
Ian Hartitz breaks down personnel and schematic trends through two weeks of NFL preseason action and how they'll affect fantasy football in 2024.

The preseason might not "matter", but it definitely "matters". You know what I mean?
While utilization takeaways definitely constitute the most fantasy-relevant data from any and all preseason action, play-calling and personnel trends can also be interesting when juxtaposed against constant drumbeats of intel out of training camp. Team X might tell the media they want to throw downfield more often or utilize extra pre-snap motion, but are they actually doing so when the lights are on?
This leads us to today's goal: Breaking down seven early trends from the preseason that resonate with personnel or schematic changes from this offseason. Special thanks to the fine folks at PFF and TruMedia for the following advanced data.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
11 personnel signifies formations that feature only one TE and RB on the field. While Waldron initially worked as the Rams' passing game coordinator from 2018 to 2020 under noted three-WR-lover Sean McVay, his last three seasons with the Seahawks featured more two-TE formations than certain fantasy managers would have liked:
Seahawks 11 personnel usage:
The latter year was particularly annoying because the Seahawks had just spent a first-round pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba … and now it looks like the same business is going down in Chicago despite the presence of a truly great trio of WRs in DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen.
Right now it looks like Odunze is the odd man out: Moore and Allen posted 100% route participation rates during the second week of the preseason, while the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 9 overall pick slipped to 68%.
Things can always change – particularly if the team's allegedly overweight 32-year-old veteran continues to underwhelm – but for now prospective Odunze fantasy managers should brace themselves to see a bit more Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett than anyone would prefer.
The Kliff Kingsbury experience has been on full display through eight quarters of preseason action:
Not all of these things are necessarily bad: Hopkins went for 115-1,407-6 during his lone full season with the Cardinals, and the fast pace played a role in guys like Kyler Murray and James Conner putting up plenty of fantasy goodness over the years.
Still, we accordingly haven't seen Jayden Daniels take many "real" dropbacks just yet, and at a minimum it's clear Kingsbury didn't exactly rewrite his playbook during his sabbatical in Thailand.
Quite the improvement for a group that finished 28th (0.9) in 2023 and 31st (0.9) in 2022.
Of course, dominance at the line of scrimmage isn't anything new for renowned run-game expert Greg Roman, who has helped scheme up great rushing attacks for virtually his entire career:
Yes, plenty of those offenses benefited from their dual-threat QBs providing a gravity effect on defensive linemen in the read option game. Also yes, Roman and Jim Harbaugh have been no strangers to running the damn ball over the years, and the early returns look good!
Now if only we could figure out exactly who will get the most work between Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins and Kimani Vidal, who made the most out of his opportunities against the Rams last Saturday. The money certainly leans toward Gus Bus, and he's accordingly the highest-ranked Chargers RB by our Fantasy Life team of expert rankers at the moment.
Last year's Eagles offense was the league's most stationary pre-snap group (31.4%). A quick look at the NFL's reigning top-five units demonstrates the reality that most of the league's top offenses make a habit of attempting to confuse opposing defenses before the snap:
Of course, new Eagles OC Kellen Moore was in charge of the latter unit, leading to plenty of offseason chatter about Philly utilizing this feature a bit more in 2024. So far not so good, although the offense's shift/motion rate did increase from 14.1% to 29.8% during the first two weeks of the preseason.
Look, the Eagles also ranked last in shift/motion rate in 2022 (36.2%) … and they ranked third in scoring on their way to a 38-35 Super Bowl loss. It's not like their more stationary system hasn't returned great results over the years. It's also possible that Moore is simply waiting for the regular season to fully show his hand – the Lions (49.6%, 14th) are an example of a team that hasn't utilized much pre-snap shift/motion this preseason after heavily leaning on it last year, and I'm certainly not expecting them to suddenly abandon this feature of their offense in 2024.
Still, this Eagles offense scored 21 or fewer points in six of their last nine games in 2023 seemingly in large part to how predictable they became down the stretch. Failure to keep defenses a bit more on their toes in 2024 could (again) make life more difficult than it probably needs to be for all parties involved.
There have been plenty of examples in recent years of bad preseason offensive lines improving once the games matter, but I was honestly surprised by how many porous groups have stayed rather bad.
The issues here come down to the reality that neither o-line really exactly deserves the benefit of the doubt at the moment. PFF ranked both the Browns (22nd) and Jaguars (27th) offensive lines lowly in their final 2023 ranks, and while the former (4th) is being thought of far higher than the latter (23rd) in their 2024 ranks thanks to expected better injury luck, that certainly hasn't been the case so far, and it's possible the loss of longtime offensive line coach Bill Callahan is a bigger deal than expected.
It'd make sense if performance improves once the starters are healthier and playing more (funny how that works). That said: Failure for these units to elevate their performance in the regular season won't help either team's underperforming franchise QBs stay upright.
It'd also be tough to be overly optimistic about the league's reigning 26th (Browns) and 30th (Jags) ranked rushing attacks in yards per carry taking meaningful steps forward.
This comes as a bit of a surprise considering the team's lowly ranking in play-action rate (20.2%, 29th) and shift/motion rate (48%, 25th) during the first four seasons of the Joe Burrow era. Now, the team has entertained the thought of expanding the offense as recently as last offseason, but that didn't lead to any discernible increases in preseason usage.
While Burrow tends to prefer a static pre-snap setup (a la Peyton Manning), new offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher could perhaps look to lean into this feature a bit more now that he's taken over for new Titans head coach Brian Callahan. Throw in a (hopefully) healthier Burrow and offensive line, and you have a talented offense that could be poised to make life even tougher than usual on opposing defenses in 2024.
Jones racked up a whopping four passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield in just one half of football last Saturday – a mark that he's matched in just two of 22 regular season starts over the past two years.
This is consistent with what we've heard out of Giants camp and matches what the offense should be trying to do with a trio of good-to-great field-stretching talents in Malik Nabers, Darius Slayton, and Jalin Hyatt.
A similar sentiment in Kansas City has been true and is reflected by adding speedy WRs Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown this offseason: Mahomes' average target depth has increased from a league-low 6.8 yards to 7.6 in limited preseason action. This is still fairly low relative to the gunslinger we saw earlier in his career; just realize Andy Reid's offseason chatter about having more pass-catchers capable of winning downfield doesn't seem to have fallen on mute ears.