Are the Patriots Undervalued in Super Bowl 60?

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Hims:

Rumor has it that there's a "big game" between the Seahawks and Patriots in San Francisco next week.

Here's an early look at the game via our Fantasy Life Game Model and the betting market.

To see our full Super Bowl fantasy rankings and player projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

Super Bowl 60 Projected Score

Spread: Seahawks -4.5
Total: 45.5
Seahawks: 25
Patriots: 20

Our projections are in line with the current market and lean slightly to the Seahawks.

We have the Seahawks power rated +3.5 points ahead of the Patriots on a neutral field.

Seahawks: +9 (No. 1)
Patriots: +5.5 (No. 4)

But this isn't a totally neutral field: The Seahawks play at Levi's Stadium every season because the 49ers are in their division. In fact, the Seahawks just played there in Week 18. So that familiarity gives them a small locational edge.

Rest, Travel & Kickoff Time

And then there's the rest, travel and kickoff time, all of which favor the Seahawks.

Rest: They got the Wild Card bye, played at home for two games, and now get another week off before the Super Bowl.
Travel: The last time they traveled was Week 18 to nearby San Francisco, whereas the Pats have a cross-country flight after playing in Denver in the AFC Championship.
6:30 p.m. ET Kickoff: The Seahawks have played 14 of their games this year in the late-afternoon or primetime windows, whereas the Pats have played 12 at 1 p.m. ET.

Put all of that together, and that's how we get from a starting point of Seahawks -3.5 to a final projection of Seahawks -5.0. Either way, our game model likes the Seahawks to win by more than a field goal.

Gut vs. Projections

That said … my gut likes the Pats. Throughout his career, HC Mike Vrabel has markedly outperformed expectations as an underdog of at least three points: 29-16-2 ATS (22.8% ROI, per Action Network). Plus, underdogs of at least +4.5 are 12-2-2 ATS since Super Bowl 30.

And the contrarian in me takes notice that literally everyone at ESPN is picking the Seahawks. No offense to the worldwide leader, but when so many people are on one side of something like this, I almost always automatically want to take the other side (I'm lots of fun at parties).

People talk about how easy the path to the Super Bowl has been for the Patriots (and they're not wrong), but what about the Seahawks? Since the Week 8 bye, they haven't played a "real QB" outside of the divisional opponents they face on a regular basis.

Who was the best non-divisional QB the Seahawks faced this year? Maybe Baker Mayfield? What did Mayfield do against them in Week 5? He went 29-of-33 passing with 379 yards, two TDs and no INTs in a 38-35 win … in Seattle.

And in three contests against the best QB they faced this year—Matthew Stafford—the Seahawks allowed 28.3 points per game.

So … What Am I Saying?

I'm not suggesting the Seahawks are bad on defense. This year, they were No. 1 in defensive EPA (-0.113) and No. 3 in defensive SR (40.1%, per RBs Don't Matter). HC Mike Macdonald has done a remarkable job with the stop unit.

But the Seahawks aren't inevitable. Good QBs can have success against them, and the Pats have a good QB.

I'm not saying the Pats will win. If they cover, a three-point loss still feels like the likeliest outcome.

But I am saying this: If I were to bet on this game (and I haven't yet), I'd be tempted to trust my gut more than my model.

FULL SUPER BOWL 60 PREVIEW AND PREDICTIONS

Big Game Can Bring A New Beginning

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Kendall’s Way-Too-Early 2026 Quarterback Rankings

The 2026 fantasy football season is still months away, but before you know it, we're going to be drafting our home-league teams, and it'll all of a sudden be mid-August.

About a week ago, I ran through my way-too-early WR rankings for 2026. Next up? The QB position.

Let's dive into my 2026 fantasy football rankings, focusing specifically on my early run of the top-15 quarterbacks.

1. Josh Allen | BUF

I think I can keep this brief for everyone when talking about Josh Allen—he is going to be the undisputed QB1 heading into next season, even though Sean McDermott is out of the picture. New head coach Joe Brady was the former offensive coordinator, and his familiarity with Allen really eases any tension that the offense was going to have massive turnover or changes.

In Week 11 of the 2023 season, Brady took over as interim offensive coordinator, and since then, the Bills have ranked first in expected points added per play (0.14) and second in points per game (29.1), per ESPN. Will that actually get them past the AFC Championship game? Eh, we'll see! But Allen is a dual-threat alien that you cannot have anywhere else besides QB1. He's finished as the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback in four of the last six seasons.

4. Drake Maye | NE

The turnaround for the Patriots under Mike Vrabel was phenomenal, and Drake Maye was along for a great ride last season. He's up for NFL MVP and while Matthew Stafford might take it at the end of the day, it doesn't deny how great Maye was in fantasy last season. Now, he won't be as cheap anymore, but that's the price we pay for the dual-threat quarterbacks. He led the NFL in completion percentage (72%), QBR (77.1) and yards per attempt (8.9), according to ESPN. And even better for us in fantasy, he also finished with 450 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground.

He accomplished a lot through the air without the likes of true alpha wide receiver talent. I'm hoping to not be priced out of Maye in drafts this season, but we all know you're going to have to pay a pretty penny for him (and rightfully so).

7. Jaxson Dart | NYG

What can John Harbaugh get out of Jaxson Dart? That's going to be the big question this season. We've already seen the flashes, hence why he's my QB7 in the rankings right now. In 2025, Dart finished playing 14 games and locked down 2,272 passing yards and 15 touchdowns, along with 487 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on the ground. Dart completed a league-low 34% of his passes under pressure this past season, but Harbaugh is a coach who has experience building a team with a dual-threat quarterback. Now, let's just get Malik Nabers back for Week 1, and we will be cooking with gas.

FILLING IN THE REST OF THE TOP 15