Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Rewind: Up Goes Brian Thomas Jr.
Sam Wallace takes another hard look at how NFL rookies are moving up and down the rankings going into fantasy football drafts.
So much can (and does) change between the NFL Draft and Week 1 of the NFL Season. With opening weekend right around the corner, let's revisit the 2024 Rookie Class and re-rank them based on their respective offseasons and what they can offer dynasty managers both this season and beyond.
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Rookie Rankings Pre-Week 1
1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR—Arizona Cardinals
There was never really a question of who would be the No. 1 option from this class. Marvin Harrison Jr. has one of the best Rookie WR Model scores in our database and there's no reason he shouldn't dominate from Day 1 in Arizona.
2. Malik Nabers, WR—New York Giants
Don't let poor QB play dissuade you from drafting and starting Malik Nabers with confidence. As you can see above, his profile is every bit as good as Harrison's, he just lacks the quality QB. It won't matter as his underlying metrics during Week 2 of the preseason demonstrate just how high his ceiling is.
3. Rome Odunze, WR—Chicago Bears
Rome Odunze represents the end of the Tier 1 wideouts from this class, and dynasty managers will need to be a touch more patient with him in Year 1. This past weekend, he left the field on 12 personnel snaps over the first three drives with the starters. It looks like he'll be the No. 3 WR behind both DJ Moore and Keenan Allen to start the year.
Everything is there for long-term success, we just have to wait a little bit longer.
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4. Xavier Worthy, WR—Kansas City Chiefs
The Hollywood Brown injury opened the door for Xavier Worthy to establish a strong connection with Patrick Mahomes, and the results are already speaking for themselves. In just two preseason games, Worthy has a 25% target share to go along with an aDOT over 20.
With Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce handling the underneath/short-yardage work, Worthy has been free to decimate defenses down the field.
How did the NFL let this happen?
5. Brian Thomas, WR—Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Thomas has as good a chance as anyone to lead the Jaguars in most/all receiving categories this year. With his primary competition being Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, there's no true WR1 talent on the roster. Thomas played 100% of the snaps with the starters in Preseason Week 1 and has the physical profile to be a future No. 1 option.
6. Brock Bowers, TE—Las Vegas Raiders
He may have absolutely nuked the value of Michael Mayer, but there's plenty of reason for optimism surrounding Brock Bowers. In the seven years of data we have in the Rookie TE Model, Bowers has the second-best model score of all time behind only Kyle Pitts.
The rookie split time with Mayer in Preseason Week 1, but rested this past weekend. Look for him to be a key piece of the Raiders' offense this season and beyond.
7. Keon Coleman, WR—Buffalo Bills
In addition to being an absolute gem of a human being and an interviewer's dream, Keon Coleman has a pretty clear path to solid production in Year 1. Partnering with Josh Allen is never a bad thing, and with a WR room made up of Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir, it could very well be Coleman dominating opposing defenses.
Last weekend, Dwain McFarland mentioned, “Coleman registered his second consecutive 100% route participation mark with the starters over the first five drives.”
8. Ladd McConkey, WR—Los Angeles Chargers
Similar to Thomas and Coleman, the path for Ladd McConkey to establish immediate chemistry with his QB is wide open. The Chargers shipped off Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and are now left with Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and DJ Chark as their primary weapons, along with McConkey.
In Preseason Week 2, the rookie played the first two drives and posted a 64% route participation. He played 100% of snaps in 11 personnel but didn't see a snap in 12 personnel.
9. Jonathon Brooks, RB—Carolina Panthers
It's a weak RB class relative to what we've seen in recent years, but Jonathon Brooks is still the best of the bunch according to our Rookie RB Model.
A torn ACL has kept him sidelined since he entered the league, but there's hope he may be ready by Week 3 or 4. In any case, dynasty managers will need to be patient as Brooks gets back into game shape and adjusts to life in the NFL.
10. Caleb Williams, QB—Chicago Bears
Even in a 1-QB league, it's hard to justify Caleb Williams falling out of the first round in any rookie draft. We've only seen flashes on the field throughout the preseason, but the allure is certainly there. The Bears have done an excellent job of surrounding him with weapons so there's hope Williams can return on value as soon as this fall.
11. Jayden Daniels, QB—Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels offers the immense rushing upside that fantasy managers crave so badly. He's also a polished passer and was recently named the QB1 for the Commanders. While he doesn't have quite the same weapons as Williams, don't be surprised when Daniels finishes as a top-12 QB and the Commanders are in the mix for a Wild Card spot by the end of the season.
12. Adonai Mitchell, WR—Indianapolis Colts
I love it when teams give their young QBs weapons to work with and the Colts have done so for Anthony Richardson. They paid Michael Pittman and drafted Adonai Mitchell, the latter of whom can slide into the WR2 role as Josh Downs (ankle) works his way back from injury.
13. Trey Benson, RB—Arizona Cardinals
14. Xavier Legette, WR—Carolina Panthers
15. Blake Corum, RB—Los Angeles Rams
16. Jaylen Wright, RB—Miami Dolphins
17. Ricky Pearsall, WR—San Francisco 49ers
18. Ja'Lynn Polk, WR—New England Patriots
19. Bo Nix, QB—Denver Broncos
20. Drake Maye, QB—New England Patriots
21. J.J. McCarthy, QB—Minnesota Vikings
22. Jermaine Burton, WR—Cincinnati Bengals
23. MarShawn Lloyd, RB—Green Bay Packers
24. Ben Sinnott, TE—Washington Commanders
25. Roman Wilson, WR—Pittsburgh Steelers
26. Troy Franklin, WR—Denver Broncos
27. Javon Baker, WR—New England Patriots
28. Ray Davis, RB—Buffalo Bills
29. Tyrone Tracy, RB—New York Giants
30. Michael Penix, QB—Atlanta Falcons
31. Braelon Allen, RB—New York Jets
32. Jacob Cowing, WR—San Francisco 49ers
33. Bucky Irving, RB—Tampa Bay Buccaneers
34. Jalen McMillan, WR—Tampa Bay Buccaneers
35. Luke McCaffrey, WR—Washington Commanders
36. Jordan Whittington, WR—Los Angeles Rams
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