Fantasy Football Outlook After Nico Collins Signs New Contract Guarantee With Houston Texans
Jorge Martin examines the fantasy football outlook for redraft and dynasty leagues after Nico Collins signed to stay with the Houston Texans.
Nico Collins has reached an agreement for a salary increase for each of the next two seasons to remain with the Houston Texans. The 27-year-old Michigan product has been one of the top WRs in the game since breaking out during the 2023 season.
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Nico Collins Fantasy Football Outlook with Houston Texans
Collins was not on the fantasy radar after his first two seasons, during which he never amassed more than 37 catches or 481 receiving yards for a moribund Houston franchise. But alongside new HC DeMeco Ryans, rookie QB C.J. Stroud passed for 4,108 yards and 23 TDs to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) honors. His main target was Collins.
Listed at 6-foot-4, 222 pounds, Collins was easy to find on the way to catching 80 balls for 1,297 yards and 8 TDs. His 3.11 yards per route run was elite, and he had arrived as a top-10 WR for the next two seasons.
Even with Stroud taking a bit of a step back in the passing department the past two seasons, Collins has remained far and away the best weapon for the Texans. In 2024, he caught 68 balls for 1,006 and 7 TDs, backing it up last season with a productive line of 71-1,1176 on a career-high 120 targets
Injuries have been a concern for Collins, as he’s battled hamstring issues multiple times the past three seasons—his career high in games played is 15—and suffered two concussions last season. The second was during the Wild Card round, forcing him to miss the Divisional Round loss to the Patriots.
Collins is the clear WR1 for the Texans heading into the 2026 season, as his fantasy football projections have him playing in 16 games, drawing 128 targets for 1,246 yards and 7.2 TDs. The projected targets are almost 50 more than No. 2 target Jayden Higgins, whose own projection has him catching 48 balls for 611 yards and 4 TDs. Collins is the WR8 in our fantasy football rankings.
Stroud is going to be the key, as he needs to make strides back to where he was in his rookie season.
Dynasty Fantasy Football Value for Nico Collins
Because he’s still very much in his prime, Collins is the WR9 in our dynasty fantasy football rankings. His Utilization Scores have been consistent since his breakout, as he’s put up marks of 73, 79 and 75, respectively, the past three seasons.
Looking at the offensive environment around him with the Texans, he is clearly the focal point. The Texans traded for David Montgomery this offseason, after Joe Mixon missed last season with a foot injury, so the goal is for the running game to improve to keep defenses honest when it comes to Collins.
Higgins could take a step forward in Year 2, but with this Houston defense remaining arguably the best in the NFL, there may not be much more than the 79 targets he’s projected to earn this season. Collins may be the only fantasy-relevant player worth starting on a week-to-week basis, much less season-to-season for dynasty purposes. Montgomery will be drafted as an RB2, but will have to keep touches away from Woody Marks to be an every-week starter.
Collins is going at the 2-3 turn in Underdog best ball drafts, in a range with George Pickens, Trey McBride and A.J. Brown. His usage when he’s on the field remains very good—83% route participation with a 25% target share—so he’s a great pick in both dynasty and redraft leagues. The leg injuries are a concern, as are the repeated concussions. These red flags are the only things keeping Collins from being drafted earlier.
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