Every fantasy season, a handful of established veterans climb to heights well beyond their past performance. These sun-running outliers leave fantasy managers trying to figure out how to weight the recent spike in performance relative to the player's historical numbers. Should we recalibrate our priors, or was Lady Luck the primary driver, making these players prime regression candidates?

Today, we will analyze some of the luckiest veterans from 2024 and evaluate their prospects for the 2025 fantasy season.

2025 Regression Candidates For Fantasy Football

Baker Mayfield | QB | Buccaneers

Mayfield came through in spades for fantasy managers in 2024, averaging 22.6 points per game. That number obliterated the previous high of 18.3 from his rookie season. In his two seasons with the Bucs, Mayfield has QB3 and QB11 finishes in points per game, which has early drafters feeling bullish, especially after the Buccaneers doubled down on their passing attack with the addition of wide receiver Emeka Egbuka in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. 

While a nuclear season from Tampa Bay's passing attack is undoubtedly in the range of outcomes, even with the addition of Egbuka, Mayfield is more likely due for negative regression given how hot he ran in 2024. The eighth-year signal caller set career-high marks in multiple key categories, which won't be easy to duplicate.

Touchdowns Per Pass Attempt

Mayfield threw a touchdown on 7.2% of his pass attempts, well above his career average of 5.0% and previous career high of 5.6%. Over the last three years, the average starting-caliber NFL quarterback tossed a touchdown on 4.6% of their passes. Mayfield is still projected for a strong season at 5.2% with 27.7 touchdowns, but that is far lower than the 41 he collected in 2024. Expect his passing touchdowns to come down.

Passing Yards Per Attempt (YPA)

The Tampa Bay signal caller was highly efficient, with a 7.9 YPA in his second season with the team. That mark was well above his career average of 7.3, which matches the three-year average across the league for starting quarterbacks. Mayfield projects for 7.4 yards per attempt with 3,943 yards—significantly below his 4,500 yards in 2024. Expect Mayfield's passing yards to come down.

Rushing Yards Per Game

Not only did the 30-year-old quarterback soar to new heights via the air, but he also delivered an outlier-type rushing season with 22.2 yards per game. That total was a whopping 11.9 yards more than his previous high and marked a 101% improvement over his career average of 11 per contest. His 6.4% scramble rate was two percentage points above his career average.

The crafty veteran may have learned how to identify optimal scrambling conditions that give him a new edge moving forward. However, veterans typically scramble less as they get older, and we shouldn't expect a repeat performance of 22 yards per game on the ground—he projects for 14.7 per game. Expect Mayfield's rushing yards per game to come down.

Takeaway: Mayfield remains a viable target in fantasy drafts, projecting as my QB9. However, that is a slightly lower than his QB7 price tag, and multiple signal callers that offer a similar range of outcomes go later, like Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, and Trevor Lawrence.

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James Cook | RB | Bills

After averaging 13.9 fantasy points per game in 2023, Cook exploded for 16.7 as the RB8 in 2024. Typically, a role expansion is an underlying driver for that sort of year-over-year growth. However, that wasn't the case with Cook. In fact, his opportunities per game in 2023 were better than in  2024. 

• Rushing attempts per game: 13.9 vs. 12.9
• Routes per game: 18.1 vs. 14.1
• Targets per game: 3.1 vs. 2.4

If we dig a layer deeper into Cook's Utilization profile, we find a similar theme.

• Snaps: 55% vs. 48%
• Rush attempts: 46% vs. 46%
• Routes: 47% vs. 40%
• Targets: 10% vs. 8%
• Inside five-yard line attempts: 15% vs. 48%
• Two-minute snaps: 30% vs. 19%

The 23-percentage-point climb in totes inside the five-yard line is the only category where Cook improved, but it is important. When you pair that with the Bills' move to a run-balanced attack with a -3% dropback rate over expected (DBOE), Cook handled 15 attempts inside the five-yard line in 2024 versus a total of five over the previous two seasons.

Cook scored a jaw-dropping 16 scores on the ground, punching in a score on 7.7% of his attempts. In the two previous seasons, he scored on 2.2% and 0.8% of his totes, and the NFL average is 3.1% over the last three seasons. While we shouldn't expect Cook's rushing touchdown rates to go back to pre-2024 levels, he is a near lock for regression. I have him keeping a larger role inside the five-yard line, but his touchdown rate is coming back down to earth, projecting 7.2 rushing scores.

Takeaway: Don't overvalue Cook's massive uptick in fantasy points per game due to the unsustainable nature of his 7.7% touchdown rate. If the Bills ever give Cook 60 to 65% of the snaps—never say never—he would offer legit top-six RB upside, but the odds of him securing another RB8 finish without a role expansion are thin.

Tee Higgins | WR | Bengals

Higgins notched his best fantasy season ever in 2024, averaging 18.7 points. That was three better than his previous mark of 15.7 in 2021. The sixth-year wide receiver has been tough to figure out as a target-earner. After adjusting for games missed, Higgins has notched three mediocre seasons and two good ones.

• 2020: 19%
• 2021: 25%
• 2022: 18%
• 2023: 18%
• 2024: 24%

The Bengals see Higgins as a top-notch talent after signing him to a four-year, $115 million contract with $40.9 million guaranteed. However, as fantasy players, we have to be open to the idea that Higgins ran into a spike target share season just in time for a massive payday.

Not only did Higgins hit it big in the targets department, but he also almost doubled his previous touchdowns per route rate.

• 2020: 1.2%
• 2021: 1.2%
• 2022: 1.3%
• 2023: 1.3%
• 2024: 2.2%

Higgins scored a mouth-watering 10 receiving touchdowns in just 12 games in 2024. While we love the Bengals' offensive environment and Higgins has been consistently good at generating touchdowns, 2.2% is outlier territory, making it a number that is not likely to repeat.

Takeaway: Higgins has three top-24 finishes in five years on a points-per-game basis, including a No. 3 rank in 2024, making him a valuable fantasy asset. However, when you add it all up, the sixth-year veteran ran super hot in the TD department last year, and there are still questions regarding his talent level as a target earner. His current price tag of WR12 feels bullish.

Terry McLaurin | WR | Commanders

McLaurin enjoyed a career season with Jayden Daniels taking over the starting job in Washington in 2024. The veteran wide receiver scored 15.9 fantasy points per game, fueling a WR14 finish based on points per game. McLaurin notched WR31, WR25, and WR38 campaigns in the previous three seasons while posting very similar underlying numbers.

• 2021: 1.81 YPRR, 24% targets, 12.6 points per game
• 2022: 2.04 YPRR, 23% targets, 13.5 points per game
• 2023: 1.56 YPRR, 22% targets, 12.3 points per game
• 2024: 1.98 YPRR, 23% targets, 16.2 points per game

So what changed? You got it, touchdowns. McLaurin scored a whopping 13 with a touchdown per route rate of 2.4%, almost three times what we saw over the previous three seasons.

• 2021: 0.9% 
• 2022: 0.9%
• 2023: 0.6%

While Daniels unlocks a new ceiling for McLaurin as a scorer, luck also played a key role in 2024, and we should expect regression in the touchdown department in 2025.

Takeaway: McLaurin's average fantasy finish in the three years before the arrival of Daniels was WR31. While he certainly deserves a bump after his WR14 finish in 2024, drafters likely aren't getting much upside at the price of WR17. He is a solid but not elite target earner in an improved offense, but the touchdown rate is likely to come down, which could add up to a high-end WR3 instead of a mid-range WR2.

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