Patrick Mahomes Injury Update For Fantasy Football: All Systems Go For The HOF QB
Matt LaMarca breaks down Patrick Mahomes' fantasy football outlook for 2026 in the midst of his ACL recovery.
It’s fair to say that no NFL quarterback has burst onto the scene in the same way as Patrick Mahomes. He won the MVP award in his first season as a full-time starter, and he added his second four years later. Mahomes has also won games at an unparalleled rate, making it to seven straight AFC Championship games from 2018 through 2025. He made five trips to the Super Bowl during that stretch and ultimately took home three Lombardi Trophies. Ultimately, he’s already one of the greatest QBs to ever take the field, and he could put himself in the GOAT conversation if he keeps it up.
However, Mahomes hasn’t been quite as dominant in recent years. Even though he’s still managed to win a bunch of games, his statistics have dipped significantly. He averaged 4,791 yards and 38.4 touchdown passes in his first five years as a starter, compared to just 3,899 yards and 25.0 touchdown passes across his past three.
Now, Mahomes will have to come back from a torn ACL suffered in December of last season. What is his current timeline for return, and what will he look like when he gets back? Let’s dive in.
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Injury Update For Patrick Mahomes
A torn ACL used to be an injury that would sideline players for at least a year. However, that has changed in recent years. Players have been able to return quicker, and Mahomes appears to be on that track.
The most recent updates about Mahomes have all been glowing. He has reportedly “attacked” his rehab with the intention of suiting up for the first game next season. Andy Reid has stated that he won’t bet against Mahomes being back for Week 1, and there is nothing currently to suggest that won’t happen.
We should get more definitive updates for Mahomes throughout training camp, but for fantasy purposes, it’s fair to operate under the assumption that he can play a full season.
Patrick Mahomes 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook
The bigger question is what version of Mahomes will we see next season? Adding a significant knee injury to his already declining statistics provides plenty of reason for skepticism for the upcoming season.
That said, Mahomes did have a bit of a bounce-back campaign before getting injured last year. He averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game, which was tied with Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford for the second-best mark at quarterback. From Weeks 1 through 13, only Josh Allen amassed more fantasy points at the position.
While that’s definitely encouraging, how Mahomes racked up those points raises some red flags. Mahomes was playing with one of the worst rushing attacks in football, so he was forced to put the entire offense on his shoulders. That meant using his legs much more than we’ve seen in years past. He averaged a career-high 30.1 rushing yards per game, and he also punched in a career-best five touchdowns. Ultimately, his production with his arm was in line with his numbers over the previous two seasons, when he finished as QB11 and QB8 for fantasy purposes.
With the team adding Kenneth Walker this offseason, Mahomes shouldn’t have to do nearly as much on his own next season. The team was tied for first in Dropback Over Expectation in Mahomes’ 14 games last year, and it’s possible they have a bit more of a balanced attack in 2026-27.
Ultimately, Mahomes stands out as a clear “third-tier” fantasy QB in our 2026 fantasy football rankings. He’s no longer a clear stud at the position, and he’s fallen behind the young QBs with rushing upside as well. Guys like Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams and Jaxson Dart all offer significantly more upside than Mahomes at this point. As crazy as it sounds for one of the best QBs of all time, Mahomes should be among the last starters drafted in one-QB leagues this offseason, regardless of how well his rehab has gone.
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