Keeping Tabs Of Injury Recoveries Impacting Fantasy Football
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Xfinity.
Injuries are truly the kiss of death when it comes to fantasy production.
Dwain McFarland just dropped an epic, must-read piece on the players who were most impacted by injuries in 2025. You should absolutely read the whole thing, but two that stand out:
Brock Bowers (TE, LV): PCL injury (played through early, missed time). > Playing through injury (Weeks 2-4): 8.7 PPG. > Healthy/returned (post-Week 9): 16.6 PPG (+91%)
Emeka Egbuka (WR, TB): Rookie hip/groin/hamstring issues + later role reduction. > First 5 games (healthy): 20.1 PPG (WR3). > After injuries: 7.8 PPG (-61%).
Measuring Injury Risk Before the 2026 Season
If Dwain’s piece doesn’t give you pause on some of the current players dealing with injury concerns—Malik Nabers, Bucky Irving—I don’t know what will.
If you are exclusively a redraft player who drafts later in the summer, this isn’t a huge deal right now. You can sit patiently and wait for more injury updates and concrete timelines.
But for those sick pups drafting in June, it becomes an exercise in risk management.
I’m willing to take risks on players who are cheap—hence my love for guys like George Kittle and Travis Hunter—but I’m way more risk averse when it comes to players going in the Top 50.
The real issue is that these guys aren’t falling enough in drafts. Rice and Nabers are still fixtures of the third round. Jacobs doesn’t slip out of the fourth much, etc.
The pro case for taking the discount is a round and a half of closing-line value.
The downside case is a zero from one of your top 4 picks.
Just let someone else make that bet … it won’t be hard to catch up if news (and health) turn positive.
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It’s been said by more than one fantasy football expert to not draft into injuries, because they will find you soon enough. That’s why waiver wire columns are so popular. But what if in checking in on certain players coming off injuries, and all signs point to that player being healthy—and not coming off surgery—is that a good signal? Fantasy managers could walk that fine line, which in the extreme is what happened with Christian McCaffrey last year. CMC was a big question mark last offseason after playing just four games in 2024, and then all he did was be an ironman averaging 24.3 fantasy points while starting all 17 regular-season games.
This is what Dwain McFarland examined for 2026, the bounceback players and whether they could be had as injury discounts. But deeming certain players as worthy of taking the plunge on them, that’s the golden ticket. One of the players Dwain looked at was Davante Adams and his role that changed as the Rams discovered a new scheme success:
On the one hand, Sean McVay may have embraced three-TE groupings to offset a less-than-100% Adams. On the other hand, it worked, AND the Rams reinforced that commitment in the 2026 NFL Draft, selecting TE Max Klare in Round 2—a signal that heavy TE groupings probably aren't going away.
In games where Adams and Nacua were healthy, Adams posted a 31% route participation rate when the Rams utilized 13 personnel. That is a small sample, so it is hard to say how this would play out over a full season, but it adds risk to Adams' outlook in 2026 even though he was highly efficient with a 4.41 YPRR out of 13 personnel in 2025.
The Detroit Lions scored 481 points (tied for 5th) and had top-5 RB (Jahmyr Gibbs) and WR (Amon-Ra St. Brown) in fantasy football. Plus, Jared Goff finished in the top 10 in QB scoring … again. Yet how did they finish at 9-8 and in fourth place in the NFC North? Oh yeah, that defense thing again. Now for 2026, they have a new OC in Drew Petzing, but the main characters on offense are back except for Knuckles (aka David Montgomery). That should mean big things for the Lions, as Ian Hartitz analyzes the team from a fantasy football perspective. Here are his positional breakdowns:
It starts with a QB in Dak Prescott, who in a normal year throws for 4,500+ yards and 30+ TDs. Then we have an RB (Javonte Williams) who was a pleasant surprise last season with 1,338 total yards and 13 TDs. Cap it off with a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in the dynamic duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Is that fantasy gold mine in Big D the best offense for fantasy football? Make sure to subscribe to the Fantasy Football is Life YouTube page so you don’t miss an episode. ⤵️
