Fantasy Football Playoffs Are Here, Keep Eyes on The Prize
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by 1440, we preview the Utilization Report, Waiver Wire, and Sheesh Report, along with more big information.
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by 1440:
The fantasy hourglass is looking bottom-heavy, with just a few grains left to fall after Ja’Marr Chase sealed several fantasy managers’ playoff fate with that 40-yard game-winning TD with a little more than a minute left in the 27-20 Monday night Bengals’ victory over the Cowboys.
This is it, people. A single focus. Eyes on the prize. I can’t speak for you, but it’s all worth it—there’s no greater joy than filling a league trophy with leaguemates’ tears. Let’s close out strong.
First and foremost on the road to fantasy glory? Roster efficiency. Trim fat for upside running back possibilities, regardless of initial outlook. Reminds me of my favorite story from all the way back in 2011 to this exact point. Top-scoring fantasy RB Matt Forte goes down for Chicago right before the fantasy playoffs. Everyone predictably scrambled for apparent RB2 Marion “The Barbarian” Barber, whom I had no chance at. But rather than sit around reacting, I dropped a bench WR for Bears’ RB3 Khalil Bell—who wound up taking over the job Week 15 with back-to-back 20+ fantasy-point outings, winning leagues for savvy grinders like myself.
Boomer anecdotes aside, I transform into a truffle pig for fantasy value when it gets down to crunch time. Week 14 shook the etch-a-sketch for a possible reset in a few backfields. Despite leaving with trainers and the unimpeachable Kyle Shanahan saying the injury required an MRI, Isaac Guerendo insists it was all “just precautionary and he feels great.” Who are you gonna believe? Him or your lyin’ eyes?
After what the 49ers did to us between Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, I’m fine fading those media pressers every time. Players can’t be trusted. So fantasy GMs will inevitably clamor for the services of Marion Barber, I mean Patrick Taylor. Could this year’s unheralded league-winning backup actually be Israel Abanikanda? It wouldn’t shock me if given the role. He’s clearly the more explosive player. Reminiscent of someone I know.
Not many spots to vie for immediate playing time outside of maybe New York, where Isaiah Davis not only outplayed fantasy darling and heir apparent Braelon Allen—he was the only Jet RB to earn goal-to-go snaps against the Dolphins. That flippening could already be underway.
Better to be one week early than a single day late …
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain’s Utilization Report: WRs Are Surging
- Kendall Valenzuela’s Week 15 Waiver Wire Adds
- Watercooler: Saquon Love
- Ian Hartitz’s Sheesh Report from Week 14
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Week 15 Utilization Report
Let's follow the data to identify the top waiver wire options, trade targets, upgrades, and downgrades based on what we learned in Week 14.
Note: as you read through the Utilization Report, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.
Jauan Jennings has dominated since the loss of Brandon Aiyuk.
Jennings has played in five games since the loss of Aiyuk. Over that span, he has the top Utilization Score (8.3) and leads the team in target share (32%) by a large margin while averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game.
Despite a dip in fantasy points in Weeks 12 and 13, with Brock Purdy battling a shoulder injury and a snow game, Jennings' underlying utilization never wavered. He notched 27% and 29% target shares in the down performances.
Based on the last four years of data, Jennings' Utilization Score comps have averaged 16.6 points, with the vast majority securing a WR1 campaign.
- WR1 to 6 finishes: 7%
- WR7 to 12 finishes: 64%
- WR13 to 18 finishes: 29%
Jennings UPGRADES to low-end WR1 territory.
Jordan Addison is on a heater, but can he keep it up?
Addison has improved his Utilization Score by 1.7 points over the last four weeks—the third-most behind Puka Nacua (+2.1) and Adam Thielen (+2.0).
Over that stretch, the second-year wide receiver boasts a 9.4 Utilization Score with 23.5 points per game. He leads the team with a whopping 29% target share and 42% air-yards share.
While Jefferson remains the undisputed WR1 in Minnesota, Addison is showing why he was a first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. He can beat defenders at every level of the field and offers home-run-hitting upside with the ball in his hands. But his scoring potential hasn't been restricted to big plays—he leads the team with a 40% share of end-zone targets over the last month.
Addison's season-long Utilization Score (6.8) comps haven't been WR1 caliber, but many have notched a WR2 season.
- Fantasy points per game: 12.8
- WR13 to 24 finishes: 27%
- WR25 to 36 finishes: 40%
- WR37 to 48 finishes: 34%
The season-long data tells us that Addison is due for negative regression. That makes sense, considering he might battle ups and downs in a crowded offense with Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. However, the Vikings' attack is strong enough to power multiple weapons—Sam Darnold ranks eighth in passing yards per game (254) and third in TDs (2.2). Additionally, Addison's recent production could be the product of a massive leap forward by a young player, which would make the season-long Utilization Score less relevant.
Addison UPGRADES to high-end WR3 status and offers high-end WR2 upside.
MORE UTILIZATION REPORT TAKEAWAYS
Week 15 Waiver Wire Pickups
Isaiah Davis, RB, Jets (11% rostered)
Braelon Allen is rostered in more then 40% of leagues, and if he is still available he is definitely the running back to get from this Jets backfield. Isaiah Davis actually had a solid role for the Jets in Week 14 against the Dolphins—he notched 10 carries for 40 yards and a touchdown, while catching 3 of 6 targets for 26 yards, for 15.7 fantasy points. He had a 7.5 Utllization Report Score, which is on the higher end of that scale.
Of course, we are going to have to see if Breece Hall is good to go this week against the Jaguars (which is a smash matchup). While the Jets have been eliminated from the playoffs, the team has said they aren't going to shut Hall down for the season … for now.
Patrick Taylor, RB, 49ers (4% rostered)
So, the 49ers actually can't have nice things this season. I guess we were supposed to stash the backup, backup, backup to the backup running back this season. LOL. Isaac Guerendo was worth spending all your FAAB on for Week 14—he had 78 rushing yards on 15 carries for 2 touchdowns and 50 yards on 2 receptions, all good for 26.8 fantasy points. But the 49ers believe that Guerendo could have a sprained foot and with the team on a short week taking on the Rams for Thursday Night Football, it's best to prepare to be without him.
Patrick Taylor seems like the clear back who will step into a bigger role if Guerendo can't go. Israel Abanikanda is a total wild card, but I still think he's worth a stash.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
🔮 Who can you trust in the fantasy playoffs? Ian, Chris, and Charch ponder that and more questions at this most important time of the season.
🚑️ Injury updates. Isaac Guerendo, George Pickens.
👑 A Song for Saquon, who’s about to crown champions in the coming weeks.
🏆️ OK, we get the Pop Tart Bowl. What about the Cricket Celebration Bowl and StaffDNA Cure Bowl?
🤞 Need fantasy playoffs reinforcements? The Fantasy Life Waiver Wire Tool has you covered.
👀 More Brock Bowers propaganda. How’s he doing it?
Week 14 Sheesh Report
by Ian Hartitz
Xavier Legette might have had the sheesh of the year
There was 1:29 left in the 4th quarter. The Panthers were driving. The Eagles were sweating. The dude who bet $3.1 million on Philly's moneyline was freaking the f*ck out.
And that's when rookie WR Xavier Legette suffered one of the sheesh-iest drops of the entire 2024 season.
The potential 32-yard TD wasn't guaranteed to win the game, considering an extra point was needed and Jalen Hurts would have had 44 seconds to get the Eagles in position for a game-winning field goal, but still: Sheesh.
This is sadly not the first time Bryce Young's late-game heroics have still resulted in a loss. In fact, it's the third time in as many weeks:
vs. Chiefs: 3:21 remaining in 4th. Five plays, 49 yards, game-tying TD and two-point conversion … only for Patrick Mahomes to quickly drive the offense down the field for a game-winning field goal.
vs. Bucs: 3:05 remaining in 4th. Nine plays, 60 yards, go-ahead TD. Then Young took the offense 25 yards in 4 plays in OT to set up a game-winning field goal … before Chuba Hubbard lost a fumble, leading to Baker Mayfield and Co. instead hitting the walk-off.
vs. Eagles: 2:58 remaining in 4th. Thirteen plays, 45 yards, go-ahead TD dropped by Legette. Sheesh.
At least Young is indeed starting to live up to the hype that comes with any No. 1 overall draft pick. For that, Panthers fans should be pumped, even if Legette's disappointing performance stood out as one of week's biggest examples of pass catchers leaving plenty of yards on the field …
Dropped TDs and more sheeshy moments from Week 14
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