Dwain McFarland projects wide receiver workloads using analytics to measure 2025 Fantasy Football success.

This offseason, we've been hard at work behind the scenes on our new ceiling and floor logic, which helps us account for variance in fantasy scoring. To do this, we isolated each stat that makes up fantasy points (i.e. receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, etc.) to understand the volatility of each component. As you probably guessed, receptions are less volatile than receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns are more volatile than receiving yards.

But here is the really cool part: not only did we test the stats, but we also tested them for different caliber players. For example, we can expect less variance in receiving yards for a 90th-percentile performer (i.e., Justin Jefferson) than for a 50th-percentile performer.

While our premium subscribers will learn much more about this logic as we roll out new tools this summer, today, everyone gets a sneak peek at how we can use it to gain insights in fantasy football by analyzing the range of outcomes for the rookie wide receiver class.

To be clear, I am the limiting factor in this analysis, as we will use my projections as the starting point. Given our new variance logic, we aim for a median forecast. From there, we will allow the logic to analyze each receiver's projected stats and provide us with a range of outcomes for PPR fantasy points per game.

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Tetairoa McMillan | Panthers

• Floor Projection: 10.2
• Median Projection: 12.2
• Ceiling Projection: 18.6

Tetairoa McMillan posted a 27% career target share in college—the ninth-best mark since 2018—and the Panthers have a weak depth chart. Based on these factors, the median outlook for McMillan projects a full-time role with a 91% route participation rate as the team's leading target earner at 23%, which is the average for a starting Round 1 NFL Draft selection over the last five years. Bryce Young made strides to close out 2024, but the passing offense still projects as one of the bottom-5 units, hindering McMillan's median outcome.

Takeaway: The average finish of a WR at McMillan's median is WR34, worse than his WR24 price tag in early drafts. However, his ceiling of 18.6 makes him worth a swing.

Half-PPR range of outcomes: 8.2, 10.5, 15.6

Travis Hunter | Jaguars

• Floor Projection: 9.4
• Median Projection: 12.2
• Ceiling Projection: 18.4

Travis Hunter is expected to focus mainly on offense for the Jaguars but will still see defensive snaps. His projected 75% route participation sits between a typical WR2 and WR3, though this could dip if his defensive workload grows. 

Even with that uncertainty, Hunter’s strong 24% targets per route run rate (TPRR) translates to a solid 19% target share. Hunter remains a priority weapon with only BrIan Thomas Jr. as real competition. Though BTJ is clearly the No. 1 target in this offense.

Takeaway: Hunter is slightly overpriced in early drafts at WR23 if only considering his median outcome, but his ceiling is just as strong as McMillan's, and upside is what you are betting on if you are drafting Hunter.

Half-PPR range of outcomes: 7.7, 10.0, 15.6

Matthew Golden | Packers

• Floor Projection: 8.9
• Median Projection: 11.6
• Ceiling Projection: 17.8

The Rookie Super Model doesn't see Golden in the same light as McMillan, because Matthew Golden doesn't offer the production rating (73) of a typical late-Round 1 NFL Draft pick. Golden checks the film rating box (83), but we prefer Round 1 receivers to check both. 

Due to his lower rating in the model, he received an 18% target share in my projections, much lower than McMillan. His best season in college was 20%. However, he projects for a near full-time role with an 88% route participation. While McMillan's receptions-per-game ceiling looms over Golden's 6.2 to 4.9, their receiving yardage ceilings are closer at 79 and 71.

Takeaway: Variance is a funny thing, and while it's clear Golden is a riskier pick than McMillan, his ceiling outcome isn't far off, making him an intriguing target as the WR45 in drafts. In fact, this analysis points to Golden as one of the best WR rookie values on the board.

Half-PPR range of outcomes: 7.4, 9.7, 15.4

Emeka Egbuka | Buccaneers

• Floor Projection: 7.4
• Median Projection: 9.7
• Ceiling Projection: 15.1

Emeka Egbuka lands in a tough Year 1 spot behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, limiting his median projection. Still, an expected increase in three-WR sets gets him to a 75% route participation projection. A median 15% target share may seem high, but it is realistic based on a 19% TPRR.  Remember, Egbuka battled high-end target earners his entire career at Ohio State, playing with four receivers who went in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. He still posted a 26% career TPRR, the 10th-best since 2018!!!

While we are assuming Egbuka is third in this pecking order, we can let the variance model handle the "what-if-we-are-wrong" scenarios, such as the Tampa offense going nuclear, Godwin struggling due to his ankle injury, or Mike Evans (32) hitting the age cliff.

Takeaway: Egbuka will be tough to get into your early-season lineups, but he is a talented prospect with a better ceiling (midrange WR2) than most realize. He is the WR49 off the board in early drafts, a price I am willing to pay for a talent profile like his as my WR4 or WR5.

Half-PPR range of outcomes: 5.9, 7.8, 12.7

Luther Burden III | Bears

• Floor Projection: 6.5
• Median Projection: 8.7
• Ceiling Projection: 14.4

You are probably asking yourself, how can a receiver who fell from Round 1 to Round 2 and landed on a crowded offense with questions at quarterback have a ceiling projection that would make him a midrange WR2!?!?

Interestingly, I didn't give Luther Burden a full-time role. He is projected for a 66% route participation, given the Bears will likely use 12 personnel after investing in Colston Loveland and having a quality veteran in Cole Kmet. The projection model also didn't go overboard with Burden's TPRR at 19%, which leads to a 14% target share.

However, I did give Burden a 3% rush share, given the Bears didn't add a significant contributor, and Ben Johnson has a history of getting his receivers involved in the run game. Over the past two seasons, Johnson allotted 3% of his rushing attempts across Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Kalif Raymond despite having Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery on the roster.

Burden offers the profile to provide relief as a rusher, and it's a great way to get him touches in a crowded offense. Rushing production for receivers has a wide variance range, which pushes Burden above some other players with a better path to snaps.

Takeaway: Burden's median projection doesn't hold up versus the names listed above, but he has the type of profile that still has plenty of outs for a ceiling outcome, and the variance logic is accounting for that. He is a WR5 with WR2 upside.

Half-PPR range of outcomes: 5.4, 7.1, 12.5

Jayden Higgins | Texans

• Floor Projection: 6.6
• Median Projection: 8.6
• Ceiling Projection: 13.2

Houston selected Jayden Higgins with the second pick in Round 2 of the NFL Draft—the type of pick that suggests they expect immediate returns. They also added Christian Kirk via free agency and Jaylin Noel in Round 3 of the draft, with Tank Dell likely out for all of 2025. 

In my baseline projections, I have Higgins pulling down a 75% route participation, rotating some with Kirk in two-WR sets but playing most of the time when they have three WRs on the field. With Nico Collins as the clear-cut alpha, his target share projects to 15%.

Takeaway: The median outcome for Higgins places him in WR5 territory, but he offers a WR3 ceiling. He will project more closely to Golden if he looks like a lock for two-WR sets in training camp.

Half-PPR range of outcomes: 5.3, 7.1, 11.2

Tre Harris | Chargers

• Floor Projection: 6.4
• Median Projection: 8.4
• Ceiling Projection: 13.1

Tre Harris offers a profile similar to that of Jayden Higgins. The second-round NFL Draft selection has a reasonable path to significant playing time. The Chargers' 2023 first-rounder, Quentin Johnston, hasn't played consistently despite his big-play potential. The team also added Mike Williams, who will turn 31 in October, for a veteran presence, and he could be better now over a year removed from his early-2023 ACL tear.

I currently have Ladd McConkey as the only Chargers wide receiver running a full complement of routes. Harris projects as the No. 2 with a 70% route participation, but is battling Johnston and Williams for routes at the other two WR spots. His 19% TPRR aligns with Round 2 rookies who played as the WR2 on their team based on data since 2025, placing him at a 14% target share.

Takeaway: Harris profiles as a WR5 with midrange WR3 upside.

Half-PPR range of outcomes: 5.2, 6.9, 11.0

Bonus coverage: Jack Bech of the Raiders and Kyle Williams of the Patriots offer a similar range of outcomes to Higgins and Harris. Their talent profiles aren't as strong based on the Rookie Super Model, but both landed on teams where they have a clear path to playing time.

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