Fantasy Football Mailbag: Will Tyler Shough Outperform His ADP?

We're just a day away from the NFL Schedule release, and we can't wait to see what are going to be some of the great matchups that will take place all season—especially during the fantasy playoffs. Our fair listeners to the Fantasy Life Sirius/XM show dropped some inquiries for the upcoming season, so Kendall Valenzuela reached into the mailbag for a few questions covering a variety of topics.

Fantasy Football Mailbag

Which QB could outperform their current ADP?

Is it crazy to say Tyler Shough??? I don't think so! Let's run it back to when Shough was given the full-time role for the Saints in 2025. After becoming the starter in Week 9, Shough was the QB12 in points per game. He averaged a solid 250.1 passing yards per game and on the ground he contributed 19.3 rushing yards per game along with 3 touchdowns.

Is there a particularly high ceiling? Not from what we have seen so far, because in those games mentioned above he never reached 22 fantasy points, but we have to love the steadiness. Plus the Saints did build around him for the upcoming season. Last season was plagued with injuries, but the team still has Chris Olave and they also added Jordyn Tyson (forks up) and Travis Etienne.

Also factor in that HC Kellen Moore helped this offense rank first in pace of play last year, and I feel like we are cooking with gas. I'm not here saying Shough is going to pace the elite quarterbacks by any means, but a solid QB2 contributor with upside for more? Sign me up.

Who should I be buying at their current price?

If you're in the Underdog streets already you might see some mispriced players, but one I've mentioned before is Jaylen Waddle—WR16 in Fantasy Life projections vs. WR24 in ADP.

A change in teams for Waddle hasn't pushed fantasy drafters as far as I expected in early drafts. Maybe they're worried about Courtland Sutton or Bo Nix coming back from injury? Either way, Waddle has performed for years with a combination of Tua Tagovailoa's mediocre-to-bad quarterback play and Tyreek Hill on the other side of the field. And yet, in those five seasons he still averaged 75 receptions, 1,008 yards and 5.4 touchdowns. The projections tell a story of Waddle still coming through for fantasy managers:

Waddle: 118 targets / 79 receptions / 1,066 receiving yards / 227.3 PPR Fantasy Points

Sutton: 108 targets / 69 receptions / 928 receiving yards / 203.8 PPR Fantasy Points

I'm taking advantage of this price before drafters start coming around to the idea that this is a huge upgrade with Waddle in Denver.

Is there a sleeper worth doubling down on?

I wouldn't say doubling down, but dang Chig Okonkwo has to fit this mold right now. The Commanders were a team linked to getting Jordyn Tyson in the draft and they walked away with Antonio Williams—whom I still love for dynasty and redraft, don't get me wrong. But in terms of actually setting Jayden Daniels up for success, did they really do that with the weapons around him?

And like I've said before, this is a huge opportunity and quarterback upgrade for Okonkwo.

According to ESPN, in 2024, when Daniels was fully healthy, he ranked 12th in on-target throw percentage (78.2%). In Okonkwo's four seasons in Tennessee, he never had a quarterback rank higher than 25th (shoutout to Ryan Tannehill in 2022).

His YAC ability is something that cannot be ignored—Okonkwo ranked in the top 15 at the tight end position in three of his four seasons, getting as high as 11th last season. Combine his yards after catch ability with his speed—he ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at the Combine—and Okonkwo could be in a great position here.

Fantasy Life projections have Okonkwo getting 85 targets, 64 receptions, 624 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, which are all good for a projected TE14 finish. He's currently going off the board as the TE20.

Who will be one of the most polarizing players during drafts?

There are lots of names that can fit this question, but let's go with Emeka Egbuka. Over the first five games of the season in 2025, he averaged 20.5 fantasy points per game. After that? We remember it like it was yesterday (the wound is still fresh): Egbuka scored 1 touchdown after Week 9 and ranked as the WR23, reaching double-digit fantasy points only twice the rest of the season.

The positives are glaring with Egbuka: he has already flashed his fantasy potential! Add on the fact that Mike Evans is gone and Chris Godwin is 30 years old, with an injury history, and it feels like we're cooking with gas. Oh, we can't just ignore the bad? No, that's totally fair. Egbuka suffered a hamstring injury and was never really the same after, but Baker Mayfield also didn't help the situation. Pro Football Reference ranked Mayfield as the QB27 in terms of on-target pass percentage (he finished 10th in 2024)—his TD rate also regressed to a more average 4.8% rate.

Fantasy Life has Egbuka projected for 122 targets in 2026 and I'm betting on the talent we saw in the first half of the season because he's shown the capability of putting up big numbers.

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Fantasy Football Mailbag: Will Tyler Shough Outperform His ADP?