It’s finally here! Time to get ready for Week 1 of the NFL season. While almost every week in the NFL can be unpredictable, the first week of the season tends to be wild. Many players didn’t play at all in the preseason and there will be rust for many.

Last season, Baker Mayfield passed for 289 yards with 4 touchdowns and Joe Burrow had 164 passing yards with no touchdowns in Week 1. Derrick Henry rushed for 46 yards, Jayden Reed had 33.1 PPR points, Isaiah Likely had 26.1 points, Allen Lazard 26.9,  Drake London 3.5 points and Terry McLaurin 3.7. None of these were true indications of how these players' seasons would go, except for Mayfield.

Anyway, here are my predictions for the biggest surprises and disappointments for Week 1

Fantasy Football Week 1 Predictions

Drake Maye Finishes As a Top-12 Quarterback

There has been a lot of excitement for some when it comes to Drake Maye for the upcoming season. I believe he can finish the season as a Top-12 quarterback, and he will do it this week against Las Vegas, which ranked 25th in scoring defense last season. Maye didn’t have a lot to work with in his rookie season and still did well. Josh McDaniels took over as offensive coordinator, the offensive line was improved, and Stefon Diggs, TreVeyon Henderson and Kyle Williams are big upgrades for Maye, who averaged 38.3 rushing yards in his 11 full starts. Maye starts the season with a good performance making those who drafted him as a starter feel confident.

Emeka Egbuka Makes a Splash in his Debut

Rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka has been one of the biggest risers in drafts over the last month and we will see why on Sunday against the Falcons. The 19th overall pick has had things break in his favor. Jalen McMillan will miss at least half the season with a neck injury, and Chris Godwin is expected to miss at least one month coming off a dislocated ankle. Egbuka will play a big role in the offense immediately, and has received nothing but praise from Mayfield, head coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht. The Falcons allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers last season and didn’t do much to improve the secondary. Mike Evans will likely see a lot of cornerback A.J. Terrell. The game is indoors with a 46.5-point total. Egbuka will finish as a Top-10 receiver for the week.

James Conner Finishes as a Top 5 RB

James Conner may be 30 years old and some are concerned about him holding up for another season, but it’s not a concern in Week 1. Conner showed no signs of slowing down last year and finished high in several metrics. The Cardinals are favored by 6.5 points against the Saints, who project to be one of the worst teams this season. Arizona should be in a favorable game script and be in position to score. The Saints allowed 18 rushing TDs to running backs last season, 4.9 yards per carry, and were No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA. Even if Trey Benson gets more work this season, Conner will get most of the goal-line carries.

Caleb Williams Starts Slowly

There’s a lot of excitement for the Bears offense with Ben Johnson taking over as coach, the upgrades to the offensive line, and the additions of Luther Burden and Colston Loveland from the draft. While it may work out at the end of the season, expect a slow start from the offense. Caleb Williams won’t finish in the Top 20 against the Vikings. It’s a new offense with a lot of different pieces where roles aren’t established yet against a good Vikings defense. The Vikings were second in turnover rate, third in EPA allowed per play and blitzed at the highest rate. Patience is needed with the Bears offense.

Breece Hall Struggles Against Pittsburgh

Breece Hall is entering his final year of his rookie contract. The Jets are expected to rely on the run and use several backs along with quarterback Justin Fields. Hall is coming off a disappointing season with a career-low 4.2 yards per carry and only one 100-yard game. It won’t change in Week 1 against the Steelers, who were the fourth-ranked defense last season and were ninth in EPA per play allowed.

Josh Downs Starts Strong

Daniel Jones being the quarterback should help Josh Downs. He averaged 7.1 receptions and 66.4 yards per game last season with Joe Flacco. Downs has a good matchup against the Dolphins where he should be matched up with fifth-round rookie Jason Marshall Jr.

David Njoku Shreds the Bengals

David Njoku faced the Bengals twice last season and had 24 targets in two games. The Bengals played their starters in the preseason to prevent slow starts that have plagued them in recent seasons. If the offense puts up points, the Browns will be playing from behind and passing often. Njoku had 8 catches for 66 yards on 10 targets and 10 catches for 76 yards with a TD on 14 targets against Cincinnati last season.

Calvin Ridley Faces Tough Matchup

Calvin Ridley is on a lot of my teams and I had him ranked much higher than his ADP. This is going to be one of his worst weeks of the season. The Titans open the season on the road in Denver with rookie quarterback Cam Ward. Denver is one of the toughest places to play in September. The Broncos are 83-34-2 all-time at home in September. The Broncos have one of the best secondaries in the NFL and Ridley should see a lot of Pat Surtain. He was the second-ranked cornerback last season, according to PFF.

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