Fantasy Football Takeaways: RJ Harvey Headlines Utilization Report For Week 12
Welcome to the Utilization Report, where Dwain McFarland highlights his top fantasy football takeaways heading into Week 12.
With fantasy trade deadlines looming and championships hanging in the balance, we focus more than ever on the rest-of-season range of outcomes in this week's Utilization Report.
The Top Fantasy Football Takeaways for Week 12
Let's follow the data to identify the top waiver wire options, trade targets, upgrades and downgrades based on what we learned in Week 11.
If you love all the sweet Utilization data below, you can access it all for yourself!
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Seasons: 2020 to 2025
Why should you care about the Utilization Score? Read this.
1. RJ Harvey Became The Clear RB1 For Denver In Week 11.
The Broncos' second-round pick only delivered eight points in a tough matchup against the Chiefs. Kansas City is the fifth-hardest matchup, holding opposing RB rooms to 3.7 fantasy points below their average (fantasy boost). But Harvey took charge of the backfield, commanding 61% of the snaps and rushing attempts. He also paced the backfield in target share at 9%.
On the one hand, this is excellent news, and better days are likely ahead for Harvey. On the other hand, his schedule is pretty tough the rest of the way based on DvP fantasy boost data:
Bye
Commanders: +2.9
Raiders: -3.5
Packers: -1.6
Jaguars: -3.4
Chiefs: -3.7
While the schedule isn't ideal, the volume is what we care most about, and Harvey is a plus player as a receiver. Of backs with at least 100 routes this season, the Broncos' new RB1 ranks fifth in targets per route run (TPRR) at 23%.
Christian McCaffrey is at 26% and De'Von Achane is at 25% as the top two options. Harvey is in the next tier after those names in the range of Jahmyr Gibbs (23%) and Bijan Robinson (22%). Harvey ranks eighth in yards per route run (YPRR) at 1.42. That is in the same tier as Gibbs and Breece Hall.
Harvey UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 territory, but his receiving chops could lift him beyond his schedule woes to give us RB1 upside.
2. Woody Marks Has Taken Over The RB1 Job In Houston.
Similar to Harvey, Marks disappointed in the Week 11 fantasy boxscore, managing just 6.1 points. However, he was the clear-cut RB1 for the second consecutive outing.
Over the last two games, Marks has distanced himself from Nick Chubb by a large margin. Over that span, the rookie has accounted for 72% of the snaps and 78% of the rushing attempts. He has averaged 11.1 points with a 69 Utilization Score.
Week 11 was an important data point because Marks led the way in a non-trailing game script, which was our primary concern about his Week 10 Utilization.
On the negative side, Marks has been inefficient as a runner. Of 37 backs with at least 80 attempts this year, Marks ranks 30th in yards per carry at 3.5. The Texans' offensive line ranks 24th in PFF Run Block grade (56.4). Marks ranks 26th in yards before contact at 1.1 per tote.
Marks was a prolific receiving back in college, so there is some untapped upside with his profile. To this point, he has been average in that department with a 16% TPRR. That ranks 25th out of 44 backs with at least 100 routes. His 1.22 YPRR ranks 15th.
The remaining schedule for Houston is a mixed bag based on our fantasy boost data from the DvP tool:
Bills: +3.3
Colts: -2.1
Chiefs: -3.7
Cardinals: +0.9
Raiders: -3.5
Chargers: +1.0
For the season, he has three games with a 60% or higher snap share. In those contests, he has an average Utilization Score of 71 with 11.6 PPG. His historical Utilization Score comparisons have averaged 13.8 points with 78% performing as top-24 RBs.
RB1 to RB12 performers: 20%
RB13 to RB24 performers: 58%
RB25 to RB36 performers: 22%
Marks UPGRADES to low-end RB2 territory but could unlock additional value if his passing-game usage improves.
3. Jameson Williams Is Trending Up.
Williams was primarily used as a deep threat over the first four games of the season with a 20.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT). Over those games, he averaged 9.5 points per game with a 56 Utilization Score.
Since then, his aDOT has come down to 9.6 yards, resulting in a 58 Utilization Score with 13.5 points per game. Over those six games, the former first-round NFL Draft pick has notched four top-20 finishes, including three top-12 weeks.
Over the last two games with Dan Campbell calling plays, Williams has enjoyed his most prolific role of the season with an 82 Utilization Score and 21.8 points per game. He has a 21% target share over that span.
Sam LaPorta was placed on IR due to a back injury ahead of Week 11. The team is hopeful he will be able to return in Week 15, but we don't have a firm timetable. At a minimum, we get three more contests with a less-crowded Lions passing attack, which bodes well for Williams.
The Lions' WR corps has a favorable schedule ahead, outside of a tough matchup against the Vikings in the fantasy championship.
Giants: +5.2
Packers: -0.8
Cowboys: +4.9
Rams: +1.5
Steelers: +3.1
Vikings: -4.7
Let's look at a couple of scenarios for the rest-of-season outlook for Williams.
Scenario 1: Williams sustains his role from the last two games.
This scenario is the bull case for Williams, using his 82 Utilization Score with Campbell calling plays. His historical Utilization Score comparisons averaged 16.6 points with 70% operating as WR1s in fantasy.
WR1 to WR12 performers: 70%
WR13 to WR24 performers: 26%
WR25 to WR36 performers: 4%
There are red flags with this scenario due to the small sample size and the potential return of Sam LaPorta. However, that doesn't make it an unreasonable way to think about Jamo's ceiling, given his elite playmaking ability. Campbell, as the play caller, is a wild card that could keep things rolling.
Williams would be a low-end WR1 in Scenario 1.
Scenario 2: Williams regresses, but looks more like 2024.
If we expand the sample to the last four games, Williams has a Utilization Score of 63. That score closely aligns with his 2024 score of 65, when he averaged 14.1 points on an 18% target share. His historical comparisons averaged 12.4 points, with the majority finishing as WR3s.
WR1 to WR12 performers: 0%
WR13 to WR24 performers: 15%
WR25 to WR36 performers: 45%
WR37 to WR48 performers: 38%
Williams looks more like a mid-range WR3 in Scenario 2.
Final takeaway: Williams profiles as a high-end WR3 with WR2 upside the rest of the way.
4. Tetairoa McMillan Boomed In Week 11, But Can He Keep It Up?
McMillan has been a Utilization Score underperformer all season. His underlying data indicated a player capable of much more. The levy was bound to break at some point. That happened against the Falcons with a 95 Utilization Score and 33 fantasy points.
As you can see above, McMillan has been a high-end target and air yards earner all season long. That is fantastic stuff, because McMillan is controlling the controllables. However, his breakout performance in Week 11 was due to Bryce Young's best performance of his career.
Young torched the Falcons' secondary for 448 yards and three TDs. For his career, Young has reached 300 yards passing in only three of 37 outings where he played at least 80% of the snaps. He has only three other games where he eclipsed 250.
In 24 of his games (65%), he has thrown for 200 yards or less. This season, he has eclipsed 200 only twice in nine games (22%). Yikes, y'all!!!
Given this data, the best way to evaluate McMillan's rest-of-season outlook is to use his season-long 78 Utilization Score. And guess what. That isn't bad!
McMillan has averaged 13.8 points per game, and his historical Utilization Score comparisons averaged 15.4. Of his 67 comparisons, 69% were top-18 performers.
WR1 to WR12 performers: 37%
WR13 to WR24 performers: 51%
WR25 to WR36 performers: 12%
The Panthers are in the playoff hunt, and their schedule for WR production based on fantasy boost is solid:
49ers: +4.3
Rams: +1.5
Bye
Saints: -2.7
Buccaneers: +2.1
Seahawks: -2.4
McMillan is a mid-range WR2 who could perform more like a low-end WR2 option due to his QB. If Young surprises with more performances like Week 11, McMillan offers WR1 upside.
Accounts for snaps and routes in addition to attempts and targets.
Accounts for catchable targets and catchable air yards.
The underlying role accounts for ~75% of a player's Utilization Score.
Uses fantasy points per game (PPG) as a proxy for talent (i.e., has the player done something with their opportunities). Fantasy PPG is worth ~25% of a player's Utilization Score.
Underperformers are candidates for positive regression, making them potential buy-low targets. Overperformers are candidates for negative regression, making them sell-high options.
Derrick Henry | RB | Ravens
Henry has averaged 16 points over the last four games with a 73 Utilization Score. Per his career, his involvement in the passing game is limited. That hurts his Utilization Score, but Henry has historically overcome that with touchdowns and big plays.
The veteran RB has remained efficient on the ground in the 2025 season.
Yards per attempt: 4.8 (11th out of 28 RBs with at least 100 attempts)
Yards after contact: 3.3 (ninth)
10-plus yard attempts: 12.8% (seventh)
The team is centering its playoff push around the ground game. Over the last four games, the Ravens have a -9% dropback rate over expected (DBOE), making them the second-most run-heavy team. Over that span, Baltimore ranks dead last in 11 personnel (one tight end and three wide receivers) snap rate. They are opting for heavy sets and playing smash-mouth football.
Over the next four games, Henry gets to play the Bengals twice. Cincinnati offers the No. 1 boost to opposing RB rooms.
Technically, Henry's Utilization Score aligns with his production, but this is a we-know-better situation given his history and the schedule. He ranks 19th in fantasy points per game (13.5), but winter is coming, y'all!
Players traded for Henry straight up on 11/17/2025 per FantasCalc:
Henry is a mid-range RB2 but offers mid-range RB1 upside over the next month.
Emeka Egbuka | WR | Buccaneers
Egbuka has cooled off over the last four games, averaging 12.2 points per game. However, his underlying Utilization remains strong with 10.3 targets and 111 air yards per game over that span.
It's worth noting that Egbuka was knocked out of the Week 6 game with a hamstring injury. Things haven't been as good in the fantasy boxscore since then. But that leaves room for upside if the injury has hampered his performance. Before the injury, he averaged 20.1 points with an 85 Utilization Score.
That early five-game stretch represents his ceiling. His comps averaged 17.3 points, with 87% recording top-12 seasons. But even if we want to take a more cautious approach, we can use his 77 Utilization Score for the season. His historical comps averaged 15.2 points, with 60% finishing in the top 18.
WR1 to WR12 performers: 31%
WR13 to WR24 performers: 53%
WR25 to WR36 performers: 16%
The schedule doesn't have any insurmountable barriers, but it is below average overall based on the fantasy boost allowed to WR units.
Egbuka remains a borderline WR1 despite the impending return of Chris Godwin.
Justin Jefferson | WR | Vikings
There have been a decent number of words written about Jefferson and the negative impact of J.J. McCarthy in this column over the past few weeks. None of that has changed. McCarthy doesn't appear ready for the prime-time lights.
Over the last three games with McCarthy under center, Jefferson has averaged only 11.8 points per game with a 76 Utilization Score.
Still, we are talking about an elite WR talent. We know he is better than this. And 10 targets and 115 air yards per game is still very encouraging. Even if we want to use Jefferson's 76 Utilization Score and ignore his illustrious career, his comparisons have averaged 15 points per game.
WR1 to WR12 performers: 26%
WR13 to WR24 performers: 53%
WR25 to WR36 performers: 21%
Furthermore, despite McCarthy's woes, at least Kevin O'Connell has shown a willingness to let the rookie throw the ball. Since McCarthy's return to the lineup, Minnesota's DBOE has been 4%.
The schedule for the Vikings WRs is very favorable the rest of the way based on fantasy boost data. The following two weeks aren't great, but from Week 14 to Week 16, we have three smash matchups.
Packers: -0.8
Seahawks: -2.4
Commanders: +6.4
Cowboys: +4.9
Giants: +5.2
Lions: +1.4
Trading for Jefferson still won't be easy because he was someone's first-round fantasy pick, and he still has cache name value. Still, it is worth kicking the tires to see if someone has grown tired of him. We are human beings. People get fed up. If you get lucky and can buy him at a low-end WR2 price tag, it's worth the dice roll.
Jefferson is a mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside.
Aaron Jones | RB | Vikings
Jones has taken over the RB1 duties in Minnesota over the last two games with 12.5 points per game and an 82 Utilization Score. He has a 70% snap share and has hogged 71% of the rushing attempts with a 16% target share.
His historical Utilization Score comps have averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game, with 94% of them performing as top-24 options.
RB1 to RB12 performers: 33%
RB13 to RB24 performers: 61%
RB25 to RB36 performers: 6%
The Vikings have two below-average matchups coming up, but after that, things are favorable until Week 17, per the fantasy boost data.
Packers: -1.6
Seahawks: -2.4
Commanders: +2.9
Cowboys: +3.0
Giants: +6.1
Lions: -3.8
Jones is a mid-range RB2 with sneaky RB1 upside the rest of the way.
Alvin Kamara | RB | Saints
I realize this feels gross. I am not saying to go out and overpay for Kamara. All I am saying is that Kamara should outperform what we have seen from him so far.
The veteran back has averaged only 6.9 over the last four games with a 63 Utilization Score. He remains the RB1 for the Saints with a 64% snap share, 63% rush share, and 9% target share.
His historical Utilization Score comparisons have averaged 11.8 points, with 72% finishing between RB19 and RB36.
RB1 to RB12 performers: 5%
RB13 to RB24 performers: 33%
RB25 to RB36 performers: 51%
RB37 to RB48 performers: 12%
New Orleans doesn't have any smash matchups on the schedule, but all of them are average to above-average for RBs:
Falcons: +0.6
Dolphins: +1.6
Buccaneers: +1.1
Panthers: +1.8
Jets: -0.8
Titans: +3.3
Again, this isn't an endorsement to overpay for Kamara. However, he could be a usable piece with some upside the rest of the way in deeper leagues.
Kamara is a high-end RB3 who could surprise us with mid-range RB2 value the rest of the way.
6. Utilization Score Trends
Trending Up
TreVeyon Henderson | RB | Patriots: Henderson has improved his Utilization Score by 16 points over the last four games. Over his last two outings, he has a score of 87 with 30.2 points per game. My view on his range of outcomes from last week remains the same—we don't know for sure what the coaching staff will do when he returns. However, even in a timeshare with Stevenson, the upcoming matchups against the Bengals, Giants, Bills, Ravens, and Jets are juicy. Henderson is an RB1 in games without Stevenson and a mid-range RB2 once he returns.
Nico Collins | WR | Texans: Collins has upped his Utilization Score by 11 points over the last month. It now sits at a 78 for the season with 15.1 PPG. He averages 8.8 targets and 107 air yards per contest. In the last two games with Davis Mills under center, Collins has the No. 1 Utilization Score for the position at 98 with 22.4 points per game. Collins is a low-end WR1 with mid-range WR1 upside.
George Kittle | TE | 49ers: Kittle has erupted over the last two games, improving his Utilization Score by 20 points to a 75 for the season. Over that span, he has averaged 24 points with a 95 Utilization Score, which is second to Trey McBride's 99. Kittle is the best passing game in San Fransico, and they have fed him a 24% target share. The veteran TE is a top-three option the rest of the way.
Trending Down
Zach Charbonnet | RB | Seahawks: Charbonnet's Utilization Score has dipped by four points over the last four outings. It now sits at a 50 for the season. Over that stretch, Kenneth Walker has taken a slight lead as the 1A. Charbonnet has a 43% snap share, 43% attempt share, and a 34% route participation rate with a 5% target share. He has also fallen behind in the high-leverage category of attempts inside the five-yard line at 38%. Charbonnet is a borderline RB3 with RB1 contingent upside should Walker miss any time.
Jordan Addison | WR | Vikings: Addison's Utilization Score now sits at a 69 after falling eight points over the last four contests. In his last three outings with McCarthy under center, Addison has averaged 5.7 targets and 107 air yards. His Utilization Score is 58 over that span. Similar to Jefferson, Addison has a chance to bounce back with a great schedule on the horizon, but McCarthy must turn things around. Addison is a boom-bust WR4.
Mason Taylor | TE | Jets: Taylor's Utilization Score has tumbled three points over the last three games to a 62. However, there could be larger problems on the horizon: the rookie's route participation has tumbled to 61% over the previous two games, while Jeremy Ruckert has become more involved. Taylor falls to low-end TE2 territory.
Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals: The veteran signal caller has averaged 314 yards and two touchdowns per game passing in five starts. Over that period, he is the QB4 in fantasy football with 21.1 points per game. Despite the absence of Marvin Harrison Jr., Brissett carved up the 49ers for an NFL record 47 completions in Week 11. He finished the day with 452 passing yards and two TDs. Brissett is riding a heater and is worthy of low-end QB1 consideration.He is available in 66% of Yahoo leagues.
RB
Emanuel Wilson | Packers: Josh Jacobs is week-to-week due to a knee injury that knocked him out of the Week 11 matchup against the Giants. After Jacobs exited the game on the second drive, Wilson handled 94% of the snaps and scored 13.9 fantasy points. Wilson is a mid-range RB2 with RB1 upside in games without Jacobs. He is available in 92% of leagues.
Sean Tucker | Buccaneers: Bucky Irving returned to practice in a limited fashion last week, but we don't have a definitive timeline on his return. Tucker has expanded his role over the last three games with rushing attempt shares of 41%, 43% and 59%. He has taken over the early-down work and is the more explosive option versus Rachaad White. White retained the passing-down duties, limiting Tucker to a 25% route participation rate in Week 11. Tucker is a high-end RB3 and an RB1 ceiling in games without Irving moving forward. The third-year back is available in 73% of leagues.
Kenneth Gainwell | Steelers: Jaylen Warren left the Week 11 game due to an ankle injury. Warren indicated he could have returned if needed, but we will have to monitor his status this week. After Warren left the game, Gainwell scored 16.6 points with a 69% snap share and 60% of the rushing attempts. The veteran back has the traits to boom in fantasy if ever thrust into a full-time role, thanks to a powerful receiving profile. He ranks third in TPRR at 24% behind only McCaffrey and Achane. In Week 4, he erupted for 31.4 points in a spot start with Warren out. Gainwell is a mid-range RB2 with RB1 upside in any contests without Warren. He is available in 68% of leagues.
Bhayshul Tuten | Jaguars: Tuten injured his ankle on the seventh drive. Prior to that, he had a 41% snap share and 44% rush share—season-high marks. If the rookie is healthy, we could see him in a larger role moving forward. Tuten upgrades to RB3 territory and offers RB1 contingency upside. He is available in 70% of leagues, but keep an eye on the injury report ahead of your waiver wire deadline.
Devin Singletary | Giants: Singletary continues to siphon almost half of the work in the Giants' backfield and might be the preferred option from inside the five-yard line. He handled three of four such attempts in Week 11. In three games since the loss of Cam Skattebo, Singletary has a 54 Utilization Score with a 45% snap share and 40% rush share. He has averaged 11.7 points over that stretch. The Giants' schedule is rough over the next three games with matchups against the Lions (-3.8 fantasy boost), Patriots (-4.7), and a bye. He won't be an easy start in those games unless you are in a deeper league. Singletary is a borderline RB3 and is available in 79% of leagues.
Chris Rodriguez | Commanders: Rodriguez was the lead back in a three-way committee in Week 11. He notched a 51 Utilization Score with 9.5 fantasy points. We could see Rodriguez as the Commanders' top option after their Week 12 bye, and the schedule is favorable. Still, it's hard to get too excited about a low-performing offense that also has QBs integrated into the run game. Rodriguez is a high-end RB4 option who is available in 88% of leagues.
Keaton Mitchell | Ravens: Justice Hill was out in Week 11, but Mitchell's takeover of the No. 2 ball carrier role occurred before that. In Weeks 9 and 10, he handled 15% and 13% of the attempts versus 4% and 3% for Hill. Mitchell is the most likely back on the Ravens to see a significant bump should Henry miss any time. The big-play back is a stash RB5 option. He is available in 97% of leagues.
WR
Alec Pierce | Colts: I have written a lot about Pierce over the last few weeks. The TLDR version: he is having a career year with a 20% target share. Pierce might have been dropped due to the Colts' bye week. He is a low-end WR3 and is available in 52% of leagues.
Christian Watson | Packers: Watson has averaged 11.9 points with a 60 Utilization Score over the past four games since returning from his 2024 late-season ACL injury. Over the last two games, he has reached an 80%-plus route share and recorded a season-high target share of 23% last weekend. In Week 11, he notched an 81 Utilization Score with 20.6 fantasy points. Watson is a boom-bust WR4 but could blossom into more with the Packers in need of someone to step up. He is available in 66% of leagues.
Michael Wilson | Cardinals: Wilson got the opportunity to operate as the WR1 in Week 11 with Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendectomy) out. He crushed, scoring 33.5 points with a 94 Utilization Score. He finished the day with 18 targets and a mouth-watering 231 air yards. On the one hand, we can't lose sight of Wilson's career to this point—he has had plenty of opportunities to flash before and has disappointed. On the other hand, Brissett is playing out of his mind, which has drastically improved the offense. Wilson upgrades to boom-bust WR4 territory and is available in 53% of Yahoo leagues.
Luther Burden III | Bears: Burden took over the WR3 role in Week 11. He notched season highs in route participation (61%) and target share (18%). Available in 92% of leagues. Chicago's second-round draft pick is a candidate to break out over the final weeks of the season, with DJ Moore also struggling. Burden upgrades to boom-bust WR4 status and is available in 92% of Yahoo leagues.
Chris Godwin | Buccaneers: Godwin returned to practice in a limited fashion last week but didn't suit up. Godwin is a WR4 option and is available in 54% of Yahoo leagues.
Darnell Mooney | Falcons: Drake London suffered a knee injury that will likely keep him out of Week 12 and possibly longer. Mooney hasn't done anything in the fantasy boxscore this year, but he notched 33% and 25% target shares in Weeks 10 and 11. Michael Penix Jr. also injured his knee and will miss at least four games. Kirk Cousins didn't look good in Week 11, but he had a strong rapport with Mooney in 2024. Mooney averaged 12.5 points with a 65 Utilization Score in 15 games with the veteran signal caller. Mooney upgrades to WR4 territory and offers WR3 potential. He is available in 69% of leagues.
TE
Juwan Johnson | Saints: With the subtraction of Rashid Shaheed and Tyler Shough showing signs of life, Johnson is back in play at the TE position. He has averaged 15.6 points with a 73 Utilization Score in two contests with Shough, including a 19.2-point outing in Week 10 without Shaheed. Johnson is a low-end TE1 with mid-range TE1 upside. He is available in 54% of leagues coming off a Week 11 bye.
Utilization Bytes Ahead Of Week 12
Running Back
Chase Brown | Bengals: Brown has accounted for 83% of snaps, 86% of attempts and garnered a 19% target share in two games without Samaje Perine. Over those two contests, he posted an elite 97 Utilization Score and 18.7 points per game. Brown is playing well and has a shot at holding onto a larger role even when Perine returns. The third-year back is a high-end RB1 without Perine and a mid-range RB2 when he returns.
Emari Demercado | Cardinals: Demercado suffered an ankle injury on the fifth drive. Before that, he was leading the team with a 50% snap share. Bam Knight scored 14.5 PPR points on the day, but it was Michael Carter who led the team in snaps after DeMercado's departure with a 70% share. Knight remains the early-down banger while Demercado and Carter are the passing-down options until Trey Benson returns.
Kareem Hunt | Chiefs: In two games without Isiah Pacheco, Hunt has delivered RB16 and RB19 finishes. Over that stretch, he has a 70 Utilization Score with an 82% snap share and 77% rush share. He has also led the team in route participation rate at 61%. Hunt is a low-end RB2 until Pacheco returns to action.
Kenneth Walker III | Seahawks: Walker remains embroiled in a two-headed attack, but he has taken a slight lead over Zach Charbonnet. In three games since the bye, Walker has led in snaps (48% vs 40%), attempts (42% vs 34%), route participation rate (43% vs 34%), and targets (8% vs 4%). Over that span, Walker has averaged 12.1 points with a 58 Utilization Score. Walker is a mid-range RB3.
Kimani Vidal | Chargers: Vidal suffered a thigh injury on the seventh drive and didn't return to the game. After he departed, Trayveon Williams handled 79% of the snaps. The Chargers have a bye in Week 11, and Omarion Hampton is nearing a return.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. | Giants: Tracy holds a slight lead over Singletary for the RB1 honors since the loss of Skattebo. In four games, he has a 61 Utilization Score with 10 points per game. He recorded a season-high 17.8 points in Week 11, but he remained in a split backfield, handling 52% of the snaps. Tracy's historical Utilization Score comps have averaged 11.5 points, with the majority (57%) finishing as RB3s. The Giants' schedule is difficult over the next three weeks, with matchups against two of the toughest fantasy RB defenses in the Lions (-3.8) and the Patriots (-4.7), followed by a bye. Tracy profiles as a high-end RB3.
Wide Receiver
Adonai Mitchell | Jets:Mitchell saw his first action of the season with New York and demanded a 25% target share. His historical problems securing the catch persisted, but he has big-play ability, and the Jets are switching to Tyrod Taylor. Mitchell is a deep-league WR5 stash option.
Drake London | Falcons: London suffered a knee injury and is week-to-week. He also lost his starting QB for at least four games. We will have to see what things look like when he returns, but London averaged 15.1 points in 15 contests with Cousins under center in 2024.
Jakobi Meyers | Jaguars: In his second game with Jacksonville, Meyers upped his route participation from 50% to 83%. He improved his targets from 16% to 30% to lead the team in Week 11. Meyers is the favorite to operate as the WR2 opposite of Brian Thomas Jr. when he returns, but there is some risk of a significant rotation with Parker Washington, Tim Patrick and Dyami Brown. Meyers is a borderline WR3 who could provide high-end WR3 upside if he secures a full-time role with Thomas back in the lineup.
Kyle Williams | Patriots: Was the Patriots' No. 3 WR in Week 11 against the Jets with Kayshon Boutte out. The rookie has only secured an 8% target share in two games without Boutte, but appears to be ahead of DeMario Douglas in the pecking order for playing time moving forward. Williams is a WR6 stash option in deep formats.
Pat Bryant | Broncos: Bryant held onto the WR3 role despite the return of Marvin Mims Jr. to the lineup. He collected a season-high 22% target share in Week 11 against the Chiefs. He also posted season-highs in Utilization Score (59) and fantasy points (13.2). Bryant is a WR5 stash.
Rashid Shaheed | Seahawks: Shaheed played the No. 3 WR role behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp with Tory Horton sidelined. Shaheed has the talent to emerge as the WR2 at some point in this offense, but remains behind Kupp and could rotate more with Horton when he returns. Shaheed is a WR5 stash.
Ricky Pearsall | 49ers: Pearsall returned to action against the Cardinals in Week 11 with an 82% route participation rate and 9% target share. The 49ers offense is more crowded with a healthy Kittle, but Pearsall should still see better days. He was a big-play merchant early in the season, and the team needs someone to create downfield opportunities. He has an average Utilization Score of 62 in four healthy games. His historical comps have averaged 11.9 points with the majority finishing between WR30 and WR42 (53%). If you want to give him a pass in his first game back, he had a 77 Utilization Score over the first three weeks. His comparisons in that scenario averaged 15.2 points with 52% finishing as WR2s. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle—Pearsall is a mid-range WR3 with upside.
Stefon Diggs | Patriots: Diggs recorded a season-high 89% route participation rate in Week 11 against the Jets. That led to his second-best Utilization Score of 88 and fantasy outing with 19.5 points. Despite a part-time role, he leads the Patriots with a 24% target share. He ranks 10th in TPRR (25%) in the NFL out of all WRs with at least 250 routes. Diggs remains a high-end WR3, but if this route participation sticks, he would quickly rise into high-end WR2 territory with Drake Maye playing at a high level.
Tight End
Colston Loveland | Bears: Was the TE2 behind Cole Kmet in Week 11. His route participation rates over the last two games with Kmet healthy are 56% and 58%. Over that span, he has a 56 Utilization Score with 8.3 PPG. Loveland remains a stash option if you have room on your roster, but shouldn't be in starting lineups. He is a low-end TE2.
Luke Musgrave | Packers: A three-way rotation emerged in Week 11. Musgrave's route participation rate fell to 33%. He has a 10% target share in two games without Tucker Kraft. Musgrave can be cut in all formats.
Travis Kelce | Chiefs: Kelce could be heating up just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Over the last four games with Rashee Rice back in the fold, Kelce has been the clear-cut No. 2 option in Kansas City with seven targets (21%) per game. Over that span, he has an 86 Utilization Score with 16.3 points per game. Kelce is a mid-range TE1 with upside.
Redzone Drive Rate vs. Touchdowns Drive Rate: Percentage of drives that reach the red zone versus how often the team is scoring a touchdown per drive. Large deltas indicate room for positive or negative regression.
Cardinals: 14% (37% vs. 24%)
Chiefs: 13% (45% vs. 32%)
Panthers: 12% (32% vs. 20%)
Saints: 12% (26% vs. 14%)
Packers: 11% (40% vs.29%)
Jaguars: 11% (35% vs. 23%)
Chargers: 11% (33% vs. 22%)
Dropback Over Expected (DBOE): How often teams pass the ball compared to their peers when considering the score differential over the last five weeks:
Chiefs: 8%
Colts: 6%
Bengals: 6%
Texans: 5%
Raiders: 4% (Pre MNF) ——
Seahawks: -7%
Eagles: -7%
Dolphins: -8%
Jets: -8%
Ravens: -9%
Commanders: -10%
Other notable DBOE trends:
Bears: -4% DBOE in six games since their bye week
Cardinals: 3% DBOE in five games with Jacoby Brissett as the starter
Titans: 3% DBOE in four games under Mike McCoy
Vikings: 4% DBOE in three games since J.J. McCarthy's return
Lions: 6% DBOE in two games with Dan Campbell calling plays
Saints: -10% DBOE in two games with Tyler Shough as the starter
Commanders: -13% DBOE in the last two games with Marcus Mariota as the starter
Giants: -17% DBOE in one game under Mike Kafka
Neutral Playclock: Teams that are leaving more or less time on the playclock when the score is within three points (neutral situations) over the last five weeks. The NFL average is 8.3 seconds.
Cowboys: 13.5 (Pre MNF)
Bengals: 10.7
Saints: 10.1
Ravens: 10.0 ——
Vikings: 6.3
Buccaneers: 4.5
Cardinals: 4.0
Play action pass rate: Teams that are utilizing play action the most per dropback over the last five weeks, which adds value to WRs and TEs on a per-route basis in fantasy:
Rams: 47%
Bears: 35%
Colts: 32%
Ravens: 31%
Dolphins: 31%
Commanders: 31%
Lions: 29%
Seahawks: 29% ——
49ers: 19%
Saints: 18%
Falcons: 17%
Bengals: 15%
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