Shit happens in fantasy football land. Whether it's another manager deciding they need the exact player you were hoping would fall just one more spot, or irrational roster construction ruining your carefully crafted strategy: The only certainty during any given fantasy draft is the general uncertainty surrounding what the hell everyone is going to do.

While this inherent randomness can be tilting at times, it also makes fantasy football a lot of fun — particularly when we can use it to our advantage.

Enter: Tier-based drafting. This is essentially the practice of asking yourself "What can I get now that I can't get later" before every pick and acting accordingly. This practice certainly goes hand in hand with fantasy football rankings and general draft strategy; just realize leaning on tiers is really useful when attempting to discern whether or not you have the luxury of waiting on the position in question, or if the time to act is meow.

Today's goal: TE tiers with superlatives to highlight some of the biggest questions facing the involved signal-callers. The TEs are listed in order of my personal rankings inside the tiers and are followed by some superlative-themed write-ups. Check out my team preview series for full thoughts on every team's TE room.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

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Tier 1: Potential fantasy football cheat codes (3)

Every now and then a single TE puts up the sort of production that essentially makes them unfair in fantasy land. Opposing fantasy managers shudder in fear when they see the disparity in projected points between their waiver wire fill-in and your consensus TE1. This year three players at the position tentatively seem to have this sort of upside in their potential range of outcomes…

• Chiefs TE Travis Kelce: Has led all TEs in PPR points per game in five of the last six seasons and remains the projected target leader for the NFL's best QB. Thirty-five in October, Father Time will be here eventually, but it's worth wondering if career-low marks in yards per reception (10.6) and yards per target (8.1) last season were more due to early-season knee (Sept. 5) and ankle (Oct. 8) injuries than anything.
• Lions TE Sam LaPorta: Rookie-year average of 14.1 PPR points per game was higher than anyone other than Mike Ditka (16.7) in NFL history. Pretty, pretty, pretty good.
• Ravens TE Mark Andrews: Has posted TE5, TE4, TE1, TE3 and TE5 finishes in PPR points per game since 2019. No TE earned a better "Open score" than Andrews last season, and the longtime stud's average of 4.8 yards after the catch per reception was his highest mark since his rookie season. There's little reason to believe Andrews is poised to suffer a falloff in physical ability ahead of 2024.

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Most likely to unseat Taylor Swift's boyfriend as THE TE1: Sam LaPorta

All LaPorta did as a rookie was put forward one of the position's best year-one performances … ever.

Overall, the rookie TE somehow managed to out-score Travis Kelce in raw PPR points (225.4 vs. 219.4) over the first 17 weeks of the season. Yes, LaPorta benefited from playing an extra game. Also yes, he out-scored Travis f*cking Kelce!

Reminder: Kelce finished with the position’s most total PPR points in six of seven years coming into 2023. Mark Andrews … and now LaPorta are quite literally the only other TEs who have managed to lead the position in fantasy points since 2015. Not a bad debut!

Sixth in yards per route run (1.76) and third in passer rating when targeted (111.9) among 24 TEs with at least 50 targets last season: Good things happened when LaPorta was on the field last season, and he accordingly was fed a target on a whopping 23.3% of his routes — the position's third-highest mark behind only Trey McBride and T.J. Hockenson.

Current Fantasy Life Projections only have McBride (120) and Kelce (113) seeing more total pass-game opportunities than LaPorta (112). Throw in the Lions' cozy offensive environment and potential for LaPorta to, you know, get better during his second year in the NFL, and it's hard to argue with those who want to crown him as this year's overall TE1.

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Tier 2: Overall TE1 upside (4)

There is at least one factor seemingly standing in the way of this group finishing as top-three producers at the position, but then again it certainly seems possible that a HUGE campaign could be imminent if things break their way. These are the last of the "elite" TE options …

• Bills TE Dalton Kincaid: Yes, Kincaid's targets per game with Dawson Knox healthy (7.4) were a far cry from what he pulled off in five games without (5.0). Also yes, Kincaid ran 41 routes without Stefon Diggs on the field (essentially one game) as a rookie and caught nine of 12 targets for 139 yards (per CBS Fantasy's Jacob Gibbs). The (small sample) target share numbers are borderline erotic, and he's accordingly projected to lead the team in targets.
• Falcons TE Kyle Pitts: Mediocre QB performance, health and the presence of Jonnu Smith all helped lead to Pitts busting in 2023, but suddenly it looks like each of those concerns have been mitigated ahead of 2024.
• Cardinals TE Trey McBride: Only George Kittle (2.22) averaged more yards per route run than McBride (2.03) last season, and nobody managed to earn a target on a higher percentage of their routes (25.9%). While the presence of Marvin Harrison Jr. and (to a lesser extent) third-round rookie Tip Reiman are at least somewhat concerning for McBride's target volume, friends don't let friends fully fade young, talented TEs who have already demonstrated the ability to post high-end production.
• 49ers TE George Kittle: Has posted top-six numbers on a per-game basis in each of the past six seasons. Thirty-two in October, this is around the time that TEs drop off a bit in fantasy land, although the position does age better than most. Ultimately, the only reason why Kittle isn't ranked higher is a lack of target upside: Totals of 94, 86 and 90 over the past three seasons have prevented him from re-reaching his early-career BOOMS, and he had a whopping 11 games with five or fewer targets in 2023 (including postseason).

Most likely to *finally* break out in a meaningful way: Kyle Pitts

Most advanced metrics would indicate that Jonnu Smith was better than Kyle Pitts last season. Of course, the caveat is that Pitts didn't ever seem to be fully healthy. Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot confirmed this in the offseason, who said Pitts "fought through" a lingering knee injury throughout 2023. Believed to be just an MCL issue, Pitts also had surgery on his PCL last offseason — there's reason to believe he will be far closer to 100% in 2024.

A look at Pitts' per-route efficiency and ability after the catch by season certainly seems to agree with the idea that we simply didn't see his best self last year.

Pitts yards per route run and yards after the catch per reception by year:

• 2023: 1.43 yards per route run, 2.5 YAC per reception
• 2022: 1.69, 4.8
• 2021: 2.02, 4.7

We need to be careful about overly making excuses here. Some examples of just how rough the Pitts experience has been over the years:

• Pitts has the worst targeted passer rating among 35 qualified TEs since 2021.
• Jimmy Graham (7) has more TDs than Pitts (6) since 2021.
• Zach Ertz has just one less missed tackle forced (4) than Pitts (5) on seven fewer receptions over the past two seasons.

Not good … but then again we are talking about someone who is still just 23 years old and already has a 1,000-yard campaign under their belt. Look, 6-foot-6, 245-pound beasts with sub-4.5 speed and the upside for triple-digit targets don't exactly fall off trees.

Ultimately, that latter point is probably the most important one. Pitts is one of just seven TEs that Fantasy Life projects for over 100 targets in 2024, meaning he'll need to continue posting poor efficiency and scoring numbers in order to not meet reasonable (for him) TE6, pick 61 ADP.

It sure seems like each of Pitts' 2023 downfalls in terms of injury, bad QB performance and legit target competition at TE have all been rectified. This doesn't make a year-four breakout guaranteed, but it's certainly easier to see his path to high-end success after a largely perfect offseason.

Tier 3: Really good at football with a solid target ceiling (4)

None of these players are expected to work as the No. 1 pass-game option in their offense, but that doesn't mean big-time numbers won't be on the horizon. Whether it's the potential to breeze past triple-digit targets or benefit as a secondary option in an elite offense: These TEs have far more outs to success than most players at the position…

• Jaguars TE Evan Engram: Doug Pederson knows a thing or two about producing high-end fantasy TEs, although Engram's half PPR points per game with Christian Kirk (7.7, 11 games) paled in comparison to what he managed without Kirk (15.5, 5 games) last season. Essentially a low-aDOT WR in this offense, it'd make sense if the Jaguars actively look to get their WRs more involved than last year, but then again Engram's 143 targets from 2023 leaves quite a bit of cushion.
• Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson: Seamlessly took over for Dalton Schultz and looks a lot like this offense's No. 2 pass-game option considering the lack of weaponry outside of CeeDee Lamb.
• Browns TE David Njoku: Averaged a mere 0.12 fewer PPR points per game than George Kittle last season on his way to working as the TE7. The problem is that Njoku's low-aDOT, checkdown role has yielded far better results without Deshaun Watson (13.2 PPR points per game, 7.6 targets) than with (8.9, 5.4) over the past two seasons. Still, triple-digit target upside is on the table for the YAC beast.
• Eagles TE Dallas Goedert: TE8, TE5 and TE12 in PPR points per game over the past three seasons; the biggest problem has been health, as Goedert has played "just" 15, 12 and 14 regular season games since 2021. Still, the associated borderline TE1 ADP makes the 29-year-old veteran a good example of someone priced closer to their floor than ceiling — make a habit of buying into an Eagles offense expected to operate with more pace and pre-snap motion in 2024.

Most likely to benefit from a fairly wide-open passing game: Jake Ferguson

Ferguson burst on the scene in his first full-time season as a starter in 2023, posting a season-long 71-761-5 receiving line and a huge 10-93-3 performance in the Cowboys' embarrassing Wild Card loss to the Packers.

The reigning TE10 in PPR points per game, Ferguson finished as the TE8 if we include every player's playoff production. Of course, he wasn't exactly among the position's most efficient pass-catchers on his way to getting there:

Ferguson among 27 TEs with 50-plus targets in 2023 (including playoffs):

• PFF receiving grade: 76.7 (No. 8)
• Yards per route run: 1.49 (No. 14)
• Yards per reception: 10.5 (No. 9)
• Targets per route run: 18.9% (No. 13)
• Passer rating when targeted: 118.4 (No. 3)

A lot of those marks are similar to what ex-Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz managed with the Texans. There were some awesome moments — particularly Ferguson's alpha-ness against the Seahawks — but it's also tough to call the rising third-year talent a true difference-maker at the position in the same mold as guys like Sam LaPorta and Mark Andrews.

That said: Ferguson's pristine offensive environment and triple-digit target upside help create a tantalizing fantasy profile even if his real-life skills are more "good" than great. This combination paints a typical low-end TE1 case in a similar vein as guys like David Njoku, Dallas Goedert and Dalton Schultz.

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Tier 4: Wouldn't be shocking to see a top-10 finish (3)

The red flag with this group is brighter than the higher-ranked options at the position. Then again, we're still dealing with the sort of high-end talents capable of racking up fantasy points in a hurry. Don't color us shocked if these players find a way to boom more often than they bust in 2024…

• Raiders TE Brock Bowers: Led all Power 5 TEs in PFF receiving grade (94.1), passer rating when targeted (148.9), receiving yards (2,541), receiving TDs (26) and yards per route run (2.64) during his three seasons at Georgia. Nobody is debating Bowers is really good at football, but the target competition is high in the form of both Davante Adams and fellow (good) TE Michael Mayer inside of an offense possibly dealing with the worst QB situation in football.
• Texans TE Dalton Schultz: Went from 6.3 targets per game to just 4.9 when the Texans offense was fully healthy. The difference in PPR points per game (10.6 vs. 9.5) wasn't too drastic, but it was enough to reflect the difference between a borderline TE1 and someone who needs to be in fantasy lineups even if there's a fire. Of course, the Texans now have 36 million reasons to keep Schultz heavily involved on a weekly basis.
• Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth: 25-year-old talent struggled to build on his promising first two seasons in 2023, but perhaps a new scheme and relatively better QB room could bring out the best of the former second-round pick.

Most likely to emerge as THE late-round TE of 2024: Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth is the new frontrunner to be in Arthur Smith's "Kyle Pitts" role. Reading that sentence likely sent a shiver down your spine, but it's worth noting Pitts earned the position's 10th-most targets per game (5.9) from 2021 to 2023. Only Mark Andrews had more total air yards than Pitts during that span.

I'm more inclined to believe Pitts' lack of production to start his career has been more of a QB/health problem than a complete indictment that Arthur is an imbecile. Apologies to your fantasy teams, but Jonnu Smith was objectively more efficient with his opportunities in 2023. Was Jonnu often given more YAC-friendly targets? Yes, but maybe that was actually a decent idea considering, you know, Pitts has forced exactly *one* more missed tackle than Zach f*cking Ertz over the past two seasons?

OK, sorry, got carried away there. This is supposed to be about Freiermuth. ANYWAY: The former second-round pick doesn't turn 26 until October and deserves credit for working as fantasy's TE10 in PPR points per game during the first two seasons of his career. Obviously, last season's 32-308-2 performance wasn't exactly a step in the right direction, but suffering Week 1 chest and Week 4 hamstring injuries didn't exactly set him up for success, either.

Look, Freiermuth doesn't deserve to be a top-10 option at the position ahead of 2024, but that doesn't mean the following three factors aren't working in his favor:

• The Steelers QB room is in a better place this year than last.
• There are 143 vacated targets (10th most) in this offense primarily from the Dionate Johnson and Allen Robinson departures.
• 2023 third-round pick Darnell Washington earned a whopping 10 targets last season and was used as a blocker on 72% of his snaps. It'd be VERY surprising to see any of Connor Heyward, MyCole Pruitt or Rodney Williams earn any level of meaningful route participation.

Tier 5: Wild Cards (4)

It's like that episode of “Always Sunny” when Charlie embraces his status as the group's wild card. Of course, sometimes that means bringing unexpected fun vibes to an otherwise meh situation, and other times that means cutting the breaks of a moving car without telling anyone. There's a reason why these guys are as cheap as they are, even if their best-case upside can't be ignored…

• Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson: Both Dr. Jesse Morse and Dr. Jeff Mueller believe Hockenson could miss half of the 2024 season with an overall performance dip until 2025. Ninety percent of Hockenson would still be better than most TEs — he and Travis Kelce were the top two players at the position in PPR points per game last season, after all — but the playing time uncertainty combined with the potential dropoff of the passing game makes him a VERY risky pick anywhere near the position’s top-12 options.
• Seahawks TE Noah Fant: The former first-round pick hasn't lived up to expectations … yet. A new contract and scheme are complemented by 2023 competition Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson taking their talents elsewhere in free agency.
• Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith: Smith’s fantasy ceiling isn’t all that high considering Dolphins TEs rank dead last in total targets (120) since Mike McDaniel got to town back in 2022, but it'd make sense if the reigning No. 3 TE in yards per target (8.3) manages to make the most out of his opportunities. Responsible for the two fastest ball carrier speeds from a TE in 2023 (Next-gen Stats), Smith adds ANOTHER speedy element to what was already the fastest offense in the NFL.
• Saints TE Taysom Hill: The goal-line rushing role has helped the Saints' professional vulture produce three performances with 20-plus PPR points per game over the past two seasons — tied for the eighth-most at the position. Things bend even stronger to Hill's favor in non-PPR leagues where his rushing prowess really stands out; he fits in as a boom-or-bust mid-range TE2 whose booms are admittedly bigger than what most are capable of at the position.

Most likely to break out as Iowa's next great NFL TE: Noah Fant

Poor QB play in Denver and a lack of true high-end target share in Seattle have prevented Fant from ever making a huge difference in Fantasy Land. The former 20th overall selection hasn’t been bad from an efficiency standpoint, although he's never managed to really stand out in a Seahawks offense with plenty of additional high-end avenues to go with the football:

Fant among 27 TEs with 100-plus targets in 2022-23

• PFF receiving grade: 68.0 (No. 18)
• Passer rating when targeted: 111.1 (No. 5)
• Yards per target: 8.5 (No. 4)
• Yards per reception: 11 (No. 10)
• Yards after the catch per reception: 5 (No. 11)
• Yards per route run: 1.34 (No. 18)
• Targets per route run: 15.7% (No. 23)

The yards per target number is especially intriguing: Only George Kittle, Travis Kelce and Dallas Goedert have managed to best Fant over the past two seasons.

The big question ahead of 2024: Will the Seahawks continue to rotate their TEs under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb? 2023 contributors Will Dissly (Chargers) and Colby Parkinson (Rams) are both out of the picture, leaving Fant as the last man standing in this Geno Smith-led (for now) passing attack.

Ultimately, the money (two-year, $21 million extension) bodes well for Fant's chances of seeing a larger role than in past years. TEs generally take longer than other positions to boom in fantasy land. Fant has been one of my favorite LATE-round upside options at the position this offseason; he'll be on the cover of Week 2 waiver wire articles should something close to a true full-time role emerge inside this suddenly barren TE room.

Tier 6: Spike weeks are on the table (7)

A full-time role is far from guaranteed here, and the offense may or may not be, you know, good at football. Still, these players have produced in the past to varying extents when given the opportunity, and there will likely be situations when they're called upon to do just that in 2024. If only we could figure out when those good weeks might be on the horizon…

• Packers TE Luke Musgrave: Would rise up the ranks in a hurry if teammate Tucker Kraft (pec) is slow to return and/or doesn't carry the same sort of weekly role as we saw down the stretch of 2023. Musgrave (7.4-yard aDOT) was used more downfield than Kraft (4.9), who was leaned on far more as a run blocker (50 snaps vs. 12) during the team's final two games of the season.
• Bears TE Cole Kmet: The reigning TE9 in PPR points per game suddenly looks like the clear-cut No. 4 pass-game option — at best — inside this ascending passing attack.
• Patriots TE Hunter Henry: New three-year, $27 million extension solidifies Henry as the No. 1 TE in New England, although the newfound presence of both OC Alex Van Pelt and Austin Hooper could produce an annoying committee. Henry will probably need to dominate red zone looks in order to boom in this likely low-level NFL passing game.
• Buccaneers TE Cade Otton: Posted a snap rate north of 91% in each and every game, yet somehow still finished as just the TE24 in PPR points per game. There isn't much willingness to feature him in the red zone: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin combined for 31 end-zone targets last season, while Otton had just eight. Still, it's rare to find true every-down options like this available so late in drafts.
• Saints TE Juwan Johnson: Has flashed legit high-end receiving upside but hasn't been given consistent full-time roles in an offense that was content to keep guys like Taysom Hill, Foster Moreau and even Jimmy Graham also involved last season. The absence of the latter Saints legend could lead to a few extra red zone targets in 2024; just realize this continues to profile as a committee situation, especially if Johnson is slow to recover from offseason foot surgery.
• Bengals TE Mike Gesicki: Has earned some training camp hype but enters an offense that ranks 31st, 27th and 20th in expected PPR points per game to the position over the past three seasons. A committee seems likely; the No. 1 TE in Cincy has earned just 63, 68 and 50 targets inside of this WR-centered passing game since 2021.
• Ravens TE Isaiah Likely: Turned in PPR TE3, TE5, TE21, TE3 and TE9 performances during the final five weeks of 2023. Still, Mark Andrews ran a route on an elite 85% of the Ravens' dropbacks last season — Baltimore continues to have 56 million reasons to feature their regular No. 1 pass-game option whenever he's healthy enough to suit up, even if the handcuff upside here remains elite.

Most likely to see fewer opportunities in a new scheme: Cole Kmet

Kmet is still somehow just 25 years old despite already having several solid enough fantasy seasons under his belt:

• 2020: 28 receptions-243 yards-2 TD, TE46 in PPR points per game
• 2021: 60-612-0, TE21
• 2022: 50-544-7, TE16
• 2023: 73-719-6, TE9

There have even been some spectacular plays along the way! Kmet is by most accounts an above-average NFL TE, but sadly for his fantasy managers: His days of working as the Bears' clear-cut No. 1 option at the position could be coming to an end.

Yes, Gerald Everett never managed to quite take over TE rooms with the Rams, Seahawks or Chargers over the years. Also yes, he does possess the sort of high-end YAC ability that simply isn't a part of Kmet's game, and the soon-to-be 30-year-old veteran is now reunited with former Rams passing game coordinator and more recently Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.

Let's take a look at the target discrepancy between Waldron's top-two TEs over the years:

• 2017 (Rams): Tyler Higbee (45 targets), Everett (32)
• 2018 (Rams): Everett (50), Higbee (34)
• 2019 (Rams): Higbee (89), Everett (60)
• 2020 (Rams): Everett (62), Higbee (60)
• 2021 (Seahawks): Everett (63), Will Dissly (26)
• 2022 (Seahawks): Noah Fant (63), Dissly (38)
• 2023 (Seahawks): Fant (43), Colby Parkinson (34)

An optimist could try to point to the 2019 season as evidence that Kmet still has a decent target ceiling, but expecting Bears TEs to combine for nearly 150 targets this season feels like wishful thinking considering the firepower they possess at WR.

I tend to agree with Fantasy Life Projections: Kmet is certainly the leader here (63 targets), but Everett (24) should be involved enough to cap the ceiling of both in fantasy land, even if the passing game as a whole is quite good.

Tier 7: You could imagine (5)

Whether it's an athletically gifted youngster or veteran who could benefit from a potential full-time role in an above-average passing game: There's a pathway to success here, although it's far from a given that these fantasy pipe dreams will come to fruition…

• Colts TE Jelani Woods: Colts TEs earned a whopping 31.6% of Anthony Richardson's target share compared to just 19% of Gardner Minshew's pass-game opportunities. The athletic profile here is absurd, although that was also true in 2022, and Woods surpassed a 50% route rate on just three occasions all season. An annoying multi-TE committee remains the most likely outcome here, but you could imagine what it'd be like if Woods runs away with the job.
• Titans TE Chigoziem Okonkwo: Chiggy was a popular late-round TE last season after making more than a few big plays as a rookie while putting up truly elite efficiency numbers. Unfortunately, the latter metrics crashed back to reality last year, and now the Titans are fully expected to utilize more of a committee at the position. Not great, even if Okonkwo still profiles as the lead receiver of the group.
• Jets TE Tyler Conklin: Conklin has exactly 87 targets in three straight years, which is honestly impressive. Of course, TE18, TE21 and most recently TE21 finishes in PPR points per game haven't been ideal. Conklin ranks just 30th among 36 qualified TEs in ESPN's receiver rating during this span — we aren't exactly dealing with a high-end talent at the position here, even if the (massive) QB upgrade provides hope for the late-round sleeper.
• Broncos TE Greg Dulcich: Healthy at the moment *ferociously knocks on wood*, maybe Dulcich is ready to rectify Sean Payton's statement that he would work as the offense’s “joker” in a similar manner as guys like Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles and Alvin Kamara. Still, only the Dolphins (49) targeted their TEs less than the Broncos (60) last season; there remains a scary-low floor here.
• Commanders TE Zach Ertz: 34 in November and hasn't broke a tackle since 'Nam. Then again, familiarity is a helluva drug in the NFL world.

Most likely to block the progress of the offense's shiny new rookie: Zach Ertz

Ertz signed a one-year, $5 million deal in Washington despite looking all kinds of washed over the past two seasons. Consider: 125 players have received at least 100 targets over the past two seasons, and Ertz's average of 5.3 yards per target ranks 121st as well as dead last among all TEs.

And yet, the 33-year-old veteran profiles as this offense's lead TE based on his history with Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona. Overall, Ertz received at least 10 targets in nine of his 28 games with the Cardinals — more than anyone other than Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson during this span even though Ertz has missed a full 17 games over the past two seasons.

Will Ertz make much out of his opportunities in Washington? Probably not! But that didn't stop Kingsbury from featuring him ahead of another former stud second-round pick in Trey McBride back in 2022. Overall, McBride had just four total targets in Weeks 1-10 as a rookie before Ertz was lost for the season.

This isn't to dismiss the possibility that Ben Sinnott finds a way to make an early impact. The reigning Lowman Award winner presented to the nation's best collegiate fullback, Sinnott combines elite athleticism coming off an impressive (for a TE) 49-676-6 senior campaign. Still, his Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model comps aren't great, and it's possible the second-round pick finds himself in a part-time role inside a probably meh passing game to begin his career.

Ertz is the sort of "progress stopper" veteran TE who will soak up snaps despite likely not providing much efficiency in return, making Sinnott more of a mid-round dynasty stash as opposed to a late-round TE you should be going out of your way for in re-draft and best ball land.

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Tier 8: Rookies and second-stringers (12)

Rookie TEs historically don't achieve all that much in fantasy land, while it's pretty tough to score fantasy points without a starting job (thanks Biden). Still, these guys have enough of a path to success to at least earn a little recognition in this column, and so here we are…

• Commanders TE Ben Sinnott: Combines elite athleticism coming off an impressive (for a TE) 49-676-6 senior campaign. Still, his Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model comps aren't great, and it's possible the second-round pick finds himself in a part-time role inside a probably meh passing game to begin his career.
• Giants TE Theo Johnson: Borderline erotic athletic profile is combined with arguably the softest TE depth chart in the league.
• Panthers TE Tommy Tremble: Plus athlete in a TE room with few proven commodities, although that was also true the first three seasons of his career and the former third-round pick has still never reached 200 yards in a single season. The allure here is that Dave Cannales hands Tremble a Cade Otton-esque every-down role.
• Raiders TE Michael Mayer: Looked poised to take a leap forward in his second season … until his team decided to spend a first-round pick on Brock Bowers. Maybe Las Vegas essentially turns 12 personnel into their full-time offense, but even then the ceiling is low due to a bad combination of high-end target competition and low-end QB play.
• Rams TE Colby Parkinson: The Rams felt enough concern about Tyler Higbee (ACL) to give Parkinson a whopping three-year, $22.5 million contract — including $15.5 million guaranteed. Still, the Rams rank just 26th in total targets to TEs since 2021, and Fantasy Life Projections expect second-year talent Davis Allen to turn this into an evenly split committee.
• Chargers TE Will Dissly: The money (3 years, $14 million, $10 million guaranteed) should cement Dissly as the Chargers' primary TE over Hayden Hurst (1-year, $1.125 million, $0 guaranteed), but even then it wouldn't be overly surprising if Donald Parham winds up leading the way in targets. The 28-year-old veteran has never reached 35 receptions, 350 yards or five TDs in a season.
• Packers TE Tucker Kraft: Was splitting reps with Luke Musgrave by the end of last season, but it's tough to see a path to high-end relevancy while both are healthy. Unfortunately, that sentiment isn't true for Kraft at the moment, although his rough return-to-play projection from a torn pec should have him ready by Week 1.
• Bills TE Dawson Knox: Just two years removed from a nine-TD campaign and played between 40-84% of the offense's snaps in all 14 of his games last year. Still, Knox never reached even 40 yards in a game last season; he's clearly the No. 2 receiving option behind Dalton Kincaid and is as TD-dependent as any player at the position.
• Chargers TE Hayden Hurst: Boasts familiarity with offensive coordinator Greg Roman and does have a 56-571-6 season to his name. Still, there's no guaranteed money here, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Hurst finish behind both Will Dissly and Donald Parham in total targets.
• Giants TE Daniel Bellinger: The odds-on favorite to be the Giants' starting TE this season, but rookie Theo Johnson sounds ready to immediately eat into the receiving role. Ultimately, we've seen Bellinger post a fantasy-friendly snap rate north of 80% in 12 games during his short career … and he's never reached even 45 yards in a game.
• Panthers TE Ja'Tavion Sanders: Has an underwhelming athletic profile and wound up being a day-three selection. Historically, TEs drafted outside of the top three rounds struggle to ever put forward big-time fantasy numbers, and the track record of high-end late-round rookies at the position is essentially non-existent.

Most likely to emerge as a somewhat fantasy-friendly option: Theo Johnson

Johnson has some freaky athletic traits:

• 6-foot-6, 259 pounds with a 39.5-inch vertical and 4.57-second 40-yard dash
• 9.93 relative athletic score (RAS) — good for the ninth-highest mark among 1,199 players at the position since 1987
• Johnson's 118.2 Athleticism Score (Player Profiler) ranked first in the 2024 TE class and seventh all-time at the position

While the Penn State product never gained more than 75 receiving yards in a game, that's not too atypical for the position at the collegiate level, and smarter football minds than myself have praised his potential as an inline blocker.

I trust The Athletic's Dane Brugler more than just about anyone when it comes to evaluating incoming NFL talent, and he had the following summary on Johnson (his TE3 overall) in his must-read "The Beast" manifesto:

“Johnson is quick off the ball and builds his speed downfield, giving his quarterback a big target with his size, strong hands and athletic catch radius. As a blocker, he doesn’t embarrass himself but needs to better understand leverage and develop more of a glass chewing mentality. Overall, Johnson has inconsistent college tape and production, but he has A-plus measurements and smooth athletic tools that could allow him to continue developing and become a better pro than college player. Although he is a work in progress, he is a worthy long-term investment for an NFL team.”

The Giants drafted Johnson while expecting Darren Waller to retire … and he did! While the ex-Raiders veteran disappointed during his lone season in the big apple, Fantasy Life's Utilization Hub demonstrates the reality that there is a fantasy-friendly role to be had here: Waller surpassed an 80% route rate in seven of his 12 games last season — that sort of role would IMMEDIATELY slot Johnson as one of the position's must-have waiver wire options come Week 2.