Josh Jacobs Is Still A TD-Scoring Machine For Fantasy Football
Ian Hartitz breaks down the Green Bay Packers RB room, focusing on Josh Jacobs remaining a bell cow back.
Josh Jacobs has averaged nearly a touchdown per game as a member of the Packers, and even though he's at the tail end of his prime he could remain the focal point of the Green Bay offense. His remaining on the field is key for the Packers. Ian Hartitz breaks it down as part of his Green Bay Packers Team Preview.
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Should you continue to trust Josh Jacobs as a fantasy RB1?
- RB1: Josh Jacobs (RB14 in Fantasy Life ranks)
- RB2: MarShawn Lloyd (RB75)
- RB3: Chris Brooks (RB79)
Note that this analysis is conducted independently of Jacobs' current legal issues. Obviously, we'll need to monitor the situation throughout the summer. It's very reasonable to avoid drafting Jacobs—and prioritize his backups in the later rounds–while the outcome remains murky.
Jacobs has racked up 2,882 total yards and 30 touchdowns in 32 regular-season games with the Packers. That's been good for RB8 and RB10 finishes in PPR points per game, although the latter figure could have been even higher if it weren't for a lingering knee injury that he suffered in Week 11 and then re-aggravated in Week 15. That latter injury, combined with an ankle issue, really seemed to (Bob) sap a lot of Jacobs' juice, as he turned his last 35 carries into just 94 yards (2.7 yards per carry) and zero touchdowns.
While nobody will be writing songs about Jacobs' 4.2 yards per carry with the Packers, plenty of other rushing metrics paint him as an objectively good-to-great player. 8th in yards after contact per carry (3.3), 14th in tackles avoided per carry (21.1%), 13th in rushing success rate (48.6%), really the only thing that can be held against Jacobs is his lack of big plays (26th in explosive rush rate, 6.9%).
This is all to say: Nothing is scary about Jacobs' projected workload (9th most touches), scoring environment (LaFleur's offenses have ranked 12th, 8th, and 16th these last three seasons), or competition (look at this depth chart). 28 is around the age that RBs start to drop off a bit, but there's also some survivorship bias going on there. The one issue is the offensive line (18th and 30th in RB rush yards before contact per carry in 2024-25), but hey, that problem didn't exactly stop Jacobs from putting up RB1-level fantasy numbers!
This is a damn good running back, people!
Jacobs has the vastly superior offensive environment with similar workload projections as guys like De'Von Achane and Ashton Jeanty, yet goes more than a full round later in early drafts. His RB14, Round 3 price tag is a pretty, pretty, pretty good deal for someone we know will be inside the weekly top 12, barring injury.
Also note: As a longtime sad, troubled, emotionally-damaged MarShawn Lloyd truther … he kinda looks like the No. 2 RB in Green Bay at the moment? The Injury Gods have struck down upon Lloyd with great vengeance and furious anger at every turn of his career, hindering Lloyd's opportunities to showcase his explosive pass-catching ability. That said, Chris Brooks is the man who has been healthy enough to split touches with Emanuel Wilson in past years when Jacobs missed time—a two-back committee in the absence of the Packers' starting RB would be likely. Lloyd is nothing more than a desperate LATE-round handcuff dart throw. Even then, he didn't land too high in my fantasy football handcuff running backs tier list.
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