Is Baker Mayfield Primed To Bounce Back In 2026 Fantasy Football?
Can Baker Mayfield bounce back and provide us with the fantasy fireworks we got all too used to from seasons prior? Ian Hartitz breaks it down.
After providing fantasy football players with fireworks in 2024 with the Bucs, Baker Mayfield took a massive step backwards after starting out hot last season, leaving fantasy managers wondering what to do with him in 2026. Ian Hartitz breaks down Mayfield's fantasy outlook as part of his Tampa Bay Buccaneers fantasy football team preview.
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Can Baker Mayfield Bounce Back To His 2024 Form For 2026 Fantasy Football?
- QB1: Baker Mayfield (QB19 in our consensus fantasy football rankings)
- QB2: Jake Browning
Let's take a quick trip down memory lane and remember Baker Mayfield's last five NFL seasons:
- 2021: Mayfield and the Browns fail to build upon their promising 2020, undoubtedly in part due to Baker tearing his left labrum in Week 2. The down season compelled the Browns to put their eggs in the Deshaun Watson basket, leading to Mayfield being traded to the Panthers for just a conditional fifth-round pick.
- 2022: Things didn't go any better in Carolina, as a more bad than good first five starts led to Sam Darnold and PJ Walker instead starting under center. You've seen the scout team d-line picture. Good news (kinda) for Baker: He was claimed off waivers by the Rams, where he managed to lead the team to a fun, last-second Thursday night victory just two days after being signed.
- 2023: Baker gets a one-year deal worth up to $8.5 million to compete with Kyle Trask as Tom Brady's replacement. Not only does Mayfield win the job, but he sets career-high marks in passing yards (4,044) and touchdowns (28) on his way to leading Tampa Bay to a surprising NFC North crown and Wild Card victory over the Eagles.
- 2024: Mayfield and company soar even higher, as this time he racks up 4,500 yards and 41 scores under Liam Coen's direction. The Bucs offense ranks fourth in scoring and captured another NFC North title, but fell to the Commanders in the playoffs on a walk-off field goal.
- 2025: Arguably, nobody was playing the position better during the first month and a half, but then Mayfield fell off in a major way, looking like the pre-2023 version of himself for the first time in a minute. He set three-year lows in most meaningful passing metrics, although a Week 12 sprained AC joint in his left shoulder could've played a role.
In fact, that latter shoulder injury wasn't the only thing Mayfield was dealing with down the stretch of 2025. The full list is actually quite insane.
While we probably can't simply hone in on Mayfield's success in Weeks 1-6 and assume that was going to be the case for the rest of the season, it's clear that Baker—along with MANY of the offense's other key contributors—was operating at less than 100% for most of the second half of the season. This at least adds some credibility to the idea that we could see a bounce-back to 2024 form in fantasy land.
Mayfield fantasy points per game by season:
- 2023: 16.1 (QB17)
- 2024: 21.5 (QB4)
- 2025: 16 (QB18)
You know whose three-year fantasy stretch looks very similar to that? Joe Burrow! Look for yourself. Of course, Burrow's 2023 and 2025 seasons were impacted by injuries … but again: The same is true for Mayfield last year, yet nobody seems to be overly factoring that in considering the man is currently going off the board as the QB20 (pick 116) in early ADP.
Look, other guys in that range like Jordan Love and Sam Darnold have also flashed a ceiling in one of the last three years. Mayfield doesn't necessarily deserve to be sky-rocketed up the ranks, but the reality that we can get upside options like this late has me more willing than ever to play the late-round QB game in 2025. Sure, straight up, I prefer guys like Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence, but the opportunity cost of taking them involves missing out on the last solid tier of WR4 options and high-end handcuffs. This looks like a GOOD year to stay patient and attack these qualified mid-tier QB2s.
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