Is It Time To Abandon Ship On Kyle Pitts and Michael Wilson?

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Pristine Auction:

If you made it to the fantasy semifinals, congrats.

If you got there because of Kyle Pitts or Michael Wilson, I have some bad news for you …

Marvin Harrison Jr. and Drake London returned to walkthroughs/practice yesterday.

Neither of these is a total death knell to the fantasy value of Pitts or Wilson, but it certainly cripples their high-end appeal.

In games with Marv, Wilson is averaging 4.5 targets per game. Without him? 15 TARGETS PER GAME. Yes, I’m yelling.
As for Pitts, he averages around six targets per game with London but has averaged 9.4 over the last five weeks without him.

You’ll need to consult our ranks as they get updated throughout the week, but my lean is to still start Pitts because the position is fairly weak, but it will be tough to rely on Wilson if Harrison Jr. returns.

Unfortunately, I’m not done pouring cold water on plays we recently got hyped on.

On Tuesday, I encouraged you to pick up Bill in case Chris Rodriguez missed another week, but that doesn’t appear to be happening with C-Rod back at practice. Hopefully, you can swap him out for Rodriguez.

Also, I’m still excited about Darren Waller vs. the Bengals, but there’s certainly added risk with the play now that Quinn Ewers is starting instead of Tua Tagovailoa.

Once again, our ranks are your friend … but stay safe out there. This week has big Week 18 energy, and that’s not a good thing.

OUR FULL WEEK 16 RANKINGS

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Week 16 Rankings: From Backup To Top-Six QB

It is time to set our fantasy lineups for the semi-finals of the fantasy playoffs in Week 16, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest risers and fallers in the ranks to help you make those start-sit decisions.

Jacoby Brissett is a top-six fantasy QB in Week 16.

Since taking over as the Cardinals' starter in Week 6, Brissett is the QB4 with 20.7 points per game (PPG). Over the last two weeks, he has overcome difficult matchups against the Rams and Texans, delivering 19.0 and 20.6 fantasy points. His worst game in nine starts: 17.4 points.

The Cardinals have been the most pass-happy team in the league since Brissett became the starter. Over that span, they have a 6% dropback rate over expected (DBOE). Over the last five weeks, they have a league-leading 10% DBOE, leading to a whopping 78% dropback rate.

While Brissett has never had a season like this before, it's hard to look at his nine-game sample and not consider him one of the best QB options.

Projection Model (using my PPR projections):

Xfinity Best (ceiling): 24.0
Median: 18.7
Floor: 14.8

Brissett is my QB4 against the Falcons in Week 16.

Jameson Williams enters the top-12 WRs in Week 16.

In five games without Sam LaPorta, Williams has a 24% target share. That has led to 7.4 targets and 92.4 air yards per contest. He has averaged 18.1 points per game with an 82 Utilization Score.

Detroit has the No. 1 team total on the slate at 28.3 points, and Freedman's NFL Betting Game Model likes it even more (30).

The Steelers have been an above-average matchup, providing a 1.8-point fantasy boost to opposite WR units.

Projection Model:

Xfinity Best (ceiling): 23.3
Median: 14.8
Floor: 10.9

Williams is a top-10 WR option against Pittsburgh.

Dwain breaks down all of his Week 16 Rankings below. ⬇️

DWAIN’S FULL BREAKDOWN OF HIS WEEK 16 RANKINGS

Ian’s 8 Things To Know For The Fantasy Football Semi-Finals

Week 16 is upon us. Reminder: Friends and family come and go, but fantasy football championship banners hang forever.

This brings us to today's goal: Eight mostly fantasy-relevant things to know ahead of Week 16 that ideally will help make you both a better fantasy manager and overall person.

What are the outlier positional matchups to care about in Week 16?
Can we trust these newfound stud fantasy RBs?
Two Interesting questions I wanted to answer
Ollie Williams' Weather Report: Two potential games to worry about
What man-coverage splits can we take advantage of for Week 16?
Week 15 RB Usage Report: F*ck the Injury Gods
The DST Corner: Chiefs and Saints headline the best streamer options
The Mismatch Manifesto: Biggest matchup advantages of the week

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. What are the outlier positional matchups to care about in Week 16?

Fantasy Life's "Defense vs. Position" tool calculates the fantasy boost that every position receives depending on its matchup. The following position groups are looking at a positive five-plus point swing thanks to a rock-solid on-paper matchup.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert vs. Cowboys (+6.7 fantasy boost): Here's to hoping the Chargers can keep Herbert clean enough to take advantage of a Cowboys secondary that has continuously helped make even some of the league's worst passers look competent. That's really the only concern here: Since Week 11, the Chargers rank 30th in pressure rate allowed (44%), and the Cowboys defense is a respectable ninth (39.9%).
Dolphins RB De'Von Achane vs. Bengals (+6.3): Obviously, you were already starting Achane regardless, but here's to hoping this b-e-a-utiful matchup in the trenches helps overcome a potential dropoff in scoring upside with Quinn Ewers under center.
Vikings RB Aaron Jones vs. Giants (+5.3): Has gone 78 long, cold touches without a score. That certainly could change against a Giants defense that has allowed the second-most rushing yards to opposing RBs this season.
Chargers WR Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen vs. Cowboys (+7.4): Both will be further boosted up the fantasy ranks if Quentin Johnston (groin) remains sidelined.
Steelers WR DK Metcalf vs. Lions (+5.6): On a bit of a heater with 7-148-0 and 3-55-1 receiving lines over the last two weeks. This Lions defense has allowed each of Jameis Winston (366-2-1), Jordan Love (234-4-0), Dak Prescott (376-1-2) and Matthew Stafford (368-2-1) to go off during their last four matchups.
Dolphins Darren Waller vs. Bengals (+8): Coming off his second two-TD performance of the season, Waller commanded a season-high eight targets on Monday night … but the presence of Quinn Ewers under center throws a bit of a wrench into things. Waller would have been a top-10 play at the position, although now I'm more inclined to treat him as a borderline TE1 despite the A+ matchup.

As for the worst matchups: WRs from the Commanders (Eagles -6.5), Giants (Vikings -6.5), and Raiders (Texans -5.7) will have their hands full. This concern also applies to the latter two involved QBs, as nobody has posted a stronger negative fantasy boost against opposing QBs than Brian Flores and DeMeco Ryans this season.

SEVEN MORE THINGS TO KNOW

Around the Watercooler

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds.

📺 Every Week 16 matchup broken down to help you move on to the championship.

📈 Time to look ahead in dynasty … how the top-20 QB rankings shake out.

👀 This roundtable talks Trevor Lawrence in Denver … and a Die Hard Christmas tradition like no other.

❓Pregame with Coach Gene Clemons during his Fantasy Life Discord office hours starting at 7 p.m. ET. Get those lineup questions answered.

🤔 Davante Adams redzone packages? Maybe, but don’t get your hopes up.

💰 If you aren’t tracking which players are chasing bonuses, we’ve got you covered.

😬 Tetairoa McMillan added to the injury report … Coke Heads rise up?

🤢 This Chiefs situation is a mess. Stay away this week.

👋 Speaking of Chiefs … there’s no way Kelce returns, right?

🧀 Good news for the Packers. This game is Saturday, btw.