ADP shift: Up 10.6 spots
Damn, Ian Hartitz. How many best ball drafts have you done over the past week?
Flournoy was featured in Ian’s latest article, highlighting updates in his fantasy football rankings a few weeks back. Now? The third-year wideout is one of the top-five ADP risers over on Underdog.
I’m not saying, I’m just saying.
Of course, there’s a chance Flournoy does next to nothing as long as CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are on the field this season. But we did see spike weeks from Flournoy when given extended run last year, averaging a very solid 13.3 PPR PPG in six contests where he ran at least 60% of the routes. The true upside lies in the contingent value, but as Dallas’ unquestioned WR3, it isn’t as if Flournoy will give you nothing if Lamb and Pickens stay healthy. Dallas deployed three-wide sets at the third-highest rate in football (68%), while also ranking in the top 10 in dropback rate (62%).
Travis Hunter | WR (sometimes) | JAX
- ADP shift: Up 7.8 spots
Yes, there is a ton of uncertainty surrounding Hunter’s role in 2026, as well as moving forward. But isn’t best ball the exact format we should be leaning into that uncertainty? Especially when there is still so much upside.
Through the first three weeks of the season, Hunter ran a route on just 67% of dropbacks, averaging 5.3 targets per game. One of the most dynamic college wideouts we’ve seen in quite some time was suddenly used in almost a gadget role, as Hunter’s 6.7-yard aDOT was the 11th-lowest among qualified receivers during that stretch. Four of his 16 targets were screens, while Hunter was held below 50 receiving yards in each of his first four contests. The usage began to shift in Week 5, and over the next three weeks, Hunter climbed to an 85% route rate, 20% target share, 7.3 targets and 13.0 PPR PPG. That included a breakout game overseas where Hunter hauled in 8-of-14 targets for 101 yards and a touchdown.
While reports have been conflicting, it sounds like Hunter, though not full-time, is still going to play plenty of wide receiver this season. There’s legit zero reason not to select him in best ball drafts, especially when you consider he’s coming off the board after the first 150 picks.
Fallers In Fantasy Football ADP Over The Last 7 Days
Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | CLE
- ADP shift: Down 3.2 spots
It isn’t a massive drop, but Fannin has dipped a bit over the last week. Coming off a sensational rookie season where he comfortably led Cleveland in receiving, Fannin now has a lot more target competition in town. The Browns added both KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston in the NFL Draft, while Jerry Jeudy, though on the decline, is also still in the mix. Volume was on Fannin’s side last season, as he led all tight ends with at least 100 targets in TPRR (24%), ranking fourth in target share (22%). I’d still expect Fannin to lead his team in targets in 2026, but the gap certainly won’t be as large as it was a season ago.
49ers Wide Receivers
Brandon Aiyuk (down 9.5 spots), Christian Kirk (7.6 spots) and Ricky Pearsall (3.1) are all moving down in ADP, largely due to the uncertainty surrounding the San Francisco receiver room. Outside of Mike Evans, there are plenty of moving parts here. Will Aiyuk finally be traded (presumably to Washington)? How large a role will second-round rookie De’Zhaun Stribling play right out of the gate? Will Kirk still open the year as the starting slot receiver? And can Pearsall stay healthy?
Whew.
Once the 49ers finally move on from Aiyuk, things will start to materialize, and we’ll see some of these ADPs rise. We know we want pieces of this high-powered offense, especially if George Kittle isn’t ready for Week 1. But at the moment, the ambiguity has made drafters a bit hesitant.
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