
Dwain McFarland breaks down the biggest usage and utilization notes from Week 13 and how fantasy football managers should adjust ahead of a critical Week 14.

Welcome to the Utilization Report, where Dwain McFarland highlights his top fantasy football takeaways heading into Week 14.
Let's follow the data to identify the top waiver wire options, trade targets, upgrades, and downgrades based on what we learned in Week 13.
Note: as you read through the Utilization Report, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.
Tampa Bay is fighting for a playoff birth with a 58% probability of getting in, per NFL.com. That makes the Bucs a highly motivated team with a favorable schedule, facing the Raiders, Chargers, Cowboys, and Panthers over the final four games of the fantasy season.
Mayfield stumbled against the Panthers in Week 13, registering only 11.2 fantasy points, but he still ranks seventh in passing yards (253) and third in touchdowns (2.1) per game. The seventh-year veteran is on pace to register career-highs in completion percentage (71%) and passer rating (101.3), with his highest yards per attempt (YPA) mark since his rookie campaign.
Mayfield is the QB5 with 20.4 fantasy points per game, and with Mike Evans back in the fold and a soft schedule outside of the Chargers, he is positioned perfectly for the fantasy playoffs.
Mayfield is a top-five quarterback the rest of the way.
Since their Week 11 bye, the Buccaneers have made a conscious effort to give Irving more opportunities. Over the last two games, he has an 8.1 Utilization Score, leading the backfield in snaps, rushing attempts, and target share.

It is hard to imagine this trend reversing, considering how Irving has rewarded the team with 240 rushing yards, two rushing TDs, and 97 receiving yards. The rookie has averaged 6.5 yards per carry, with 5.1 per carry coming after contact.
Rachaad White continues to see playing time, keeping Irving from ascending to every-down status, but the rookie doesn't need a full-time workload to provide high-end fantasy production. His historical comps have reached RB1 status 58% of the time.
Irving UPGRADES to borderline RB1 status and offers high-end RB1 upside.
Tampa was cautious with Evans in Week 12, restricting him to a 66% route participation, but they removed the governor in Week 13. Evans registered his second-highest mark of the season at 90% and dominated with a 35% target share on his way to 25.8 fantasy points.
Over the last two contests, Evans leads the team with an 8.7 Utilization Score—he has a whopping 32% targets per route run (TPRR).

Evans delivered a top-10 fantasy campaign last year with Mayfield, averaging 16.6 points per game. This year, his average in games with a 70% route participation or higher is 17.7. His historical comps averaged 17.5, with 38% notching a top-six finish.
Evans UPGRADES to mid-range WR1 territory the rest of the way.
Brock Bowers gets most of the headlines in Las Vegas, but what Meyers has done in seven games without Davante Adams is also impressive.
Over that stretch, Meyers has posted a top-24 finish in five of seven contests, averaging 15.1 fantasy points. His Utilization Score comps fared slightly better than that, with 15.9, and WRs of his caliber have demonstrated WR1 upside.
Meyers has been a solid WR2 since Adams's departure, but there is room for more if Aidan O'Connell can build on his 340-yard performance against the Chiefs. Almost half of Meyers's comps delivered WR1 finishes, but the majority received quality quarterback play.
Meyers has one of the best schedules in fantasy over the next four games. Every opponent ranks in the top 10 in fantasy boost allowed to the WR position.
Meyers UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 territory and offers low-end WR1 upside.
Williams has notched QB4 and QB3 finishes over the last two games with 24.9 and 26.1 fantasy points. However, we have seen this act before. We thought Williams had arrived in Weeks 5 and 6 thanks to QB6 and QB1 finishes with 23.6 and 29.6 points. He averaged 8.5 points over the next three games, failing to register a top-24 QB finish.
Williams has demonstrated a high-end QB1 upside four times this season, but we must remember his seven low-end QB2 outings when setting our lineups.
Williams is a boom-bust mid-range QB2.
Moore has delivered WR4 (24.9 points) and WR5 (23.7) finishes with Williams running red-hot over the last two games. Williams leads the team with a 6.9 Utilization Score and is second in target share (25%).
When considering his outlook the rest of the way, we must remember his rookie quarterback's Jekyll and Hyde nature. Over the last four years, most of his Utilization Score comps have finished between high-end WR2 and mid-range WR3 status, but there are also some cautionary WR4 finishes.
Moore UPGRADES to mid-range WR3 territory but offers high-end WR2 upside if Williams can keep up his recent performance.
Allen picked up a heel injury in training camp that he reaggravated in Week 1, which caused him to sit out until Week 4. However, the 32-year-old wide receiver has looked healthy since the Week 7 bye, leading the team with a 7.3 Utilization Score.

Ultimately, Williams's play has held Allen's fantasy production in check over this six-game span. However, Allen has been the most consistent Bears receiver since the bye, and his Utilization Score comps fared slightly better than Moore's.
Allen and Moore's comp groups each had 46% of the WRs finish in WR2 territory, but Allen's group had a higher ceiling, with 16% managing a WR1 finish. This feels counterintuitive given Moore's play-making ability and age advantage over Allen, but the Bears' eldest WR has averaged an additional target and 34 more air yards per game since the bye.
Allen UPGRADES to borderline WR2 status and offers WR1 upside if Williams stays hot.
Kareem Hunt held onto the backfield lead in Pacheco's first action since Week 4, but the split was close. Pacheco tied Hunt with 47% of the rushing attempts and trailed in snap share by only seven percentage points.

It is challenging to decipher what this means moving forward, but Pacheco could regain the lead role as soon as Week 14 against the Chargers.
Pacheco UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 status and Hunt DOWNGRADES to low-end RB3 territory.
This section will highlight some of the biggest Utilization Score movers over the last four games each week.
Note: Sometimes, the players are the same as the previous week, and in those cases, I might highlight a different player to cover more players. Be sure to check out last week's risers and fallers.
A few players pop up weekly in the fantasy boxscore but lack the underlying goods to back them up. They are best left for the next fantasy manager to worry about.
Donnie Brasco: "You should give it to somebody who doesn't know any better because that's a fugazi."
If you have been holding your FAAB dollars to the end, now is your moment. Guerendo pulled Triple 7s on the injury slot machine this weekend with Christian McCaffrey (PCL) and Jordan Mason (high-ankle) heading to injured reserve. McCaffrey is likely out for the regular season and Mason will miss at least four games, leaving Guerendo as the new RB1 in San Francisco.
We have only seen Guerendo in a full-time role one time this season when he delivered 19.2 fantasy points in Week 8 with an 8.6 Utilization Score. Guerendo handled 66% of the snaps and 47% of the rushing attempts that week with Patrick Taylor and Deebo Samuel acting as the RB2 and RB3 options.
Guerendo UPGRADES to low-end RB2 territory and could quickly climb to RB1 status. The rookie is a MUST-ADD—don't be afraid to block your local CMC manager if they are in the playoff hunt!
Bonus: Patrick Taylor UPGRADES to RB5 stash status in deep leagues.
With Gabriel Davis on IR, Washington stepped into a starting role and delivered 22.3 fantasy points. The second-year sixth-round NFL Draft pick led the team in targets (29%) and notched a 9.7 Utilization Score.
Trevor Lawrence suffered a concussion, and the Jaguars could shut down their starting signal caller. Jacksonville's playoff chances are now less than 1%. Lawrence was already battling a non-throwing shoulder injury, and it would make sense for the team to turn their attention to 2025, leaving Mac Jones as the starter.
Washington's high-end Week 13 production makes him worth adding in deeper leagues—especially if you are bye-week challenged. However, the quarterback situation, a below-average schedule, and target competition from Brian Thomas and Evan Engram make a late-season explosion unlikely.
Washington UPGRADES to mid-range WR4 territory.
Westbrook-Ikhine has found his way into the fugazi section of this article over the last three weeks. His eight touchdowns on 20 receptions are due for massive regression. However, the 27-year-old has improved his Utilization Score by 1.3 points over the last month and has a 6.2 mark since taking over a starting role. Over that stretch, he has an 18% target share, eclipsing 20% in three of six starts.
Most of NWI's comps have finished as a WR4 or lower (62%), but 28% notched a WR3 campaign, and 10% managed a WR2 season. With matchups against the Jaguars, Bengals, Colts, and Jaguars, Westbrook-Ikhine has a shot at making noise down the stretch, even if his touchdowns regress.
Westbrook-Ikhine UPGRADES to boom-bust WR4 territory.
Taysom Hill is out for the season, leaving the Saints without many pass-catching options. With Hill injured, Johnson collected a season-highs in multiple utilization categories.
Johnson UPGRADES to mid-range TE2 territory and offers low-end TE1 upside if his route participation holds.
O'Connell stepped into the lineup against a tough Chiefs pass defense and tossed the rock around the yard for 340 yards and two touchdowns. While throwing for over 300 yards every week isn't something we should expect, the second-year QB has reached 270 yards or higher in 25% of games where he played 90% of the snaps.
Over the next three games, he will face the Buccaneers, Falcons, and Jaguars—one of the better schedules over that stretch.
O'Connell is a low-end QB2 but offers low-end QB1 upside in Week 14 against the Bucs if you have bye-week challenges.
These players aren't available in sicko leagues (I feel ya), but believe it or not, most of the Milky Way galaxy doesn't play in a sicko league. If available, please allow us sicko-leaguers to live vicariously through you and prioritize these options off the waiver wire.
Wilson has averaged 271 yards per game and has eclipsed 260 yards in four of six starts. He has averaged 18.4 fantasy points with only one dud in Week 11 (7.3 points) while finishing inside the top 10 three times.
Wilson is a high-end QB2 who offers high-end QB1 upside for those with bye week challenges.
See Utilization Score Risers.
If you play in a sicko league, here are some names that are more likely to be available. They should not be sitting on the wire due to potential value in the future, but they likely won't be helping your fantasy squad next weekend.
With J.K. Dobbins out for at least the next three games, Vidal is the RB2 behind Gus Edwards for the Chargers. Vidal registered a 27% target share and handled 24% of the rushing attempts in Week 13.
Gus Edwards ranks 51 out of 57 backs in yards per carry (3.4) and is 55th in missed tackles forced per attempt (7%), which leaves the door open for Vidal to earn a more significant role. He is the more natural pass-catcher out of the backfield, and his fresh young legs could add more pop to the ground attack.
Vidal is an RB5 with a path to RB2 upside and should be stashed in deep leagues.
Corum notched season-highs in snaps (33%), attempts (28%) and routes (23%) in Week 13 against the Saints. The rookie offers little stand-alone value at the moment, but that could change if the Rams continue to give him more opportunities. If something happened to Kyren Williams, Corum would offer RB1 upside.
Corum is a high-end RB5 stash play with RB1 upside if Williams goes down.
P.S. Remember to revisit last week's stash plays for additional options that could still be on your waiver wire.