The NFL news cycle is starting to pick back up, training camps are in full swing, and preseason football will be here before we know it. Most fantasy leagues will begin drafting about a month from now, which means the next four to five weeks are crucial for identifying player targets, evaluating fantasy football ADP, and strategizing for your drafts.

One of the easiest traps to fall into is assuming that what happened last season is the baseline for a player. In reality, production ebbs and flows from season to season as circumstances change. Most fantasy leagues, and therefore ADP, tend to overvalue what happened last season which can lead to overreactions. This, in turn, creates opportunities that smart fantasy managers can exploit.

The goal of this article is to identify players who performed above or below a reasonable baseline expectation for their talent and situation last season. We know there will be outliers in 2025 like there are every season, but I like to think of the positive regression candidates as players with the wind at their back while the negative regression candidates face a headwind when it comes to repeating last season's performance.

Positive Regression Candidates at WR in Fantasy Football

George Pickens | Cowboys

At the end of the season, I wouldn't be surprised if we look back on the George Pickens trade as one of the most impactful moves of the offseason. The 24-year-old is a mercurial talent, but he is getting a major upgrade to his situation by moving from Pittsburgh to Dallas. In each of the last two seasons, the Steelers ranked 29th in total pass attempts, while Dallas has ranked third (2024) and eighth (2023). Last year, the Cowboys attempted 138 more passes than the Steelers did. The gap this season will probably be similar, so even though Pickens will be the clear second option behind CeeDee Lamb, that doesn't mean he has to see less volume in 2025.

Over the last two seasons, Pickens has been right around the 100 target mark. If the Cowboys are attempting somewhere around 600 passes again, he only needs to be at a 17% target share to comfortably earn a similar amount of targets. I expect him to be around 20% and potentially above that.

The Fantasy Life projections have Pickens setting career highs in targets, receptions, and TDs, which points to the immense upside provided by the change of scenery. If his base projections are calling for career highs and a top-24 fantasy finish, then his ceiling outcome should at least be a fringe WR1. I'm excited to see what Pickens can do in a pass-heavy offense with the best QB he has gotten to play with so far. He will be a priority selection for me in drafts this summer if his ADP remains outside of the first 50 picks.

Tyreek Hill | Dolphins

The Dolphins are one of the most interesting teams of the 2025 season. They have an extremely talented skill position group, but need to stay healthy in order to get over the hump and actually make noise down the stretch.

There are valid concerns that Tyreek Hill just isn't the same player he used to be now that he is 31 years old. I'm not totally dismissing that possibility, but there were extenuating circumstances with Hill's wrist injury and Tua Tagovailoa missing eight games. If those were the primary reasons for his dip in production, then Hill is a major bounceback candidate in 2025. We've already seen proof this offseason that Tyreek Hill is as fast as ever, so I'm willing to bet that he still has enough left in the tank to be much better than he was last season.

Even if he doesn't return to the 1,700+ yard production he had during his first two seasons in Miami, it shouldn't be too difficult for him to go well over 1,000 yards and score a couple more TDs than last year. That is what the Fantasy Life projections have for a median outcome, which means there is upside for even more if things break right.

If your leaguemates are writing off Hill's potential to return to elite WR status, that can work to your benefit by getting a discount on one of the most explosive weapons in the NFL.

Negative Regression Candidates at WR In Fantasy Football

Terry McLaurin | Commanders

We finally saw the full breakout from Terry McLaurin last year as the primary beneficiary of Jayden Daniels' immediate success. The seventh-year pro has been consistent, topping 1,000 receiving yards in five straight seasons, but he was stuck at four or five receiving TDs per year from 2020 to 2023. In 2024, he nearly doubled his previous career high for TDs in a season when he hauled in 13. 

Despite the ongoing contract dispute, McLaurin will almost certainly be back as the team's top receiver in 2025, but it isn't exactly the same situation. There is more competition for targets in Washington, with the biggest offseason addition being Deebo Samuel, whom the team traded for back in March. Deebo isn't coming off his best season, but he is much more of a proven player than the depth pieces behind McLaurin last season.

I'm also intrigued by fourth-round rookie WR Jaylin Lane as someone who could play a role for them this season. Zach Ertz will still be a major part of the offense, and even Luke McCaffrey could take a step forward this season, although I am less excited about him. In my opinion, the depth in the pass-catching corps is much better this year than it was last year, which is good for the offense overall, but not great for McLaurin.

McLaurin will still be a valuable fantasy contributor, but he faces an uphill battle to match what he did last season. The Fantasy Life fantasy football projections have McLaurin at 1,044 receiving yards and 7.9 TDs. Very solid production but well below the output that put him at the WR6 in half-PPR scoring last season.

Rashod Bateman | Ravens

It's tricky to distinguish between a breakout and a one-off spike in production that isn't sustainable. In Bateman's case, there are a few reasons I lean towards the former. The biggest issue I have is that the most significant leap in production came in the TD department, which is notoriously volatile. From a volume and efficiency standpoint, Bateman was only slightly better than he had been at various points throughout his first three seasons.

His 67 targets were only two more than his rookie year, and he didn't set career highs in catch percentage, yards per catch, or yards per route run. That doesn't scream breakout to me.

One thing that does stand out to me as a point in Bateman's favor is that his average depth of target has increased every year of his career. His aDOT last season was more than five full yards higher than in his rookie season. This suggests the team has finally found that his best role is as a deep threat.

However, this is still a crowded offense when it comes to pass catchers. Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and DeAndre Hopkins will all play a meaningful role. This limits Bateman's ability to see an increase in overall workload, so I am expecting him to play a similar role to last season with 60-70 targets.

Per the PFF Expected Points model, Bateman's expected production last year was 638 receiving yards and 5.8 TDs. That is a solid season, and both would have been career high marks, but they are a long way off the 756 yards and nine TDs he recorded that put him on the fantasy radar throughout last season.

As Lamar Jackson's deep threat, you can be sure Bateman will have some big games, but they will be hard to predict and I expect them to be infrequent enough to make him a frustrating fantasy asset. He's a fine pick in best ball formats where you don't have to choose when to start him, but I'm not buying the hype in traditional managed leagues.

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