Usually, I’d say each week is its own entity. The set of games is unique, but we can take away data points to apply to the following week. Other than the common occurrences (like catches, runs, and touchdowns), there’s no way we’d see the same thing happen in consecutive weeks.

And yet, I just watched Malachi Corley drop the ball as he went into the end zone. Kyle Pitts just did this five days ago (and got away with it). 

Anyway, let’s get back to work. You folks have questions. I’ve got answers. And with our set of tools available, we’ll get you set up for Week 9 and beyond.

Drop Dilemma

I have a dilemma. I can only roster 4 WRs, and I have JJettas, Worthy, and D Johnson in my IR slot, as well as D Douglas and Pearsall. Johnson will be back, and I need to drop a WR out of D Douglas or Pearsall. Who do I drop? – TheAgelessWonder

For full transparency, I dropped Jalen McMillan in a couple of leagues a couple of weeks ago. And then I watched Mike Evans and Chris Godwin go down with all of you. All that to say, the league can change in an instant. And it makes dropping a player all the more difficult. We’re assuming we can predict more bad results based on current data. But we have to start somewhere, and our Utilization Report comparison tool consolidates a lot of the metrics we’d use to help drive our decision.

Wait. The tool didn’t fully solve our problem. It’s missing some context.

For example, Douglas has played 50.0% or more of the snaps in seven games. Pearsall is two weeks into his career. There’s also the fact that Douglas’s only week as a starter coincided with Drake Maye’s first full game. However, upon closer inspection of Douglas’s time with Maye, the QB switch hasn’t been as beneficial to him.

Five different Patriots receivers have either earned targets or complained about their diminished role in the passing game. And that’s before we get to the backfield duo and two TEs also vying for opportunities. In an offense ranking 15th in early-down pass rate, the total volume in New England doesn’t lend itself to viable fantasy production unless Douglas separates from his teammates. Meanwhile, Pearsall’s largest competitors for work are George Kittle and Deebo Samuel.

Sometimes, it may just be as simple as looking at the offensive situations and going with the better team. However, volume is still king, especially for WRs, which are a bit farther down the totem pole. There’s always a chance Douglas pops up for another nine-target game, but for now Pearsall grades out as the better option to hold.

Josh Jacobs vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown

Trade away Josh Jacobs for Amon Ra in a 0.5-PT PPR redraft 12 team? Current RBs: Mixon, CMC/Mason, Josh Jacobs, Tank Bigsby. Current WRs: Tyreek, Brian Thomas, Diontae – cj81

Names alone have value. We see a specific player called out and remember their highlights (or duds). Qualitatively, I’d look at the trade this way.

• Josh Jacobs: the RB1 on a good team that passes more while in scoring position
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: WR1 on a good team that runs more while in scoring position

On the surface, this looks like an even trade. Both players see enough volume relative to their positions to be weekly fantasy starters. However, let’s dig into this a bit more.

• Jacobs UR Score: 7.6 (7.7 w/ Jordan Love)
• St. Brown UR Score: 7.7

The Utilization Score distills many of the same metrics used in the Utilization Report into a single number. Usually, it’s so we can compare two players within the same position. In this case, we’re doing it across positions but only to compare workloads. And, on the season, we could reasonably conclude Jacobs and St. Brown have had a similar amount of opportunities. But the last month doesn’t jibe with the full picture.

Not only has Jordan Love’s red zone dropback rate been below his seasonal average of 60.2% in two of his last four games, but Jacobs has also cashed in on his high-value touches. In Weeks 1 through 4, Jacobs had the 13th-most carries from inside the 20-yard line. And he scored zero TDs. With Love back, he’s tied with Saquon Barkley in RZ touches but has the third-most TDs. Jacobs even found the end zone as a receiver. Meanwhile, life without Jameson Williams hasn’t been the boost most thought it would be for St. Brown.

The Lions also pivoted to their ground game, which pulled away from their WR1. Since Week 5, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have accounted for seven of their 16 TDs. And if last week is any indication, Detroit’s ground game can script the passing attack out. So, while the two appear equal on the season, I’d want to get a bit more for Jacobs than St. Brown alone.

St. Brown plus a bench RB? Now we’re talking.

Concern for Nick Chubb?

Are you worried at all about Chubb in his two games back? – A mob of ducks

No, not really. A few things are working in his favor.

Let’s remember last week was his first game back. And in his debut, Cleveland rotated three RBs (Chubb, Strong, and Foreman). Things changed in Week 8. D’Onta Foreman mixed in for short-yardage situations. Otherwise, Chubb owned the backfield. With his carry and route rate on the rise, we should expect him to get back to the touch share he’s had in years past. Also, the play-calling at least indicates a shift in his favor.

• Early-Down Pass Rate: 62.4% (Weeks 1-6), 53.7% (Week 8)
• EPA per Play: -0.24, +0.11

Jameis Winston not only unlocked the Browns’ passing game, but he allowed the offense to operate as intended. By being able to rely on their running game (i.e., Chubb), Cleveland averaged 6.6 yards per play on early downs. Before Week 8, they hadn’t cracked 5.0 YPP once. Granted, Baltimore’s secondary was forgiving, but the schematic shift at least hints at using the rushing attack in tandem with Winston’s aggression as a thrower. Finally, the upcoming schedule isn’t so bad.

• Chargers – 30th (RB points given up all season), 2nd (Yards per Play allowed over the last month)
• Saints – 7th, 3rd 
• Steelers – 19th, 23rd 
• Broncos – 17th, 25th

We just watched the Giants rack up yards on the ground against Pittsburgh. Chuba Hubbard’s usage as a receiver gave him a floor against the Broncos. So, both units have their flaws. Regardless, the next month of games set up as, at worst, neutral battles for Chubb. Regardless, as he continues to get back up to speed, we’ll see him in the end zone more often.