Chris Allen examines the importance of targets and how to measure different types to determine which are more valuable to fantasy football.

More isn’t always better.

I love to cook. It’s one of the few things I do that forces me away from my keyboard for a bit. Besides, the engineering part of my brain loves the structure of a recipe. Unfortunately for my wife, my creative side lets me go rogue. A teaspoon of garam marsala? A tablespoon should be fine. Anyway, through trial and error (and a ruined dish or two), I’ve learned there’s more to a meal than one flavor.

Stats aren’t that dissimilar. There’s no one to rule them all. Player evaluation requires a balance of multiple metrics to contextualize their game. However, kind of like salt or pepper, there’s at least one measurement that should be at the base of any assessment for a pass catcher: targets. 

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The Definition

“A target is when a player has the ball thrown to them independent of them catching it.”

Honestly, it doesn’t get any simpler than this. Anytime the ball leaves the QB’s hands (toward the line of scrimmage), the intended receiver earns a target. 

For pass catchers, it’s their lifeblood. Yards come from having the ball in your hands. To catch the ball, you have to have it thrown your way. However, like seasonings, it has to work in concert with things. Malik Nabers gave us a few examples of this last year.

Let’s set aside Nabers’ gaudy 18 targets in his first game against the Commanders. Actually, I’ll dwell on it for a beat. He got 18; the total combined count for the rest of the team was nine. Accordingly, the results matched Daniel Jones’ preference to look toward Nabers. But as easy as the rookie made it seem, there was more to his production than just catching the ball.

There were 188 instances of a WR drawing 10 or more targets in 2024. Nabers’ Week 2 performance is one of five to earn top-12 marks in both YAC per reception and yards per route run. Or, put another way, volume needs efficiency. Without it, they’re like eating chips. You’d have to go through two bags to be full. I’ll let Drake London explain.

The Falcons’ WR1 got 16 targets. But his QB had the seventh-lowest completion percentage over expected amongst all starters that week. Consequently, London’s 60.0% catchable-target rate was his third lowest in ’24. Kirk Cousins would have had to get over 20 passes in London’s direction to get him over 100 yards.

So, yes, creating after the catch is a priority. But, like gaining the trust of your QB, it’s also a skill. And, with a better understanding of targets, you can see why we lean on players with proficiency in both areas.

Why Do Targets Matter?

I’ll use another player to highlight the importance of targets.

Remember Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s TD streak last season?

From Week 6 to 13, the Titans’ WR2 averaged a score per game. Of course, he rug-pulled anyone who bought into the “trend” when they needed him during the playoffs. In either case, most analysts saw the run as fugazi from the jump. Talent concerns aside, Westbrook-Ikhine was living off 4.5 targets per game. And those attempts came from Mason Rudolph and Will Levis. So, two nuggets here. First, you can see the fallacy in expecting a lesser WR with an even worse QB situation to continue finding the end zone. The second point sits at the heart of what targets are.

Targets, like air yards, are an opportunity stat. The more often a pass catcher earns them, the likelier they are to generate points. I mean, let’s be real. There’s a reason why guys like Jarvis Landry, Larry Fitzgerald, and Julian Edelman became easy clicks in PPR leagues after the alphas were off the board (if those names are too old for you, think Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen, and Adam Thielen). It wasn’t a secret. We knew they were a significant part of their team’s passing game. Sure, the names have changed, but the strategy of prioritizing players with strong workloads has been an overall profitable approach for years.

Quick aside: if you didn’t check out my air yards breakdown, I broke down correlation charts there. In a nutshell, the bigger the R² value (number in the bottom left), the greater the connection between the plotted metrics. Accordingly, 0.73 indicates a strong relationship between targets and fantasy points. Put another way, the data reinforces how we build rosters. But I looked at every pass-catching position for this first pass. Luckily, splitting the study out to each role yielded similar results. 

• WR: 0.73 (R² value, 2020-2024, min. 50.0% route rate)
• RB: 0.66
• TE: 0.78 

RBs face simpler coverage and catch higher-percentage throws. Subsequently, they can rack up fantasy points at a similar pace as their WR counterparts, (slightly) lessening the need for considerable volume. On the flip side, TEs need to be active everywhere, especially in the red zone (i.e., forcing a heavier reliance on targets). In any case, a single season is like a snapshot in time. During the year, we can gauge any shifts in volume with the plethora of news we have available to us. However, there’s a general level of stickiness to getting in sync with your QB.

An "n vs. n+1" graph gives us a measure of year-over-year stability. Or if what happened one season has a shot of happening next time. Yes, it’s a weaker link. But that’s where the skill part of earning targets comes into play.

We see this every draft and free-agency period. Our favorite receiver breaks out on a squad with little to no competition. So, throughout the following offseason, we’re hoping to avoid the big swing at a veteran or an early-round prospect joining the team. Commanders fans might have wanted Tee Higgins to come to Maryland. But I’m sure anyone with Terry McLaurin on their dynasty roster didn’t. However, there are ways, even in hypothetical situations like Washington’s, where we can use targets to determine how best to value players both during the draft and the regular season.

How Can You Use Targets?

ADPs from spring and the start of summer can change in an instant. The main driver is the previous year’s outcomes, so anything to challenge the status quo affects the market. Regardless, fantasy gamers have gotten smart enough to value receivers who consistently earn targets for some time now.  

If getting the ball thrown your way contributes to fantasy points, and draft costs are a results-oriented field, then seeing the averages dip as the sixth round approaches shouldn’t be a surprise. It’s an arms (hands?) race in the early rounds to get the quality WRs. However, if you can agree that receiving a target is a trait on its own, you can find players worth making bets on throughout roster-building season.

I could make a small case that we should ignore the Giants taking Nabers at sixth overall as a reason to draft him early. Yes, teams can’t lie with their wallets, making the LSU standout a clear priority for their present and future. But they’ve had a top-10 pick in three of the last five drafts. Their offense needs talent everywhere. The support for adding a guy like Nabers came from his college metrics and situation after the draft.

Nabers had the second-most looks of any FBS WR during his final season at LSU. And while most of his work came in the short area of the field (40.3% target rate), he led the Tigers in downfield targets and catches. Combined with his affinity for beating man coverage, it’s no wonder he has the third-highest score in our rookie Super Model. Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton were his closest competition. We should’ve penned him in for 10 targets per game. Nabers averaging 11.3 emphasizes why understanding how much volume a player can command plays a role in their future. For veterans, the same thought exercise can be a bit more challenging. 

So, here’s where I say I was wrong.

Around this time last year, I had DJ Moore on my “no draft” list. Then-OC Shane Waldron was notorious for passing well below expectation in the red zone. Chicago added Keenan Allen in free agency and then grabbed Rome Odunze with its first pick. At first glance, Moore’s 28.5% share of the targets looked to be in jeopardy. And this was when he was playing with Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney! Even without the risk of Caleb Williams potentially struggling in his rookie year, Moore’s fourth-round price tag was too steep for me. I forgot how strong of a talent earning targets can be.

Moore’s target total slid up from 136 in ’23 to 140 last year. To be fair, Allen wasn’t healthy until Week 5. But even with him on the field, Moore averaged 8.2 attempts per game as opposed to his 8.0 the prior year. 

Different QB. Different coaching staff. Same ability to demand work. 

Unfortunately for Cole Kmet, he became the low man on the pass-catching totem pole, allowing Moore to continue hauling in catches each week. The inefficiencies of the passing game kept Moore (and everyone else) from hitting their ceiling outside of a few games. But the power to keep getting the QB’s attention and trust is something we shouldn’t take for granted. 

Let’s Build On What We Know

It’s important to recognize none of these stats stand on their own.

Sure, I wrote about and will continue to explain each of them individually. But like my cooking analogy to open the piece, they work together. Or, at least, that’s the intent. Anyway, since we’ve got two to consider (targets and air yards), let’s apply them together.

Tyreek Hill and Amon-Ra St. Brown don’t play the same position. Well, yes, they’re both WRs. You’ll find both headlining the first round of most drafts. But think about where Hill wins as compared to ARSB. Or, better yet, think about how each plays their part. Their stylistic differences could fill up a page. I can boil them down to two numbers.

• Hill: 11.5 (air yards per target)
• St. Brown: 7.3

Air yards per target are like yards per carry. Quantitatively, the value denotes how far downfield a receiver goes each time they get the ball. Qualitatively, we can see how a player operates on the field. Their calling card may be speed to create explosives downfield (Hill) or release techniques to separate from defenders (St. Brown). Also, air yards per target can indicate how risky a player’s outlook might be.

Let’s think about two extremes for a WR: low targets per game with high air yards and high targets per game with low air yards. You’d find a receiver like Alec Pierce in the first bucket. Over half of his receiving yards came on targets of 20 air yards or more. They’re fun to watch until you’re relying on them for a win. The second category belongs to the Wan’Dale Robinsons of the world. In PPR leagues, they’re floor plays (or scams) but require a double-digit outburst to crack the Top 24. So, neither a high nor low air yards per target is the magic number to look for in a receiver.

The answer? Somewhere in the middle.

WRs eclipsing 300 PPR points over the last five seasons have averaged 10.4 air yards per target. It’s why I used St. Brown and Hill as prime examples. They encompass the skill a WR needs to have top-12 consideration. 

A typical game from Hill may involve a few short-area attempts from the slot to get him running across the field. But we all know the windup from Tua Tagovailoa is coming with Hill on the other end of the pass. Or Jared Goff will pepper St. Brown with targets in the intermediate parts of the field to go with his usual high-percentage throws. Regardless, by combining our knowledge of targets and air yards, we can build a stronger process for targeting pass catchers in drafts. 

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