Minnesota Vikings QB Competition: Kyler Murray Or J.J. McCarthy?
Kody Malstrom examines the QB1 competition taking place with the Minnesota Vikings between Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy.
In his first year as the starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings, J.J. McCarthy failed to live up to the hype, forcing the organization to turn their sights elsewhere. Enter Kyler Murray, a former 1.01 in the 2019 NFL Draft who was unable to round back into form in his final years with the Arizona Cardinals while dealing with various injuries.
While a one-year signing points toward Murray as the Vikings starting QB heading into 2026, Adam Schefter has pumped the brakes on that notion, reporting it’s a wide open race with McCarthy firmly in contention for the job.
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The Vikings' QB1 Competition: J.J. McCarthy vs Kyler Murray
Let’s rewind back to the 2024 NFL Draft. Fresh off of a shocking pick when the Atlanta Falcons selected Michael Penix at 1.08, the surprises did not stop there with the Minnesota Vikings trading up to take McCarthy at 1.10. At the time, there were mixed reactions with draft analysts oozing over his potential while social media was quick to label him as a bust.
Two years into his career, it looks like McCarthy is trending toward bust status, finishing his first year as a starter ranked near dead last in EPA per Play, CPOE, Bad Throw % and in Pressure to Sack %. While McCarthy did show he is capable of airing out the ball by averaging 6.7 Air Yards/Reception, his highlights were few and far between, halting the Vikings' momentum on offense.
With McCarthy showing no signs of progress, as well as struggling to stay on the field while dealing with injuries, the Vikings have decided to bring in Murray to help inject some life into their offense. When healthy, Murray has been able to play at a competitive level, throwing for over 3,000 yards in years where he played in 14 or more games.
Like McCarthy, health has also plagued the former Cardinals QB, contributing to his eventual dismissal. Luckily for Minnesota, Arizona’s attempt at tanking bodes well for the Vikings hopes of making their return to the playoffs, giving them a productive QB who can elevate their offense.
Who Gets the Start in 2026?
Even when surrounded by a far more underwhelming group of skill players, Murray was able to put together a more productive year, beating out McCarthy in EPA, CPOE, and in Bad Throw %. Murray is also an explosive runner, making the Vikings more versatile, which would help create space for his wideouts when opposing front sevens are forced to stack the box.
While the stats point toward Murray, the Vikings are wise to let the two compete, potentially giving McCarthy the motivation he needs to snap out of his slump. Even if McCarthy fails to win the job, he is still just 23 years old and would only benefit from learning under the veteran.
If Murray is able to show he can stay healthy and lead Minnesota back to the playoffs, then the Vikings can push their chips in on the former No. 1 overall pick and let McCarthy walk at the end of his contract. Should Murray unfortunately suffer another setback, then McCarthy will have another opportunity to prove himself and show why he was worth the investment.
In regard to fantasy, target Kyler Murray in the later rounds in re-draft and best ball drafts, giving you a potential starter at a cheap discount. With Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings surrounding him, Murray is certainly in a position to thrive with our fantasy football projections expecting the Vikings QB to throw for 3,497 yards and 21.7 touchdowns, while adding another 487.4 yards and 4.0 touchdowns on the ground.
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