Last week, I wrote a piece on one player from all 32 NFL teams I want to draft in fantasy football for 2025.

Naturally, I'm now doing a piece on one player I'm fading from each team.

Players To Avoid At Their Current Cost In Fantasy Football

Here's the thing: I don't like saying publicly that I'm fading a guy.

The Power of Pessimism

As someone who has been lucky enough to be a full-time writer in the space for almost a decade, I can say this from experience: If you say that you "like" a guy and he underperforms, you don't get nearly the negative feedback you do if you say that you "dislike" a guy and he goes off.

If fanbases feel that you "hate" their guys and then they have monster performances, they will remind you of your mistake. For years.

So I've learned that there's little to be gained—at least for me—in focusing on my least favorite players. That's why I prefer to write about the guys I like. Example: "Freedman's Favorites for 2025."

But I also believe that most fantasy players—and humans in general—benefit most by focusing on the negative: That which they should avoid.

If you want to stay alive, what's more beneficial?

• Knowing where there's gold.
• Knowing where there are landmines.

The answer is apparent.

Years ago at FantasyLabs, I wrote about the importance of strong inference, and I still believe that "falsification" (aka, "the scientific method") is just as crucial in winning fantasy as it is in creating knowledge.

In fantasy, you can get pretty far—to the playoffs for sure, and sometimes all the way to a championship—merely by avoiding the guys who underperform expectations.

So here are the guys I believe carry outsized downside (relative to their ADPs) for 2025 fantasy football.

Note: All referenced ADP is Underdog, via our Fantasy Life ADP Tool (as of Wed. 6/18). For my 2025 fantasy football rankings (applicable for best ball, redraft, and Guillotine Leagues), as well as my 2025 fantasy football projections, check out our FantasyLife+ package.

Arizona Cardinals - WR Marvin Harrison

• ADP: WR15 (26.4 overall)
• Projection: WR21 (185.4 points)

I usually want overweight exposure to second-year players (especially those who underwhelm as rookies), but Marvin Harrison is unlikely to get more targets than stud TE Trey McBride, and the offense still goes through RB James Conner. Harrison's ceiling feels capped.

Atlanta Falcons - WR Drake London

• ADP: WR9 (15.1)
• Projection: WR23 (176.2)

Last year, Drake London had his long-awaited breakout (1,271 yards receiving), but this year, he's being drafted as if the 39 targets he saw in QB Michael Penix's three end-of-season starts will extrapolate across a full season now. Here's the problem: That sample's small, those games were against the subpar pass defenses of the Giants, Commanders, and Panthers, and two of them went into OT.

Baltimore Ravens - TE Isaiah Likely

• ADP: TE17 (144.6)
• Projection: TE21 (100.4)

In 18 games last year, he had more than five targets just twice, and starting in Week 5—when starter Mark Andrews returned to form—Isaiah Likely ranked No. 29 at the position with a 5.5 Utilization Score (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report). If Andrews or one of the starting WRs doesn't suffer an injury, Likely's week-to-week value will be mainly minimal.

Buffalo Bills - QB Josh Allen

• ADP: QB1 (34.0)
• Projection: QB2 (374.0)

As the reigning MVP, Josh Allen is elite, but he has little room to outperform his overall ADP, he has only modest support from his pass catchers, and the three QBs immediately trailing him in ADP—Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts—all could finish the season with comparable (if not superior) production. Even for a luxury item, Allen feels a tad too expensive.

Carolina Panthers - RB Chuba Hubbard

• ADP: RB17 (55.1)
• Projection: RB24 (170.2)

Chuba Hubbard had 1,366 scrimmage yards in 2024, but this offseason the team added veteran Rico Dowdle (1,328 yards last year with Cowboys) and rookie Trevor Etienne (No. 114, 4.42-second 40-yard dash). Hubbard's workhorse role is at risk.

Chicago Bears - TE Colston Loveland

• ADP: TE10 (125.8)
• Projection: TE18 (109.2)

He was just selected No. 10 overall, but Colston Loveland still needs to compete for targets with veteran TE Cole Kmet (as well as WRs DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Luther Burden and RB D'Andre Swift), and he's not certain to be fully ready for the start of training camp because of his shoulder injury.

Cincinnati Bengals - WR Tee Higgins

• ADP: WR12 (23.5)
• Projection: WR16 (194.7)

I'm not fully fading Tee Higgins—because he's a near-elite player—but I also can't ignore that he's missed 13 games over the past four years and is firmly behind all-world No. 1 WR Ja'Marr Chase in target priority.

Cleveland Browns - QB Shedeur Sanders

• ADP: QB33 (214.7)
• Projection: QB35 (45.7) 

I'm high on the Browns offense and not desirous to fade anyone on it—but it's not hard to find reasons to fade Shedeur Sanders: The Browns didn't select him until Day 3, he's unlikely to start the season over veteran Joe Flacco (2023 CPOY with Browns), and HC Kevin Stefanski seemed less than enthusiastic when the team selected Sanders.

Dallas Cowboys - TE Brevyn Spann-Ford

• ADP: TE37 (216.0)
• Projection: TE73 (13.4)

This is my way of saying I'm not actually fading anyone on the Cowboys—but, also, no one should have this guy on any fantasy team. The only way he'll get 250 yards receiving is if some unfortunate We Are Marshall tragedy were to occur. That Brevyn Spann-Ford even has an ADP is absurd.

Denver Broncos - RB RJ Harvey

• ADP: RB19 (58.8)
• Projection: RB31 (137.8)

The recent addition of veteran J.K. Dobbins is unfortunate, and RJ Harvey has a subpar 72 rating in Dwain McFarland's 2025 Rookie RB Super Model. He might be the No. 2 option in a backfield that seems destined to be a committee.

Detroit Lions - TE Sam LaPorta

• ADP: TE4 (72.4)
• Projection: TE8 (140.9)

I like Sam LaPorta … but last year he was the fifth-most productive non-QB skill-position player in an offense that lost playcaller Ben Johnson this offseason.

Green Bay Packers - TE Tucker Kraft

• ADP: TE13 (135.1)
• Projection: TE19 (105.7)

I think the return of No. 2 TE Luke Musgrave and the addition of No. 1 WR Matthew Golden will squeeze Tucker Kraft, who's likely to experience negative regression anyway from last year's outlier-ish marks of 10.1 yards per target and 10% TD rate.

Houston Texans - WR Jayden Higgins

• ADP: WR52 (97.5)
• Projection: WR75 (85.5)

The rookie has long-term potential as a perimeter playmaker, but in the short term, Jayden Higgins still needs to compete for targets with veteran WRs Nico Collins and Christian Kirk and TE Dalton Schultz. 

Indianapolis Colts - TE Tyler Warren

• ADP: TE11 (126.1)
• Projection: TE28 (86.6)

The dual-threat receiver/runner skill set Tyler Warren has is intriguing, but he faces significant target competition from WRs Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell, and he's unlikely to steal numerous goal-line opportunities from RB Jonathan Taylor. On top of that, the entire pass offense could be bogged down if QB Anthony Richardson makes starts.

Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Travis Hunter

• ADP: WR26 (45.1)
• Projection: WR43 (145.8)

As great as Travis Hunter was as a Biletnikoff Award-winning pass catcher in college (96-1,258-15 receiving last year), he, as a rookie, will almost certainly play behind No. 1 WR Brian Thomas, and the Jaguars offense probably won't have enough juice to support two high-end receivers. On top of that, Hunter's defensive duties might hinder his offensive workload.

Kansas City Chiefs - WR Xavier Worthy

• ADP: WR22 (40.2)
• Projection: WR30 (161.7)

WRs Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown are now both healthy, No. 1 TE Travis Kelce is still hanging on, and No. 2 TE Noah Gray gets a lot of playing time. All of that means that Xavier Worthy might play fewer snaps and see fewer targets this year.

Las Vegas Raiders - RB Ashton Jeanty

• ADP: RB5 (10.4)
• Projection: RB10 (213.3)

As I noted in my piece on the season-long projections that surprise me, Ashton Jeanty is talented, but the betting market has the Raiders slated for just seven wins, and there are only so many opportunities and TDs I can reasonably project for a rookie RB on a mediocre team.

Los Angeles Chargers - QB Justin Herbert

• ADP: QB16 (125.5)
• Projection: QB22 (266.9)

With the offseason additions of RBs Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris, the Chargers seem likely to play slowly and lean on the running game. That will limit the number of opportunities Justin Herbert has to put up fantasy points.

Los Angeles Rams - TE Terrance Ferguson

• ADP: TE30 (210.3)
• Projection: TE47 (34.8)

Even if Terrance Ferguson overtakes veterans Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson on the TE depth chart, he will still be behind WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams and probably RB Kyren Williams in target priority.  

Miami Dolphins - K Jason Sanders

• ADP: NA
• Projection: NA

Honestly, I don't want to fade any of the skill-position players on the Dolphins. And we all know that kickers aren't people.

Minnesota Vikings - WR Justin Jefferson

• ADP: WR2 (3.1)
• Projection: WR8 (219.6)

The Vikings won't need to pass as much because their defense is improved, they might opt to run more anyway because of QB J.J. McCarthy's NFL inexperience, and they won't need to force the ball to Justin Jefferson because of how good No. 2 WR Jordan Addison and TE T.J. Hockenson are. He should go in Round 1, but in the top three is aggressive.

New England Patriots - RB TreVeyon Henderson

• ADP: RB21 (64.9)
• Projection: RB38 (122.3)

You might see that the Patriots drafted RB TreVeyon Henderson in Round 2 and think, "That means he's a workhorse." Tell that to Shane Vereen (2011) and Kevin Faulk (1999), who are literally the only other RBs the Patriots have drafted in Round 2 since owner Robert Kraft bought the team in 1994. I expect Henderson to be a change-of-pace option.

New Orleans Saints - WR Bub Means

• ADP: WR100 (216.0)
• Projection: WR140 (18.5)

I had to dig deep to find someone on the Saints I don't want, but that's part of the point: I'm relatively bullish on WRs Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Brandin Cooks. I don't think Bub Means will overtake any of them.

New York Giants - RB Cam Skattebo

• ADP: RB33 (103.9)
• Projection: RB43 (104.8)

Starter Tyrone Tracy had 1,123 yards and six TDs on 192 carries and 53 targets as a rookie last year, and the Giants just drafted Cam Skattebo on Day 3. That Skattebo has the higher ADP strikes me as peak “Rookie Derangement Syndrome.”

New York Jets - WR Garrett Wilson

• ADP: WR14 (26.0)
• Projection: WR32 (161.3)

QB Justin Fields is not a WR's best friend, and OC Tanner Engstrand is a first-time NFL playcaller. This could go poorly.

Philadelphia Eagles - RB Saquon Barkley

• ADP: RB1 (2.9)
• Projection: RB4 (242.1)

Ever heard of the Madden Curse? Also, why would I draft Barkley when Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Christian McCaffrey are all available later?

Pittsburgh Steelers - K Chris Boswell

• ADP: NA
• Projection: NA

He had an NFL-high 41 field goals last year, but he won't this year.

San Francisco 49ers - WR Brandon Aiyuk

• ADP: WR46 (84.4)
• Projection: WR64 (104.9)

Recovering from a torn ACL and MCL, Brandon Aiyuk is uncertain to be ready for the start of the season—and WRs Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall could be ascending.

Seattle Seahawks - WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

• ADP: WR18 (30.7)
• Projection: WR22 (176.8)

The potential exists for Jaxon Smith-Njigba to build on last year's breakout campaign (100-1,130-6 receiving), but there could be transitional issues with new QB Sam Darnold and new OC Klint Kubiak.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - RB Bucky Irving

• ADP: RB9 (21.4)
• Projection: RB18 (194.7)

The Buccaneers are now on their fourth playcaller in as many years, and OC Josh Grizzard has never called plays before. Bucky Irving was great in 2024 as a rookie (1,514 yards, eight TDs), but he still will likely split work with Rachaad White (2,545 yards, 18 TDs over the past two years).

Tennessee Titans - WR Xavier Restrepo

• ADP: WR100 (215.4)
• Projection: WR163 (10.3)

He has the "shower narrative" going with QB Cameron Ward, but Xavier Restrepo, as an undrafted rookie, isn't even guaranteed to make the roster. 

Washington Commanders - WR Terry McLaurin

• ADP: WR17 (30.3)
• Projection: WR19 (189.2)

I don't think Terry McLaurin is terribly overpriced, but he will face stiffer target competition with the offseason addition of WR Deebo Samuel, and McLaurin seems destined to regress from his career-high 13 TDs.

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