J.J. McCarthy Fantasy Football Outlook for 2025: A Draft-Day Steal At His Current Cost?
Thor Nystrom breaks down what to expect from red-shirt rookie J.J. McCarthy in his first season as the Vikings starting quarterback.
There may be no greater authority on all things J.J. McCarthy than Thor Nystrom, who was tasked with writing an 85-word blurb on McCarthy for our upcoming 2025 draft magazine.
Well, 85 words turned into 460, and here we are, breaking down J.J. McCarthy's 2025 fantasy football outlook … because who really expected Thor to keep it brief when it comes to McCarthy?
J.J. McCarthy Fantasy Football Outlook for 2025
The QB3 in my pre-draft rankings, McCarthy found the best situation of any quarterback drafted. The Vikings have: a skilled playcaller in HC Kevin O’Connell, one of the NFL’s best receiving corps, a star receiving tight end, two starting-caliber running backs, and one of the NFL’s best offensive lines.
In 2023, McCarthy won a national title as a 20-year-old third-year junior in a 12-personnel pro-style offense for a sitting NFL HC (Jim Harbaugh) who called McCarthy the best player in last year’s draft and the greatest collegiate quarterback in Michigan history. McCarthy is a good athlete, with the sixth-fastest 3-cone at the NFL Combine and a reported 4.48 40 at Michigan. And he has a big-league arm, with a 61 mph max-velocity throw at the Combine that fell one mph under the record. Those things work in conjunction with one another on the field.
McCarthy’s 72.3% completion percentage in 2023—No. 5 in the FBS in catchable throw rate—only dropped to 71.4% while scrambling. He has the lateral agility and acceleration to get out of sticky situations, and he takes his mechanics with him on the move. McCarthy’s improvisation could be special at the next level.
McCarthy mercilessly attacks the middle of the field—a key aspect of O’Connell’s offense. In 2023, McCarthy had the most completions in the intermediate range over the middle among the top quarterbacks in this draft class, finishing with an 85.6% adjusted completion percentage and 91.2 passing grade between the hashes.
During the latter half of 2023, in a gauntlet of murderer’s row defenses during Michigan’s run to the title, McCarthy became increasingly comfortable moving to his second and third reads. He still needs to improve in this area, but the signs of progression are encouraging.
McCarthy also could stand to modulate his touch on certain throws. He will improve as a passer if he trades velocity for trajectory or touch on throws that call for them. In 2023, he managed to rank No. 5 in the FBS in catchable-throw rate despite finishing No. 48 outside the numbers. When he’s off, it’s due to his tendency on those throws to take an exaggerated lead step and then swing his upper body on the follow-through.
The fantasy community is underselling the value McCarthy’s legs will provide. His prerogative is to use his athleticism to evade pressure and scan down the field for options. But McCarthy is dangerous when he tucks, capable of stealing yards quickly. And he could score a lot of NFL touchdowns around the goal line.
Where Does J.J. McCarthy Rank Among Fantasy QBs?
J.J. McCarthy is currently ranked as the consensus QB21 among Fantasy Life rankers.
No ranker has McCarthy higher than QB20 (Freedman), while the lowest on McCarthy of the bunch is Rob Waziak (QB23).
With a current Underdog ADP of 134.6 (QB20), there's certainly room for ceiling without having to pay a premium.
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