Fantasy Football ADP Risers and Fallers: Malik Nabers Down, Ted Hurst Up
Adam Pfeifer highlights the biggest movers over the last seven days in Underdog drafts.
More drafts, more news, more fantasy football ADP shifts.
Draft season is approaching.
Every Monday, we will be taking a look at some of the latest risers and fallers in Underdog best ball drafts. This week, we’re taking a look at a pair of Tampa Bay skill position players, along with a Round 2 wide receiver.
Let’s go.
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Risers In Fantasy Football ADP
Ted Hurst | WR | TB
- ADP shift: Up 15.6 spots
No player has seen their ADP spike more over the last seven days than Hurst, and it all stems from one report out of Tampa Bay.
Last week, new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson pointed out that Emeka Egbuka will primarily play the “Z” position in the Bucs offense, but also mentioned how Hurst gives the team a true “X.”
Okay then.
Because we’re in May, everyone drafting is running with this news, boosting Hurst’s ADP by nearly 16 spots. And sure, Hurst is a very viable and fun late-round wideout to target, but this report should not be viewed as the Bucs saying “Ted Hurst is our starting outside receiver.” While Egbuka may primarily play the flanker role, he can certainly play the X, too. I also struggle to believe that Hurst is immediately going to take a starting role over Jalen McMillan, who Tampa Bay gave 56% of the routes when healthy from Week 15 on last year.
Given the Egbuka news, the Tampa Bay wideout that should be rising is Chris Godwin, who will man the slot position for the Bucs. Always more efficient from the inside, Godwin’s splits over his last 16 regular-season games are pretty glaring:
Feel free to take shots on both Hurst and McMillan late in drafts. But if you ask me, factoring in value, Godwin (WR42) is the Tampa Bay wideout to draft.
Kenneth Gainwell | RB | TB
- ADP shift: Up 3.2 spots
With the news that Bucky Irving (shoulder) may not be cleared for the start of OTAs, both Gainwell and Sean Tucker (up 5.4 spots) have climbed draft boards over the last week. While there is no indication that this will be anything that threatens Irving’s Week 1 availability, it is a reminder that the shoulder injury has been difficult to fully return from, even requiring offseason surgery. But whether Irving is healthy or not, if last year’s usage is any indication, one thing is for sure.
Gainwell is going to play a key role in this offense.
Irving missed Weeks 5-12, but once he returned in Week 13, the usage wasn’t the same. From Week 13 on, Irving handled 65% of Tampa Bay’s rushing attempts (good), but averaged 11.1 PPR points per game (not so good). That ranked outside the top-25 running backs during that stretch. Per the Fantasy Life Utilization Report, Irving logged just 13% of the long down and distance snaps after returning from injury, while 41% of the two-minute snaps went to Rachaad White. Irving averaged just 1.8 receptions and 14 receiving yards per game, but perhaps most importantly, he saw zero carries from inside the five-yard line.
Gainwell is one of the league’s top pass-catching and pass-protecting running backs. And given Irving’s limited usage last year, we could see Gainwell carve out standalone fantasy value for the second consecutive season.
Antonio Williams | WR | WAS
- ADP shift: Up 4 spots
Williams is one of the most intriguing rookies in fantasy this season. He has every opportunity to open the year as the second option in the Washington passing attack. The only thing that seems to be keeping his ADP in check is the looming presence of Brandon Aiyuk, who has been linked to the Commanders for quite some time now. But the longer he’s not on the Commanders, the easier it is to get excited about Williams’ rookie potential.
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Fallers In Fantasy Football ADP
Oronde Gadsden | TE | LAC
- ADP shift: Down 17.7 spots
I’ll be honest. I thought Gadsden was being drafted too high before the Chargers signed David Njoku. And now, following the addition of Njoku, Gadsden has seen his ADP fall more than any other player in fantasy.
Gadsden began to emerge as the Chargers’ top tight end in Week 3, and from then on, the rookie logged 65% of the routes. That ranked just 24th among all tight ends during that span, as Gadsden was essentially used as a huge slot receiver. Given the moves the Chargers have made this offseason, we can expect new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel to deploy plenty of 12 personnel, and probably a sprinkle of 13. Play-action targets can be very fantasy-friendly for tight ends, and if Gadsden isn’t out there in heavier personnel, those looks won’t be headed his way.
Even when the Chargers are in multiple tight end sets, it isn’t as if Gadsden can’t earn targets alongside Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Njoku/Charlie Kolar. We also have to remember that Njoku is 30 years old and is coming off a season where he missed five games. And it’s fair to wonder if Njoku is on the decline.
| Year | Yards Per Route Run | % of 1st Down or TD |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.7 | 28.50% |
| 2024 | 1.34 | 23.70% |
| 2025 | 1.06 | 22.90% |
Given how difficult his week-to-week usage may be to project, Gadsden is on the TE1/TE2 borderline, though there’s still plenty of upside.
Malik Nabers | WR | NYG
- ADP shift: Down 5 spots
We already knew Nabers’ Week 1 status was in question following his ACL tear. Still, he remained a mid-second-round pick in fantasy drafts. But following the report that the Giants’ star wideout underwent a second surgery to clean some things up, his ADP now has him towards the end of Round 2. The Giants have remained hopeful that Nabers will be ready to go for Week 1, though their remarks haven’t exactly screamed confidence. Here’s what Giants GM Joe Schoen said back in January:
“Malik is trending to hopefully be ready for training camp,” Schoen said. “Things can change … but that’s the hope.”
If Nabers continues to get positive updates over the course of training camp, he will (and should) be bumped back to the top of the second round of fantasy drafts. In his lone full season in the NFL, he led the league in target share (35%) and targets per game (11.3), while ranking sixth in fantasy points per game (18.2).
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