“It’s not you, it’s me.”

This breakup cliché is an all-timer. Whenever I hear it, I want to throw popcorn at my screen. And at the same time, I know what’s coming next. Something like a “win-them-back” sequence with a triumphant ending, typically. Regardless, the actions stemming from the statement come from the assumption that the person receiving the bad news is at fault.

But sometimes both people can be in the wrong.

So when I think about worst-case scenarios for rookies, I’m not only placing the blame on the team. There are only so many ways I can make fun of the Browns or Jets anyway. But a bad fit doesn’t always indicate organizational malpractice. In some cases, their skill set doesn’t match how the team operates, which would put everyone, including fantasy gamers, in a tough spot.

Worst Landing Spots for NFL Draft 2026 Prospects

Running Backs

Jonah Coleman, Washington

• Expected Draft Position: Round 3, Day 3
• Projected Team(s): Broncos, Seahawks
• “Worst” Spot: Vikings

I see the idea for Jonah Coleman as a Viking. Stick him behind soon-to-be 32-year-old Aaron Jones. The former Huskie would instantly outrank Jordan Mason, who has one more active year on his contract. In other words, let’s wait for Coleman to be the RB1 in ’27. But if the Kevin O’Connell era has shown us anything, it’s that his offense prefers a type.

And no, this isn’t recency bias. Since KOC came to Minnesota, only two RBs have handled more than 200 carries for his offense: Dalvin Cook and Aaron Jones. Meanwhile, from Alexander Mattison to Jordan Mason, the benefits of “the RB1 missing time” were worth investing at RB2/3 prices, but the floor was the ceiling if the true RB1 was active.

• Without Jones (Weeks 3-7): 71% (Rushing Rate), 50% (Route Rate), 60% (Two-Minute Snaps)
• With Jones: 33%, 15%, 0%

Coleman has more potential than succumbing to the typecast of just a short-yardage grinder. Plus, his ability to earn targets—mostly dump-offs, but we’ll take them—belies something more than just a limited rusher. So while I can see the initial hype, I’d rather see Coleman with a legitimate shot to start if he continues to develop as a runner.

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Mike Washington, Arkansas

• Expected Draft Position: Rounds 2-3
• Projected Team(s): Seahawks, Jaguars
• “Worst” Spot: Falcons

Imagine all that speed in Atlanta. Mike Washington, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts? And Tua Tagovailoa under center? It’d be the lite version of the ’23 Dolphins. But I’ll add some realism before you start drooling over this theoretical roster.

• 2025: 63% (Rushing Rate), 20% (Target Share), 48% (i5 Rate)
• 2024: 64%, 14%, 71%
• 2023 (Rookie Season): 45%, 17%, 20%

We knew Robinson had an RB1 skill set since his days at Texas. He’s been as much to the Falcons over the last two years. Said another way, Washington should be a complement to the current 1.01 in drafts to get playing time. And here’s where the New York native falls short.

Let’s say you want to slot in Washington as the RB in obvious passing situations. But, as Dwain noted, none of the three programs he played for saw fit to feature him as a receiving option. And his pass protection is forcing more questions than answers. Let’s give him a (developmental and on-field) runway to showcase his talent versus pining for more Robinson touches in Atlanta.

Wide Receivers

Omar Cooper, Indiana

• Expected Draft Position: Late Round 1
• Projected Team(s): Panthers, Raiders
• “Worst” Spot: Eagles

Let me piece together a snapshot of what Omar Cooper could be in the NFL.

The good folks at Reception Perception highlighted Cooper’s usage on in-breaking routes, and our team underscored his shift to the interior during his final season. With a lowered aDOT (9.7 air yards), the Deebo Samuel and DJ Moore comps start to make sense. But then pairing him with Jalen Hurts takes everything out of frame.

• MoF Throw Rate: 39.1%, 28th (out of 29 QBs, min. 300 dropbacks)
• EPA per MoF Att.: 0.26, 16th

Look, I’m not here for the Hurts passing-acumen debate. But I will point out strengths and limitations regarding Philly’s QB1. And maximizing a route runner who can create after the catch isn’t one of them. His MoF throw rate hasn’t changed in three years, and his efficiency on those throws has been coordinator-dependent. There’s a reason the Eagles haven’t ranked any higher than 17th in YAC since ’22. And drafting Cooper isn’t going to change the situation.

KC Concepcion, Texas A&M

• Expected Draft Position: Late Round 1
• Projected Team(s): Seahawks, Giants
• “Worst” Spot: Steelers

Real quick. I’m changing my name to CA Allen to mimic KC Concepcion’s style. I’m going to give it a one-week test run.

OK, so let’s focus on Concepcion as a player, and not just some guy with a cool name. Analysts have the Texas A&M product billed as an all-around player. His +80% slot rate at NC State would have him pigeonholed as an interior-only receiver, but OC Holmon Wiggins moved him all around the formation. And at 7.2 YAC per reception (at 12.3 air yards per attempt!), defenses paid the price. But here’s why I’d want to see Concepcion in any color scheme other than black and yellow.

• DK Metcalf: 6-foot-4, 230 pounds
• Michael Pittman Jr.: 6-foot-4, 223 pounds

Let’s say the Steelers get back to using 11-personnel groupings more often (31st in the NFL last year). The size disparity between Concepcion and his theoretical teammates would have him in the slot more often than not. And the chance to make plays downfield? Aaron Rodgers tied with Cam Ward in deep-ball rate last season. Admittedly, his options likely drove the decision, but adding Concepcion to the mix would only stifle his growth as a full player, not maximize it.

Update: My wife told me my new name is ridiculous, and I have to change it back.

Ted Hurst, Georgia State

• Expected Draft Position: Day 3
• Projected Team(s): Commanders, Chiefs
• “Worst” Spot: Packers

A story in two pieces of content. Part 1:

Part 2:

“He was a boundary WR playing wide 83% of snaps and had a career aDOT of 14.6 (69th percentile). His 4.6 YAC was -0.2 over expected after adjusting for aDOT.”

Again, I want to build a quick profile to emphasize player strengths to show how they contrast with the potential landing spot. The takeaway from the clip and Hurst’s analytical write-up shouldn’t be that he can’t operate in the short area of the field. However, his speed, body control, and contested-catch ability would be selling points for any OC to nurture. But Green Bay already has a guy who checks most of those boxes on the team.

I can see the Packers’ fans looking to fill in the loss of Romeo Doubs with a Hurst-like receiver. But there was more nuance to Doubs than just his pre-snap alignment. Drake Maye’s newest weapon ran timing routes on 59% of his plays over the last three seasons. It’s part of why Doubs ranks 13th out of 42 perimeter receivers since 2023 in first downs per route run. So, unless Hurst has some high-end footwork to go with his speed, the Packers would have a redundant asset on their hands versus someone who could round out their pass-catching corps.

Tight End

Eli Stowers, Vanderbilt

• Expected Draft Position: Day 2
• Projected Team(s): Ravens, Broncos
• “Worst” Spot: Cowboys

Honestly, Dallas isn’t the only bad fit, but I’ll use them as a categorical franchise to make my point. Because Eli Stowers amassing 202 targets across three seasons as a TE won’t be the issue. The problem is his lack of reps as a pass blocker (17 per PFF). All of which puts him on the track to No Man’s Land should he wind up under the wrong coaching regime. But, for the sake of argument, let’s play out Jerry Jones giving Stowers a call on Day 2.

• Jake Ferguson (’23-’25): 25.1% (In-Line Snap Rate), 34.5% (Slot Rate), 5.3% (Pass Block Rate)
• Dalton Schultz (’20-’22): 21.8%, 27.0%, 8.6%

From Jason Witten to Dalton Schultz to Jake Ferguson, the need for the Cowboys’ TE to have some pass-blocking chops has lessened but not gone away. And along with their need to maintain continuity along the offensive line, removing protective support for Dak Prescott in exchange for another pass-catching option won’t sell. Especially with the team tagging George Pickens, who hit career highs in yards and TDs.

So while Stowers has the play-making ability to elevate an offense, his on-field limitations as a blocker aren’t congruent with the Cowboys’ short-term plans of trying to play meaningful football in January. A better fit would be a team that either recognizes his potential as a receiver only or can give him the time to build up his blocking chops.

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