
Ian Hartitz reveals in his weekly manifesto plenty fantasy football bold predictions, players to stream, fantasy trade options, latest news, and more.

And just like that: Week 10 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!
Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding a handful of players I believe could outperform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out—they wouldn't be bold otherwise—but will that stop me? Hell, no!
Without further adieu: Let's get weird.
Players highlighted last week and results: Tyler Allgeier (18 yards, 1 TD), Jordan Addison (51 yards, 1 TD), Brian Robinson (didn't play, hamstring, feel free to blame me).
Not really, but there were a few trades that figure to have at least SOME level of fantasy impact:
The Bears gave Khalil Herbert only 10 touches this season, but he previously posted solid marks in rush yards over expected in 2023 (+0.29, 18th) and especially 2022 (+1.29, 1st). Of course, so did Zack Moss (neck, IR), who seems to be the RB Herbert is replacing more so than starter/bellcow Chase Brown. Expecting Brown to get 90% of the team's designed rush attempts like he did in Week 9 moving forward was never realistic, but it'd be surprising to see Herbert work as a 1.B in a similar mold as Moss right away. For now, treat Brown as a low-end RB1 as the clear featured back of the league's 7th-ranked scoring offense, while Herbert is more of a speculative handcuff stash than anything.
Averaged a career-low 18.4 yards per game and 7.9 yards per target in nine contests with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. Of course, Williams is indeed coming off knee surgery and could feasibly still be rounding into form, although Father Time also might have simply called for the 30-year-old contested-catch artist. It's easy to imagine PRIME Williams being a perfect downfield fit for Russell Wilson's moon balls; just realize those days are probably in the past. Big Mike could certainly still be an upgrade over Van Jefferson, but I'm not downgrading George Pickens from upside WR2 territory, and don't anticipate Williams being more than a boom-or-bust WR5 in the near future.
Dallas hilariously sent the Panthers a fourth-round pick in return for Mingo and a seventh-rounder. Maybe a change of scenery brings out the best of the 2023 2nd-round pick, but I wouldn't count on it: Mingo ranks dead last in yards per target (4.9) among 59 WRs with triple-digit pass-game opportunities over the past two seasons. Best known at this point for his not-so-brilliant sideline footwork, Mingo would already be a stretch to call a fantasy flier BEFORE Dak Prescott (hamstring) was placed on the injured reserve list. I'd be surprised if Mingo comes close to cracking Fantasy Life's top-50 ranked WRs during any future week in 2024 and beyond.
Nothing too crazy in the NFL's trade streets, but that doesn't mean you can't get a little wonky in your fantasy leagues!
Two potential players stick out to yours truly:
Yes, Hunt is averaging the same number of PPR points per game as Jonathan Taylor and James Cook this season. He's scored 5 TDs in his last four games, racking up 22-plus touches in every contest along the way.
Also yes, Hunt hasn't been overly efficient with his opportunities (3.7 yards per carry) and has offered essentially nothing in the explosive play department: Only Zamir White (3.3%) has a lower explosive run rate than Hunt (3.6%) among 47 RBs with 50-plus carries this season. There's also been essentially zero receiving floor here with just 7 total receptions to Hunt's name this season.
This would all still be fine … if we expected Hunt to remain the bellcow RB in Kansas City for the rest of the season. Head coach Andy Reid mentioned last week that Isiah Pacheco is improving, and ESPN's Lisa Salters expanded on that sentiment by noting Pacheco, “Isn’t back in pads yet. But he had an important workout with trainers this past Thursday. Where he was able to do some running and cutting and he apparently looked good.” Ian Rapoport is on record saying that Pacheco is targeting a late-November return.
Add it all together, and we're probably only looking at another game or two of the Hunt bellcow experience in K.C. I'm a fan of attempting to sell him before this becomes a clearer reality to the masses—the following trades have been completed over the last few days (via Fantasy Calc):
Don't look now, but the Bills have deployed a +8% dropback rate over expected during their last three games—the second-highest mark in the league. While this could be good for Cook during certain games due to his receiving prowess, the Bills have fed him just 2.8 targets per game this season, as Khalil Shakir soaks up a lot of the low-aDOT targets that are reserved for RBs in most offenses, and Ty Johnson continues to be annoyingly involved in clear pass-first situations.
Credit to Cook for booming on the ground at various points of this season, but his +26.4 PPR points over expected reflect the reality that he's probably gotten at least a little bit lucky in the fantasy points department through nine weeks of action. I wouldn't exactly expect the rushing volume here to boom up in a meaningful way as long as Ray Davis continues to look like someone every bit as good on the ground.
Two potential trades that have occurred recently that I like: Packaging Cook and Josh Downs for Jahmyr Gibbs as well as Cook for Josh Jacobs plus Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Don't give the man away; just realize this Bills offense is trending toward being more pass-happy than we've seen over the past 12 months, and Davis sure looks like steeper backup competition than we've seen in quite some time.
OK, last trade-related topic I swear:
The REAL big moves at the trade deadline occurred a few weeks ago, and we've accordingly already seen some early returns. This begs the question: What should we expect moving forward from the trio of big-name WRs traded over the past month?
Jets WR Davante Adams: Back-to-back relative duds (3-30-0, 4-54-0) were followed up by a booming 7-91-1 performance against the Texans last Thursday night. Adams' releases looked crispier than ever during that big game; we've seen little evidence that the 31-year-old veteran is washed to this point. While elite WR1 heights are probably not going to happen as long as he's sharing the offense with fellow stud WR Garrett Wilson, don't be surprised if Adams makes himself cozy on the WR1 borderline ahead of some smash matchups down the stretch against the Cardinals (No. 19 in PPR points per game allowed to WRs), Colts (No. 25), Seahawks (No. 23), Dolphins (No. 3), Jaguars (No. 29), and Rams (No. 24). Adams will be a staple inside my weekly top-15 WRs as long as good health persists the rest of the way.
Chiefs WR DeAndre Hopkins: The 32-year-old veteran dialed back the clock on Monday night, racking up 8 receptions for 86 yards and a pair of scores in the "Rashee Rice" role that is making a push for the single-most fantasy-friendly spot in the game. While the artist known as Nuk might not overtake Travis Kelce as Patrick Mahomes' favorite target anytime soon, it's hard to not be excited about the possibilities of the team's primary underneath/intermediate WR considering the returns this season. Expectations should be held in check ahead of this week's matchup with Patrick Surtain and the Broncos, but get your popcorn ready after that for dates with the Bills, Panthers, and the Raiders. Hopkins enters the weekly top-20 conversation, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him zoom into WR1 territory in plus matchups.
Bills WR Amari Cooper: A wrist injury sidelined Cooper in Week 9, but he's considered day-to-day and tentatively not expected to miss too much time. Fingers crossed that's the case, as this new-look, pass-heavy Bills offense (+8% DBOE in the last three weeks) looks ready to fully embrace the Josh Allen experience, which should yield fantasy-friendly returns for all WRs involved. I agree with Dwain McFarland's sentiment that Cooper is a quality buy-low option, although the spread-out nature of this Bills passing game could limit his ceiling relative to Adams and Hopkins. Still, Cooper will be firmly in the upside WR3 conversation as soon as he's back on the field, and we shouldn't dismiss the potential for more ahead of Sunday's potential smash spot against the Colts' sad excuse for a pass defense.
Now let's take a moment to appreciate some of the better fantasy performers at the halfway point of the 2024 season.
Good question! Here are my picks for five different honors:
Fantasy MVP: Ravens RB Derrick Henry. I could have gone with co-MVPs and included Eagles RB/backward hurdler Saquon Barkley, but that felt lame, so here we are. Shoutout to King Henry for leading all non-QBs in fantasy points per game this season; he's on pace to score 25 TDs and gain 2,163 total yards—not bad for someone who was usually available midway through the second round last August.
Waiver wire pickup of the year: Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield. Guys like Browns WR Cedric Tillman and Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt have a case here, too, but I gotta go with Mayfield, who joins Lamar Jackson as the only players with 200-plus fantasy points thus far this season. Mayfield is the NFL's only QB with 50-plus passing TDs since Week 1 of last season and has managed to keep on keeping on without the services of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in recent weeks. Not too shabby for someone who was regularly available outside the top-20 QBs in terms of preseason ADP.
Comeback fantasy player of the year: Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins. There were questions as to whether or not Dobbins would even make the Ravens' roster during the offseason. Now? He's sitting pretty as the RB13 in PPR points per game ahead of guys like David Montgomery and Breece Hall, among others. While his efficiency has tailed off after an electric first two weeks of the season, Dobbins remains a staple inside the position's top-15 options thanks to a workhorse role that has produced 16-plus touches in seven consecutive games. Here's to hoping this is just the beginning of what will hopefully continue to be a remarkable career comeback for the 25-year-old talent.
Fantasy rookie of the year: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels. With all due respect to Giants WR Malik Nabers and Jaguars WR BrIan Thomas Jr., how could it not be the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 2 overall pick? Despite missing most of one game and being limited by a rib injury in two others, Daniels is sitting pretty as the QB4 in fantasy points per game through nine weeks of action. Overall, only Cam Newton (23.1), Justin Herbert (22.2), and Robert Griffin (21.2) have topped his current 20.2 points per game average among all rookie QBs to start at least eight games in NFL history.
Fantasy bust of the year: Lions TE Sam LaPorta. Not exactly a good award to win, but yeah: Congrats? I'm leaving out injury-induced situations like Christian McCaffrey, leaving it between fantasy's reigning overall TE1 and probably Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Still, Marv has at least provided a trio of top-20 finishes and two big-time top-5 booms; LaPorta has yet to finish a week higher than the TE8 after nine weeks of action. Averaging just 8 PPR points per game, the second-year alleged stud has been outscored by waiver wire castoffs like Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki, and Jonnu Smith. Pain.
Speaking of busts…
Yes! Watch the flim!
The 224-2-2 and 171-1-1 passing lines haven't been phenomenal, but the former did come against the Broncos' stifling pass defense, and the latter probably should have included +1 TD and -1 INT if it weren't for David Moore dropping a score and Xavier Legette letting a pass directly in his bread basket get ripped away for a pick (as covered in this week's Sheesh Report).
It's hard to overstate just how low the bar was here after a disastrous first two weeks of the season, but Young's numbers have improved across the board following his “timeout:”
Now, those numbers are still pretty bad relative to the rest of the league; the +4% completion percentage over expected (16th) is the only metric that ranks better than 24th. Still, it's progress! And Panthers fans can at least bark at Bears fans about their No. 1 overall pick having better numbers during this admittedly tiny two-week sample.
Does this mean Young is suddenly destined to turn around his career? No, and he's not even guaranteed to start over Andy Dalton ahead of Week 10's matchup with the Giants for whatever reason. But hey, things are at least moving in a more right direction than they were before; here's to hoping the Panthers' pint-sized franchise QB has what it takes to continue building off his sudden progress—fantasy managers of Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen, and Jalen Coker would certainly appreciate it.
All that said: I would not recommend streaming Young in the upcoming weeks over the following QBs if you can help it.
There are still plenty of top-tier QBs on bye over the next month of action, so let's try to get ahead of the waiver wire scrum and figure out who to roster meow vs. later:
Has ripped off QB22, QB15, QB10, and QB13 finishes since returning from bye, all the while looking like one of the game's very best throwers of the football. The Chargers have responded by posting a robust (for them) +3% dropback rate over expected, and now even better counting numbers could be on the horizon ahead of winnable matchups with the Titans (13th in fantasy points per game allowed to the position), Bengals (29th), Ravens (30th), and Falcons (25th).
Turned in QB3 and QB19 performances in his first two starts with Pittsburgh, good for an average of 19.4 fantasy points per game—the 7th-highest mark in the league. A pair of matchups with the New York football teams certainly helped matters, but there are more winnable spots ahead against the Commanders (18th in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs), Ravens (30th), Browns (14th), and Bengals (29th) over the next month of action.
Maye's 41.8 rushing yards per game trail only Lamar Jackson (56.1) and Jayden Daniels (51) at the position this season. Hell, he leads all QBs in raw rushing yards (and Kenneth Walker!) since taking over as the full-time starter in Week 6. The passing returns have been up and down, but fantasy managers can work with this rushing floor in winnable Week 11 (Rams) and Week 13 (Colts) matchups in particular.
Gotta love finding some high-end production on the waiver wire. Of course, just because a player puts one good week together doesn't necessarily mean more goodness is guaranteed to be on the way.
The following players ripped off sterling top-8 PPR performances last week, but that doesn't mean the production is here to stay. Presenting: Fraud check, where we (me) decide if last week's biggest stars are here to stay, or if we simply just witnessed a one-off boom.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (QB5): Mahomes registered his first QB1 finish of the season on Monday night and scored 20-plus fantasy points for the first time since Week 12 of last season. Getting DeAndre Hopkins more acclimated with the offense certainly helped, but so did a matchup with a Buccaneers defense that has now allowed 36, 27, 41, 31, and 30 points in their last five games. While I'd love to sit here and believe that Week 9's boom was finally the start of Mahomes getting back to partying like it's pre-2023 again in the boxscore, this remains a team happy to win with great defense and a ball-control offense. I'm not buying into Mahomes suddenly working as the top-5 QB you drafted him to be the rest of the way (especially Sunday vs. the Broncos), but hopefully, this is at least the start of something close to consistent low-end QB1 production.
Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle (RB8): Set season-high marks in PPR points (21.7), snap rate (73%), and route rate (61%) against the Falcons. Two problems:
1.) Ezekiel Elliott was inactive, which is expected to change this week.
2.) Dak Prescott (hamstring) is out for at least the next four weeks, leaving Cooper Rush in charge.
Kudos to Rush for having a nice win-loss record as a starter, but he ranks outside the league's top-30 QBs in essentially any meaningful advanced passing metric since entering the league. The Cowboys have some tough front-sevens to deal with in the near future against the Eagles, Texans, Commanders, and Giants. I'm selling the idea that Dowdle is someone who NEEDS to be in fantasy lineups until Dak is back under center.
Jets WR Davante Adams (WR6): Aaron Rodgers' long-time BFF has 25 targets to Garrett Wilson's team-high 27 pass-game opportunities over the past three weeks. But guess what? Both totals rank inside the game's top-8 WRs, as A-aron has proven willing to force-feed his top-2 targets with little regard for anyone else—something that should continue with Allen Lazard (chest, IR) and Mike Williams (traded to the Steelers) out of the picture. We talked about Adams' upcoming stretch of good matchups, and his quality 18th-ranked ESPN Open Score reflects the reality that the six-time Pro Bowler still looks plenty capable of creating separation at will. I'm buying last week's boom as a sign of even more big things to come inside a Jets offense that is conveniently (for fantasy managers) almost entirely focused around three key ballers.
Giants TE Theo Johnson (TE7): The rookie hadn't finished better than TE18 in fantasy land before Week 9, but the underlying utilization has been moving in the right direction for a while now. Overall, Johnson has posted route rates north of 75% in each of his past five games, and last week's career-high marks in targets (6) and yards (51) do indeed show an increased willingness to get this seam-stretching TE more involved. There are more winnable matchups on the horizon with the Panthers, Bucs, Cowboys, Saints, Ravens, Falcons, and Colts secondaries closing out the fantasy season. Don't be surprised if Johnson provides borderline TE1 production the rest of the way, although mid-tier TE1 production is probably too much to ask inside a passing game that we obviously still don't exactly trust.
Now it's time to get into some specific Week 10 goodness. Buckle up, ladies and (mostly) gentlemen.
Every week I put together a group of charts meant to provide easy-to-decipher matchup advantages on both sides of the ball in a handful of categories. This includes combined explosive-pass/run-play rates, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback, and EPA per play. The idea is to have one metric to show a mismatch instead of always going, "Offense ranks X, defense ranks Y."
Without further adieu: The week's biggest mismatches in these ever-important categories. Feel free to click on any of the below categories for a full chart.
I remain steadfast in the idea that no NFL game is inherently "bad." Complaining about specific matchups is ignoring the reality that relatively *meh* football is so much better than *no* football; we should NEVER dismiss any given 60 minutes of professional action on the gridiron.
With that said: Some matchups are indeed more awesome than others, so let's take a quick second to rank every matchup of the week in terms of what I'm looking forward to most through my own biased lenses:



