Wonky game scripts, misplaced injury pessimism and a mid-game ankle sprain to Emari Demercado derailed our longshot streams for the first time last week (cue the sad trombone sound). Nevertheless, I’m far from discouraged with the math firmly on our side—defensive EPA/play still rates as my top target for fantasy streaming success.

Give our original piece a quick once-over if you missed it the first time around. Long story short, defensive EPA tests so strongly against fantasy points allowed at QB, RB and WR, it demands attention. Football’s so contextual, it takes a man-plus-machine approach like EPA to capture as much nuance and context as possible.

With these elevated R scores, we’re making it as simple as pie—start at the top of this chart, then work our way down. Notice the Cowboys’ improvement since zooming in to only include the last six weeks to compensate for some injuries, schematic changes, etc.

Hard to lose with the tools we use…

TOP STREAMING QUARTERBACK BY EPA

Bryce Young, CAR at SF

Game-log chasing aside, EPA still points us toward streaming Bryce Young against the Niners—without double-counting Sunday’s ~30 fantasy points in a 123 passer rating, 10.0 YPA outing. With that, Carolina finds themself in a great spot to continue fulfilling the former 1.01’s prophecy against a Niners defense generously described as extremely hobbled.

Stalwarts Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and Mykel Williams all missing from action leave the Niners’ front-seven completely decimated, resulting in nearly unrecognizable defensive macros from San Fran in that timeframe…

SAN FRANCISCO DEFENSE, LAST 6 WEEKS

• 6.1 Yards Allowed/Play: T-31st
• 37.2 Average Drive Distance: 30th
• -0.26 EPA/Dropback: 30th
• 72.1% Completion Rate Allowed: 31st
• 283.7 Passing Yards/Game: Last
• 13 Passing TD: T-31st
• 44.3% Tackle Success: Last

Backing the Panthers to produce on offense two weeks in a row? Uh oh. Bryce Young could be half as good as he was versus Atlanta and still have this pay off. At least the iron’s hot… what could possibly go wrong?

TOP STREAMING RUNNING BACKS BY EPA

David Montgomery, DET vs NYG

Detroit’s two-headed backfield tortured fantasy gamers for years, splitting usage between two RBs consistently finishing in the top-12 together. Well, this year Jahmyr Gibbs’ investors benefited from the obvious talent gap, with Detoit’s first real utilization break in recent memory. Don’t be thrown off by the 60-40 season totals, it’s actually far more compartmentalized than that when split by game script…

If DET’s in a negative/neutral script (either behind or ahead by seven points or less), the backfield belongs to Gibbs—+67% snaps, +65% RB opportunities and +71% red zone touches. Conversely, when the Lions’ go ahead by eight or more, the pendulum swings to David Montgomery more and more with every notch on the scoreboard. Once Dan Campbell goes up double-digits, Montgomery usurps the snap lead—and most importantly, nearly 90% of all goal-to-go carries.

The Giants hung tough against the Pack on Sunday, who lost star RB Josh Jacobs in the process… and still surrendered 27 points in a losing effort. Vegas opened the betting line at 10.5 points, with a real chance to extend as public markets digest the matchup— Jared Goff’s back at home in the climate-controlled environment looking to bounce back for the third place Lions. It’s getting late early for Detroit.

TOP STREAMING WIDE RECEIVERS BY EPA

Mack Hollins, NE (or Kayshon Boutte, NE) vs. CIN

Let me preface my Mack Hollins love this weekend before diving in. Spoiler alert: I’m a doomer who assumes everyone’s in worse shape than admitted, and every coach is lying—it’s served me well over the years. However, for the first time in forever my lack of injury optimism burned me multiple times in a row lately. Thought Brian Thomas would play when he didn’t and the exact opposite for Oronde Gadsden. Oof.

So no, I’m not expecting Kayshon Boutte to return from a hamstring injury next week, despite a couple of limited practices. If he does log even one FP, pivot away from Mack Hollins for Boutte, who’s only 33% rostered and a legitimate deep threat with the ascendent Drake Maye under center (17.1 ADoT, 1.87 yards/route).

With that out of the way, why is WR Mack Hollins only rostered in fewer than five percent of leagues?!? Maybe it’s injury optimism or perhaps too many barefoot pics on social media, but he’s the league’s WR21 over the past month—6.0 targets/game, 23% target/route, 39% explosive catch rate, 2.6 yards/route. Should have been rostered everywhere already, all things considered.

Not only are those solid stats for a streamer on its face, New England’s heading into one of the single softest matchup on the board. Over the last month and a half, the Bengals rank dead last in (takes deep breath)—points allowed/game (35.6), yards/game (445.2), yards/play (7.0), success rate (45.0%), EPA/play (-0.28), EPA/dropback (-0.38), yards after catch/reception (7.6), and passing TD (13). Woof.

One of these guys is going nuts on Sunday…

TOP STREAMING TIGHT END BY RECEPTIONS ALLOWED

Cade Otton, TB at LAR

Being started in roughly 40% of leagues for the past month, Cade Otton’s probably done more waiver wire bye-week roundtrips than anyone in 2025. Likely in line for another ton of drops after posting just 4.8 fantasy points despite the Bucs putting up 32 on the Bills—it’s time to roll the dice on Tampa’s plodding TE once more.

Forget Sunday’s faceplant, Otton’s still reeled in the fifth-most catches at the position since losing Mike Evans and assuming a more prominent role. His point production’s lacked without TDs but honestly, scoring’s so random it’s hard to ding him for it. For reference, had Otton hauled in the lone end-zone target earned, he’d leap from TE15 in that timeframe up to TE10.

Tampa’s coming off a loss as touchdown underdogs with Carolina suddenly breathing down their necks for the division—point being, there should be plenty of pass-catching opportunities. Sean McVay runs almost exclusively zone-reads only, with a league-high 6-DB schematic to keep everything in front of the defense. Expect LAR to invite Otton’s lack of explosivity underneath, which of course we live for as PPR merchants.