Josh Allen, George Kittle and More Fallout From Wild Card Weekend

We were due for a dud after five great Wildcard games.

In an ugly slog fest with very little action, the Patriots and Chargers combined for only one TD. New England’s defense earned the game ball, allowing only three points, generating six sacks and making Justin Herbert’s night miserable for four straight quarters (he was 1/10 on third down).

The two earlier games yesterday, however, were as good as advertised and headlined by the two players who have dominated fantasy football for the last decade …

He really is Superman. The Jags were the better team yesterday, but Josh Allen (30.22 fantasy points) was the best player on the field. Despite getting banged up, Allen put the Bills on his back with three total TDs (one passing + two rushing TDs) and multiple game-saving first downs. The victory also gave Allen his first road playoff win in his career.

CMC will not go quietly into the night. The Niners were fairly big ‘dogs heading into this game and then lost George Kittle to a torn Achilles in the second quarter. Kittle drowned his sorrows in a bottle of tequila, while Christian McCaffrey (26.4 fantasy points) scored two TDs—including this dime from Jauan Jennings on a trick play.

So where does that leave us?

Tonight at 8:15 pm ET: Texans (-3) at Steelers. The winner of this game will head to New England on Sunday for a date with Maye.
Saturday TBD: Bills (-1.5) at Broncos.
Saturday TBD: 49ers (+7) at Seahawks.
Sunday TBD: Rams (-3.5) at Bears.

PROJECTIONS FOR TONIGHT’S FINAL WILD CARD GAME

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Texans vs. Steelers DFS Building Blocks, Value Plays and More

Building Block: Nico Collins ($10,600; DraftKings)

The Texans stand out as the better option of the two squads on Monday night. They’re favored, giving them a slightly higher implied team total, and the matchup is significantly friendlier. While the Texans are among the stingiest defenses in football for fantasy purposes, the Steelers can be had. They were a bottom-seven unit in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends this season.

Collins is the Texans’ top skill-position player. He leads the slate in terms of median projection, and he has the top Xfinity “best” score as well. That’s really what we care most about on this slate: when a player hits his ceiling, how many points can he reasonably score?

Collins had a very healthy 25% target share and 37% air yards share for the season. He also saw 33% of the team’s end zone targets. Collins’ production did slide a bit down the stretch, but he’s proven capable of putting together big performances over the past two seasons. He had at least 20.6 PPR points in five of his 15 games this season, giving him arguably the top ceiling on the slate. He’ll likely be the most popular choice at the premium spot on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but it’s pretty easy to see why.

Value Play: Pat Freiermuth ($5,000; DraftKings)

The Steelers have leaned on their running backs and tight ends as heavily as any team in football this season. Part of that stems from Aaron Rodgers’ unwillingness to push the ball downfield. He got rid of the ball quicker than any QB in football during the regular season, and no QB averaged fewer air yards per attempt.

The Steelers have had a trio of options at tight end for most of the year, but Darnell Washington going down with an injury changed things for Freiermuth. He had a 76% route participation over his final two games, and he saw five targets in both contests.

Freiermuth failed to score in either of those games, but he did have a 33% end zone share in those outings. The Texans also haven’t been quite as dominant against tight ends as they have vs. other positions, allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game.

Contrarian Target: Calvin Austin ($3,400; DraftKings)

Even if you’re building around the Texans, you’re still going to want a balance of players in your lineups. It’s rare for a winning six-man DFS lineup to feature more than four players from any one team unless the game turns into a blowout. While that’s possible, it doesn’t seem too likely given the three-point spread.

Austin could be a bit undervalued for the Steelers. He returned to the lineup in Week 18, and he stepped right back into a sizable role. His route participation was merely 66%, but he was targeted on 21% of his routes. He gobbled up 36% of the team’s air yards and an end zone target, and he ultimately finished with 14.5 DraftKings points.

Austin could lose some opportunities with Metcalf back in the fold, but he still figures to be one of their top pass-catchers.

WHO ON THE STEELERS IS A BUILDING BLOCK?