Fantasy Football Season On The Brink In Week 14, Go Deep

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Mike's Hard Lemonade:

Al Davis made the phrase “Just Win, Baby” famous. To do this, fantasy managers would do well to adhere to another Davis maxim: It’s better to be right than consistent.

Davis knew the value of a consistent approach, but he also realized there were times that it paid to go against the grain of that consistency.

This should be the mindset of all fantasy managers in prepping for the fantasy playoffs. It’s a good idea to use a play-the-percentages approach during the regular season, since the percentages are apt to pan out over a 14-game season.

The playoffs are a different matter. At that point, the bad teams have been culled out, and every remaining team can score big points. The postseason is swing for the fences time, and you need to have a roster that can make that approach pay off.

We’re here to help you successfully swing for those proverbial fences if you’ve already qualified for the postseason. We also have everything you need to gain a Week 14 win to earn that postseason berth.

If you have the Week 14 blues because Christian McCaffrey is on a bye, Danny Cross has you covered with advice for replacing CMC (Devin Neal tops his list). Cross also has Week 14 replacement suggestions for Drake Maye, Brock Purdy or Jaxson Dart, and multiple playoff stash recommendations.

If you want to plan ahead for upside playoff matchups, look no further than Pete Overzet’s list of players with perfect fantasy football playoff schedules. Chris Rodriguez tops this list, but you’ll also want to keep an eye on Lions wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa. Amon-Ra St. Brown played last night, but is still dealing with an ankle injury.

Want to know if you can count on Adonai Mitchell, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, Brenton Strange or Darren Waller down the stretch? Ian Hartitz gives you the skinny on their rest-of-season prospects as well as a litany of other must-read insights in his 10 Things to Know for Week 14.

Hartitz also pairs up with Matthew Freedman to go over every Week 14 matchup in fantasy football. This fast-paced YouTube show reviews what we can expect from Omarion Hampton in his return (and by proxy for the playoffs). It also answers a question on many fantasy managers’ minds this week: Can we overly rely on any Bears pass catcher?

Fantasy managers looking for assistance in researching rest-of-season rankings can check out the Fantasy Life rest-of-season rankings tool. Adam Ronis and John Laghezza divide these rankings into sortable tiers. You can print these out or download them as CSV files and add them to your own research methods.

Guillotine Leagues™ are incredibly competitive at this time of year since everyone’s had 13 weeks to build a powerhouse. You need every advantage you can get in these leagues right now, and Matt LaMarca gives you that edge with his Week 14 Guillotine Leagues™ rankings. This article is also invaluable if you are in one of the many late-season Guillotine Leagues™ that are drafting this week (find out more about starting a new league here).

Now, let’s get back into the do-or-die Week 14 …

TARGET THESE WEEK 14 MISMATCHES

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If you're reading this newsletter, you likely have a Commissioner in your life. Maybe several. MAYBE IT'S YOU!! Either way, we all know it's a thankless job—constant emails and texts about rules, plus an endless stream of issues: "can we redo that pick, my computer froze"... "I didn't mean to drop Bucky Irving!" ... "When is the trade deadline?!" ... "How many teams make the playoffs?"—it's nightmare fuel.

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About Last Night …

If you roster Jahmyr Gibbs, well, welcome to the fantasy playoffs. In a game where Sonic tied Hall of Famer Barry Sanders with his 47th TD before his 24th birthday, Gibbs posted 3 TDs with 120 total yards (37.0 fantasy points!) to lead the Lions to a 44-30 victory over the Cowboys on Thursday night. Dak Prescott (376 yards) and Jared Goff (309 yards) both had big days, so there were plenty highlights on the night:

Jahmyr Gibbs closed out his hat trick of TDs. Yet somehow he registered only 43 rushing yards.
Wasn’t Amon-Ra St. Brown supposed to sit? The Sun God is a dawg.
Brandon Aubrey finished with 24 points. Lots of fantasy managers going against him are kicking rocks right now.
CeeDee Lamb left with a concussion, so Ryan Flournoy stepped up with 9-115-1 and 26.5 points.
Javonte Williams helped plenty with 17 carries, 67 yards and this TD.
Isaac TeSlaa always makes his catches count.

IS JAHMYR GIBBS APPROACHING OVERALL RB1?

Editors’ Picks

Hopefully Jahmyr Gibbs got you off to a great start on your playoff push. If you’re playing catchup after going against him, our Fantasy Life content, Rankings and Xfinity Best Projections will guide you on your comeback …

Week 14 Start/Sit: C-Rod Is The Unexpected Bell Cow

It’s that time of year, where having a pair of healthy running backs leading their teams’ respective backfields is of paramount importance. Heading into the playoffs with anything less feels like challenging LeBron James one-on-one. Thankfully, John Laghezza and Coach Gene Clemons have an option out in DC who could fit the bill. Just not that Bill:

“Spreadsheet and tape grinders unite as one. Chris Rodriguez is clearly the Commanders’ best conventional runner, leading the RB room in all the objective measurables since reassuming a prominent role Week 9 versus Seattle: +0.07 EPA/attempt, 4.6 yards/rush, 57.0% success rate, 9.1% explosive rush rate. Unfortunately, despite soaking up most of the goal-line work regardless, his ceiling’s perpetually capped with Washington always trailing.

Enter J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings, who don’t currently look capable of blowing anyone out—especially a Commanders squad that just took Denver down to the wire. Minnesota defends the run fairly well, though the Vikings have struggled with tackle success the past month, and therefore yards after contact per rush—precisely Rodriguez’s wheelhouse. Two tuddies … who says no?”

This being such a crucial week for many who are trying to make the fantasy playoffs, this start/sit column has plenty under-the-surface information that will help you make the best lineup decisions come gameday. ⤵️

STARTS AND SITS FOR WEEK 14

WR/CB Matchups to Target and Fade for Week 14

There’s a light at the end of the tunnel. The feelings of exhaustion start to take hold around this time of year. We’re getting into the holiday season. Thoughts of taking time off work or school are turning into actual plans. But that doesn’t mean we don’t have fantasy rosters to manage. It’s the playoffs! If anything, these weeks matter the most. So, to help get you set for the weekend, Chris Allen found five WR/CB matchups to consider as you’re setting your rosters for Week 14 …

Emeka Egbuka vs the Saints

OK, if you were to look at just the left half of Emeka Egbuka’s game log chart since Chris Godwin got back on the field, you’d be happy (pinch to zoom in on the image).

The rookie receiver continues to be the focal point of the Bucs’ passing game. He’s been at the top in targets and air yards in two straight weeks. However, we don’t get points per air (or prayer) yard. The boom weeks we got from Egbuka to start the season feel like a lifetime ago. Well, at least to us. Probably not Baker Mayfield.

Week 10: 31.1% (Pressure Rate), 31.1% (Blitz Rate), 5 (Hits/Sacks)
Week 11: 21.2%, 9.1%, 3
Week 12: 41.7%, 25.0%, 2
Week 13: 36.4%, 36.4%, 2

Tampa’s QB1 has been under fire almost every snap. The shifting personnel protecting him has been a problem for both him and his receivers. Luckily, the Saints have a bottom-10-ranked pass rush. Mayfield should have more time to operate in the pocket. Plus, New Orleans’ secondary shouldn’t pose any problems either.

Similar to the Raiders, the Bucs employ zone coverage at a high rate (83.7%, fifth-highest). On the season, Egbuka’s 2.37 yards per route run against zone ranks 15th amongst all WRs. Plus, with at least Chris Godwin back, defenders are keying on just the first-year receiver. It’s part of why the former Buckeye saw his catchable target rate spike in Week 13. In what should be a favorable matchup, Egbuka should be able to get back into the WR2 conversation after Sunday.

MORE MATCHUPS TO TARGET AND FADE

Around The Watercooler

The latest fantasy and NFL gossip, news, memes and more from our merry band of football nerds …

🤗 All of here at Fantasy Life want to send a quick giant happy warm hug to Jake Robinson, founder of the Morning Huddle and author of The Athletic’s Scoop City newsletters, who shared a big announcement on Wednesday.

💪 Are you ready to raise Jayden Daniels in your rankings?

📣 You’ll feel plenty of cheer after reading Matthew’s 10 Facts You Need to Know.

💥 An explosion in scoring could lead to a big week in DFS.

🪓 Can you trust Emeka Egbuka to not get you chopped in Guillotine Leagues^TM?

🏈 Dave Canales said that Rico Dowdle is still the primary back. Really?

🚀 Who’s ready to pop in Week 14? The three biggest smash starts of the week.

🤔 You may be second-guessing starting Justin Jefferson, but the answer is clear.

👀 Once backup RBs, these players are skyrocketing up the ROS rankings and could be key pieces for your playoff push.

🧑🏼‍🍳 Bills-Bengals means it’s time to let James Cook cook.

😵 Start Tyrod Taylor. Are you a sicko?