After spending much of the fantasy football offseason working with our projection model and crafting my rankings, I wanted to put my convictions to the test—and there is no better way of doing that than jumping into real drafts. While I don't have hundreds of fantasy drafts under my belt like Peter Overzet, I have plunked my hard-earned dollars 36 times so far in the best-ball streets.

Today, we will review some of my most-drafted players at each position and discuss why I am so high on these particular options in 2025.

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 31% Exposure

The Jacksonville signal caller hasn't lived up to his billing as the No. 1 selection in the 2021 NFL Draft. However, he delivered QB8 and QB12 finishes in his last two healthy seasons in 2022 and 2023, averaging 247 rushing yards and 19 rushing yards per game.

While no one will mistake Lawrence for one of the elite dual-threat options, he offers upside as a passer and rusher, which are the archetypes we want to target actively. Will he challenge Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson for the QB1 finish? Probably not. However, if he hits his ceiling as a passer and rusher in the same season, he could push for 4,500 yards through the air and 400 yards on the ground.

Based on our ceiling-floor model, Lawrence offers a ceiling of 22.9 points per game in a pure runout. Yes, that would be a significant improvement over his previous high of 18.6 in 2022. Still, it isn't an unrealistic stretch in an offense with premier playmakers in Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. Expect new head coach, Liam Coen, to centralize his offense around the duo, in hopes of helping Lawrence catapult his production to new heights like he did with Baker Mayfield (22.6 points per game) in 2024.

Lawrence is my QB14, but falls to QB19 in Underdog drafts, making him hard to resist, especially given how often I draft Travis Hunter (read on).

Kyler Murray | Cardinals | 17% Exposure

The QB8 price tag on Murray is much higher than Lawrence's, but he also offers more upside as a rusher. Variance is a significant aspect of fantasy football, and our ceiling-floor model helps ensure we don't forget that. While many of you may have Kyler fatigue—I was there as well after last season—the bottom line is he offers the sixth-highest ceiling (24.1 points per game) in our model.

I have Murray projected for 227 yards per game, but the variance logic puts 251 within his high-end range. On the ground, I have Murray projected for 33 yards, and the logic gives him a ceiling of 44. How many QBs offer a chance at 4,200 passing yards and 700 on the ground? Not many. Interestingly, we have already seen what a Murray double-spike season looks like. In 2020, he averaged 248 yards passing with 51 rushing yards, locking in 24.9 fantasy points per game as the QB3.

With a step forward from Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride already dominating, it isn't hard to imagine a world where Murray averages 250 passing yards rather than 227 like last year. Don't forget, sometimes we don't even need a reason—variance happens, and Murray has the raw ingredients few QBs offer.

Given Murray's QB10 and QB11 finishes over the last two years, he is a small-miss-big-hit type of pick. He is my QB10 in the Fantasy Life rankings, and he is a Round 8 selection in early drafts.

I need more: I wish I had more Jalen Hurts, but drafts just haven't fallen my way. He is a smash selection in Round 5 of early drafts. Drafters are overconfident in the Eagles' remaining as run-heavy as they were in 2024 (48% dropback rate). Teams rarely duplicate that sort of dropback rate, even if they remain committed to the run in the following season.

Running Backs

Jaylen Wright | Dolphins | 28% Exposure

The second-year back notched 10-plus yards on 12% of his totes as a rookie, but playing time was limited with De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. Now, with Mostert playing for the Raiders, Wright steps into the No. 2 role in an offense perfectly designed for his home-run hitting ability (4.38 40-yard dash). Don't forget that the Dolphins sent their 2025 third-round pick to move up in the fourth round of the 2024 draft to select Wright.

Wright goes 10 to 25 picks after options like Trey Benson, Isaac Guerendo, and Tyler Allgeier, which makes him a value. If any one of those backs sees their starter go down, the price delta won't matter—they will pay off. I am still drafting them, but often tacking on Wright as well. The Dolphins did select Ollie Gordon II, which could have drafters feeling a little more uncertain about Wright's role, but Gordon was a Round 6 selection.

Wright is my most drafted running back, thanks to a price lower than his comparisons, and massive contingent of upside should he need to step in for De'Von Achane.

TreVeyon Henderson | Patriots | 19% Exposure

I have New England's second-round pick projected for a split workload with Rhamondre Stevenson, which makes him a risky volume play. However, given Henderson's profile (my No. 3 RB in the class), a massive workload might not be necessary for him to pay fantasy dividends immediately.

The former Buckeye is an explosive playmaker on a team void of big-play talent, which should make him a priority option when on the field. At Ohio State, he busted 17% of his attempts for 10-plus yards and flashed upside in the receiving game when given opportunities. Henderson garnered a 77 rating in the Rookie Super Model, which bodes well for his future success.

Since 2017, 28 backs have posted a similar score in the model and 52% of them notched a top-12 RB finish within their first three years, and 76% finished inside the top 24. While Stevenson is a capable back, don't be shocked if Henderson wedges out an immediate role and expands his wallet share on touches as the season progresses. Henderson could finish the 2025 campaign in a similar fashion to De'Von Achane in 2023 and Bucky Irving in 2024.

Henderson is a Round 6 selection in early drafts as the RB21 off the board and is my most-drafted RB inside the first 10 rounds. He carries a ceiling of 15.6 points per game in the ceiling floor model.

I need more: De'Von Achane is on 11% of my teams, which is higher than the 8% chance of drafting him in a 12-team draft. However, he offers the fourth-highest ceiling of any RB in our ceiling-floor model at 22.9 points. Achane offers the perfect blend of pass-catching and homerun-hitting ability that can break fantasy leagues.

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Wide Receivers

Travis Hunter | Jaguars | 39% Exposure

My process is very talent-centric, and despite the potential for playing-time challenges, Hunter's upside scenario keeps me coming back for more. He grades out as the fifth-best WR all-time in the Rookie Super Model with a rating of 93 and has the top mark in the class.

I have Tetairoa McMillan ranked ahead in my rookie and season-long rankings, but Hunter's comparisons in the model have notched top-24 finishes 80% of the time by Year 3, and 30% have turned into WR1s. At the price of WR30 in early drafts, that is a bet I am willing to make. 

I only have Hunter projected for a 78% route participation, much lower than the 90%+ we often see from players of his caliber. Still, the ceiling-floor model projects an upside of 17.5 points per game, which would thrust him into the top 12 receivers as a rookie. Expect Hunter to receive plenty of looks when he is on the field in an offense that should consolidate around Brian Thomas Jr. and Hunter.

There is some boom-bust to his profile, but I like Hunter's chances to pay off as a low-end WR2 with WR1 upside. Other WRs going in his range carry similar bust concerns, but they don't carry the same pedigree.

Emeka Egbuka | Buccaneers | 36% Exposure

Tampa has a crowded WR room, which could challenge Egbuka in a way similar to what Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Rome Odunze dealt with as rookies. Still, it's hard not to like the Ohio State product at his WR48 price—we have seen 56% of his Rookie Super Model comps notch a top-24 campaign in their first three years and 19% climbed into the top 12.

While Egbuka isn't a player we probably won't want in our early-season lineups, he has a lot of reasonable outs that could make him a highly valuable fantasy asset as the season progresses.

1. The Bucs offense could go nuclear and utilize 3WR sets as their base personnel.
2. Chris Godwin could struggle early as he recovers from a dislocated ankle.
3. Mike Evans will be 32 this year, and cliff years can come abruptly.

Egbuka's median projection (9.7) isn't going to get fantasy managers excited, but football is a game of chaos his ceiling scenario (14.0) is probably higher than most will guess.

Tight Ends

George Kittle | 49ers | 14% Exposure

Kittle averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game last year—the most for the position. Now he plays in an offense without Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk is recovering from an ACL/MCL injury that could sideline him well into the season.

Kittle delivered a 21% target share last season along with the third-highest Utilization Score (88) at the position. 

He will be 32 this year, but the veteran tight end demonstrated considerable target-earning upside in consolidated offenses early in his career.

• 2018: 24% targets, 26% targets per route run (TPRR), 16.0 PPG
• 2019: 25% targets, 31% TPRR, 15.9 PPG
• 2020: 22% targets, 28% TPRR, 15.6 PPG

During that time period, Kittle's yards per route run (YPRR) looked more like Julio Jones than a tight end with marks 2.82, 3.12, and 2.84. Last season he notched a juicy 2.62 YPRR. If Kittle approaches a 23 to 24% target share with Brock Purdy, we could get a massive spike season. While we love Brock Bowers and Trey McBride, Kittle has the skillset to attack more layers of the field and is a yards-after-the-catch machine.

Age and injuries are the largest concerns with Kittle. He has missed two, one, and two games over the last three seasons. Given his upside, I am okay taking on a little risk which is offset by his Round 4 price versus Round 2 and 3 for Bowers and McBride.

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