Let's follow the data to identify the top waiver wire options, trade targets, upgrades and downgrades based on what we learned last week and how we can apply it to the Week 17 championship slate.

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1. Chris Olave is finishing the fantasy season strong.

If you have read this column much this year, you know that no other player has been called out more often as a candidate for positive regression than Olave. In fact, last week, he headlined the underperformer section.

In Week 16, Olave registered his best fantasy performance of the year with 36.8 points, following up a strong Week 15 performance with 20.5 points. He is now the WR8 overall in fantasy points per game (PPG) with 16.2. His Utilization Score of 85 ranks sixth.

Olave ranks strongly in multiple data points that drive the Utilization Score.

• Target share: 29% (11th)
• Targets per game: 9.3 (fifth)
• Catchable targets per game: 6.7 (sixth)
• Catchable air yards per game: 66.7 (sixth)

In seven games with Tyler Shough as the starting quarterback, Olave has averaged 17.7 fantasy points with an 85 Utilization Score. His historical comparisons have averaged 17.4 points with 41% finishing as top-six WRs.

• WR1 to WR6 performers: 41%
• WR7 to WR12 performers: 47%
• WR13 to WR18 performers: 12%

Olave is a low-end WR1 with high-end WR1 upside.

2. Kyle Pitts thrives again in Drake London's return.

London returned from a PCL injury that had kept him out of the previous four games in Week 16 and collected a 26% target share on an 83% route participation rate. Bijan Robinson also had a monster target share game (32%), but neither of those things derailed Pitts' recent hot streak.

The 2021 No. 4 overall draft pick posted his fifth consecutive game with a 25% target share or higher. He finished the day with 18.7 fantasy points and a 97 Utilization Score. Since Week 12, he has averaged 19.8 fantasy points with a 98 Utilization Score.

The recent hot streak has propelled Pitts to fifth in fantasy points per game (13.0) and third in Utilization Score (84) for the season. His 6.9 targets per game and 52 air yards per game rank second in both categories.

Pitts carries some fragility with London back in the lineup, but Week 16 showed that this offense can successfully consolidate around three players. His historical Utilization Score comparisons average 13.4 points per game, with 92% of his games securing top-six finishes.

• TE1 to TE3 performers: 42%
• TE4 to TE6 performers: 50%
• TE7 to TE9 performers: 8%

Pitts is a borderline high-end TE1.

3. Running backs who could be in larger roles in Week 17.

We have several backfield injury situations to monitor as we head into fantasy championship weekend.

Omarion Hampton | Chargers

Kimani Vidal missed the final drive of the game after injuring his neck on the seventh possession. Before Vidal's departure, Hampton was already enjoying his most significant role since his return from injury, with a 57% snap share and a 65% rush share. The rookie finished the game with a 69 Utilization Score and 16.5 fantasy points.

If Vidal is out, Hampton could pick up additional passing-down duties that would catapult him to low-end RB1 status from a Utilization perspective. Hassan Haskins would be the RB2 behind Hampton. Haskins iced the game against Dallas, handling the rushing duties on the final drive with a 17-point lead.

Hampton is trending in the right direction. He UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 status, and if Vidal is out next Saturday, Hampton would be a borderline RB1 against Houston. 

Rhamondre Stevenson | Patriots

TreVeyon Henderson exited the game on the third series against Baltimore due to a head injury. That led to a 95% snap share for Stevenson over the remainder of the game. The veteran back finished the game with 15.8 points and a 71 Utilization Score.

If Henderson can't go in Week 17, Stevenson will project as a strong RB2 with RB1 upside thanks to a great matchup against the Jets.

Jawhar Jordan | Texans

Woody Marks (ankle) was unable to suit up in Week 16, and Jordan operated as the lead option on the ground. He accounted for 65% of the rushing attempts and garnered 67% of the short-yardage snaps. He notched a 72 Utilization Score and 12 fantasy points. 

The 2025 sixth-round draft pick shared reps on passing downs, giving way to Dare Ogunbowale and Nick Chubb on obvious passing downs.

Should Marks miss another game on a short week with a Saturday game against the Chargers, Jordan would be a high-end RB3 option. Jordan is available in 92% of Yahoo leagues.

Aaron Jones | Vikings

Jordan Mason exited the game with an ankle injury on the first drive. Jones took over most of the rushing workload with 81% of the attempts. The veteran back also tacked on a 10% target share on a 52% route participation rate. He played 100% of the two-minute offense. Jones scored 11.3 points with a 73 Utilization Score.

With a short turnaround for a Thursday game, Jones is likely to lead the Vikings' backfield, but the QB situation isn't ideal. Unfortunately, J.J. McCarthy also left the game with a hand injury. That could mean Max Brosmer as the starting QB. 

Jones is a high-end RB3 option if Mason is out and Brosmer starts. If McCarthy is under center, he would upgrade to low-end RB2 territory against the Lions.

4. Utilization Score Trends

Trending Up

• RJ Harvey | RB | Broncos: Harvey has improved his Utilization Score over the last month. In five games since J.K. Dobbins went down, Harvey has averaged 16.8 points with a 79 Utilization Score. Over that span, he has accounted for 61% of the rushing attempts with a 47% route participation rate and 10% target share. The rookie back has been the clear-cut No. 1 option inside the five-yard line with 83% of the totes. The majority of Harvey's historical Utilization Score comps have been borderline RB1s (63%). 
   
• Kenneth Gainwell | RB | Steelers: Gainwell has increased his Utilization Score by five points over the last four outings. Over that stretch, he has an 18% target share with 5.3 looks per game, which has been the primary drive behind his fantasy goodness. Gainwell leads all RBs with at least 200 routes in targets per route run (TPRR) at 26%. Jaylen Warren continues to lead the way on the ground, but Gainwell has expanded his work on the ground, handling 34% of the attempts. Most of Gainwell's historical comps (55%) have finished as borderline RB2s.    
• Jameson Williams | WR | Lions: Williams has upped his Utilization Score by seven points. In six games without Sam LaPorta, Williams has 22% target share with 7.7 looks per game. He has 97.5 air yards and 0.5 endzone targets per game. Over that span, he has an 81 Utilization Score with 17 fantasy points per game. His historical comparisons averaged 17.7 points, with 88% notching a top-12 fantasy finish. 
   
• Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | Browns: Fannin has pushed his Utilization Score nine points higher over the last month. In five games as the starter, he has averaged 15.3 points per game with a mouth-watering 90 Utilization Score. Fannin leads the Browns with a 31% target share since entering a full-time role. His eight targets and 46 air yards per game are high-end TE1 numbers despite a struggling offense. His historical comparisons averaged 14.8 fantasy points, with 70% collecting top-three finishes.   

Trending Down

• Bucky Irving | RB | Bucs: Irving's Utilization Score has plummeted by nine points since his return from injury. He has averaged 11.9 points with a 64 Utilization Score. Irving continues to get the silent treatment from the Bucs coaching staff inside the five-yard line, with zero carries from in close. Instead, the coaching staff is feeding Sean Tucker, who has handled seven of eight carries inside the five-yard line over the last four games. Irving has also been less involved in the passing game, with a 6% target share, as the Bucs WR group has gotten healthier. Irving's historical Utilization Score comparisons averaged 12.1 fantasy points, with only 33% finishing as RB2s and 50% operating as RB3s.
   
• Emeka Egbuka | WR | Bucs: Egbuka's Utilization Score has dipped by four points over the last four games. And that might be the tip of the iceberg. Over the last two contests with Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan back in the fold, Egbuka has a 57% route participation rate and 17% tarouget share. He has 7.7 points per game with a 43 Utilization Score. Egbuka DOWNGRADES to WR4 status.
   
• Jake Ferguson | TE | Cowboys: Ferguson's Utilization Score continues to slide, dropping by five points over the last month. In six games since the return of CeeDee Lamb, he has a 14% target share, averaging 7.8 fantasy points. Over that period, his Utilization Score is 64. His historical comps averaged 9.3 points, with only 38% of them securing top-12 TE finishes.

5. Waiver Wire Roundup

RB

• Dylan Sampson | Browns: Quinshon Judkins suffered a broken fibula and a dislocated ankle against the Bills. Sampson was out due to hand and calf injuries. However, should Sampson return in Week 17, he would be in for a larger workload. It is hard to say for sure how Cleveland will split the backfield, but Sampson could handle half the rushing attempts and add significant value in the passing game. Sampson ranks third in TPRR (24%) out of all backs with at least 150 routes in 2025. He would be in the RB3 mix if healthy against the Steelers. Sampson is available in 89% of leagues.
   
• Raheim Sanders | Browns: If Sampson isn't ready, Sanders would be the favorite to handle the RB1 duties for Cleveland. Sanders accounted for 59% of the rushing attempts, including two totes inside the five-yard line. Trayveon Williams garnered the passing-down work, accounting for 100% of the two-minute offense. Sanders is available in 99% of leagues and would be a mid-range RB3 if Sampson is out.
   
• Emanuel Wilson |  Packers: Josh Jacobs was not in his regular role in Week 16 due to a nagging knee injury. The veteran back played only 39% of the snaps and accounted for 33% of the rushing attempts. As the game went on, Jacobs played fewer snaps, playing only 20% in the fourth quarter and 0% in overtime. Wilson played 69% of the snaps and handled 63% of the attempts in the fourth quarter and OT. If Jacobs can't play in Week 17, Wilson will be a mid-range RB2 against the Ravens. Wilson is available in 37% of leagues.

Utilization Bytes For Week 17

Running Back

• Audric Estime | Saints: Estime led the Saints' backfield with a 56% snap share but only notched a 23% rush share. Taysom Hill led the backfield with 50% of the carries. 
   
• Chase Brown | Bengals: Brown has averaged 21.4 points over four games since the return of Samaje Perine. Over that span, he has commanded 62% of the snaps, 52% of the attempts, a 56% route participation rate and 15% target share. He has an 86 Utilization Score. His historical comparisons averaged 16.7 points with 67% finishing in the top 12.
   
• Chris Rodriguez | Commanders: Rodriguez has handled 59% and 60% of the rushing attempts in his last two healthy games. Marcus Mariota is day-to-day due to hand and quad injuries. If Mariota can't play, it hurts Washington, but Rodriguez gets a favorable matchup against the Cowboys on Thursday night. Rodriguez is a mid-range RB3. 
   
• Isiah Pacheco | Chiefs: Pacheco completed his two-week takeover of the Chiefs' backfield. In Week 16, he accounted for 72% of the snaps and 67% of the rushing attempts. He was also active in the passing game with a 65% route participation rate and a 35% target share. He scored 13.5 points and collected an 80 Utilization Score. He is an RB3. 
   
• Jahmyr Gibbs | Lions: Gibbs has a 24% target share with 8.3 per game in six games without Sam LaPorta. 
   
• Javonte Williams | Cowboys: Williams only played 29% of the snaps in Week 15 due to a shoulder injury. In Week 16, he was limited to 57%. He tallied his lowest rushing attempt share (45%) of the season. Williams DOWNGRADES to low-end RB2 territory.
   
• Travis Etienne | Jaguars: Etienne scored 16.6 fantasy points and tied a season-high Utilization Score (87) with Bhayshul Tuten sidelined. Etienne also tied a season-high in target share at 16% and short-down-and-distance snaps (100%). Etienne is an RB1 without Tuten.
   
• Tyjae Spears | Titans: Spears collected a season-high in fantasy points (21.5) and Utilization Score (76). He continued to operate behind Tony Pollard, but notched a 33% attempt share with a 19% target share. Spears is an RB4.

Wide Receiver

• DJ Moore | Bears: With Rome Odunze and Luther Burden sidelined, Moore posted his highest Utilization Score of the season at 83. He had a season-high 24% target share. Over the last two games with the Bears banged up at WR, Moore had scored 22.9 and 21.9 fantasy points. Moore is a WR2 option in games without Odunze and Burden.
   
• Drake London | Falcons: London returned to action in Week 16 after missing the previous four contests. He only managed 5.7 fantasy points, but posted a substantial 26% target share on an 83% route participation rate. London is a low-end WR1.
   
• Jayden Reed | Packers: Reed notched a season-high 84% route participation rate against the Bears. Josh Whyle missed the game, which might have contributed to fewer multi-TE personnel groupings. If the Packers ever decide to place Reed in a full-time role, he would become a viable fantasy asset. Reed is a WR4.
   
• Jaylen Waddle | Dolphins: Waddle accounted for 31% of the targets and 48% of the air yards in Quinn Ewers' first start. He finished the day with a 68 Utilization Score and 10.2 fantasy points. Waddle is a high-end WR3.
   
• Michael Wilson | Cardinals: Wilson scored 13.2 fantasy points against the Falcons, but his target share (11%) fell off dramatically. Marvin Harrison Jr. returned to the lineup, but wasn't a target hog (11%). Wilson has scored 9.9 PPG in the last two games with Harrison. Wilson is a borderline WR2.
• Stefon Diggs | Patriots: Diggs has played well all season, as evidenced by his 2.28 yards per route run (YPRR). However, the Patriots have been unwilling to give him a full-time role. In Week 16, their hand was forced by injuries to Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas. That led to Diggs' second-highest route participation (80%) of the season. The veteran garnered nine targets and 89 air yards. He finished the day with 22.8 fantasy points and an 86 Utilization Score. Diggs is a mid-range WR2 if Boutte and Douglas are out in Week 17.  

Tight End

• AJ Barner | Seahawks: In two games without Elijah Arroyo, Barner has an 81% route participation rate and 16% target share. He has averaged 10.4 fantasy points with a 68 Utilization Score. Barner is a high-end TE2. 
   
• Juwan Johnson | Saints: With DeVaughn Vele on IR, Johnson scored 16.9 points with an 86 Utilization Score. Johnson is not in the full-time role we saw earlier in the season, with a 67% route participation rate. However, he is one of the top two remaining targets on the Saints. Johnson is a borderline TE1.
   
• Mike Gesicki | Bengals: Gesicki retained the slot role, playing ahead of Andrei Iosivas with the return of Tee Higgins. The veteran TE posted a 69% route participation rate with a 13% target share in Week 16. He had 47 air yards and one endzone target, helping up his Utilization Score (70) and fantasy production (12.5 points). Gesicki is a mid-range TE2 with TE1 upside.
   
• Taysom Hill | Saints: Hill was highly active in multiple aspects of the Saints' game plan in Week 16. He handled 52% of the rushing attempts, notched an 11% target share, and threw a pass for a touchdown to Olave. Hill appears to be the biggest winner from the Devin Neal injury. Hill is a boom-bust high-end TE2. 

Team Trends

We now have 16 weeks of data for most teams, making it a good time to examine team-level trends that affect fantasy production. You can find the data across all 32 NFL teams in the Team Styles tab of the Utilization Report tools.

• Dropback Over Expected (DBOE): How often teams pass the ball compared to their peers when considering the score differential over the last five weeks:
  • Cardinals: 8%
  • Jaguars: 6%
  • Broncos: 6%
  • Patriots: 5%
  • Lions: 5%
    ——
  • Chargers: -6%
  • Falcons: -6%
  • Bills: -7%
  • Dolphins: -7%
  • Ravens: -8%
  • Giants: -11%
• Neutral Playclock: Teams that are leaving more or less time on the playclock when the score is within three points (neutral situations) over the last five weeks. The NFL average is 8.3 seconds.
  • Cowboys: 13.2
  • Chiefs: 10.5
  • Patriots: 10.2
  • Saints: 10.2
  • Lions: 9.8
  • Broncos: 9.8
    ——
  • Jets: 5.7
  • Panthers: 5.1
• Play action pass rate: Teams that are utilizing play action the most per dropback over the last five weeks, which adds value to WRs and TEs on a per-route basis in fantasy:
  • Bills: 40%
  • Rams: 39%
  • Bears: 37%
  • Dolphins: 35%
  • Jets: 20%
    ——
  • Buccaneers: 19%
  • Bengals: 18%
  • Saints: 18%
  • Chiefs: 16%

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