Projections Update: Standout Risers and Fallers
Matthew Freedman shares the players who stand out the most among those whose projections have significantly changed over training camp, including the Saints' QB room and a potential rookie value at wide receiver.
The preseason is officially over, and the NFL regular season kicks off in exactly a week.
That means we're fully in the heat of fantasy football draft season.
With that in mind, I've done a final big round of updates to my 2025 fantasy draft rankings as well my season-long player projections.
Here are the guys who most stand out to me among those whose projections have markedly changed since training camp started.
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2025 Fantasy Football QBs
QBs Spencer Rattler & Tyler Shough (Saints)
- Rattler: ADP - NA | Projection: QB35
- Shough: ADP - QB36 | Projection: QB32
At one point—a couple months ago—I thought Tyler Shough was one of the best ADP values for 2025 fantasy. Ugh.
That's because I thought the second-round rookie would win the Week 1 job—and a large part of that was because I saw Spencer Rattler (5.1 AY/A) and Jake Haener (5.2 AY/A) play last year.
But Shough has failed to distinguish himself from Rattler this preseason.
With Rattler now named the Week 1 starter, at best, I now project him and Shough to split the season.
QBs Daniel Jones & Anthony Richardson (Colts)
- Jones: ADP - QB30 | Projection: QB30
- Richardson: ADP - QB29 | Projection: QB33
Similarly, I entered training camp thinking that Anthony Richardson would beat out Daniel Jones in a competition.
That didn't happen. So the projections have been updated accordingly.
That said … I still think Richardson will get a chance to start this year at some point.
2025 Fantasy Football RBs
RBs Nick Chubb & Joe Mixon (Texans)
- Chubb: ADP - RB48 | Projection: RB44
- Mixon: ADP - RB27 | Projection: RB39
Shortly after the NFL draft, Joe Mixon was on my initial Freedman's Favorites for 2025 fantasy. But then the team added Nick Chubb in free agency … and then Mixon (foot/ankle) missed all of training camp and was subsequently placed on the reserve/NFI list.
Mixon will miss at least the first four weeks of the season, and in his stead Chubb should operate as the No. 1 RB for the Texans.
What. A. Mess.
RBs Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) & Brian Robinson (49ers)
- Croskey-Merritt: ADP - RB42 | Projection: RB45
- Robinson: ADP - RB34 | Projection: RB66
Entering training camp, veteran Brian Robinson looked like a value, given that he had totalled 2,059 yards and 17 TDs over the past two seasons.
But seventh-round rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt (aka "Bill") made him expendable with a strong training camp and preseason—and so the Commanders traded Robinson to the 49ers.
Now, Croskey-Merritt looks like the Week 1 starter for the Commanders.
Even so, I want to be measured in how aggressively I bump up his projection. In college, he put up an efficient 1,368 yards and 19 TDs in 13 games of FBS action. That's good.
But he'll still need to split work with pass-catching savant Austin Ekeler and between-the-tackles and short-yardage grinder Chris Rodriguez. His upside is significant, but he could be the empty calories accumulator in a committee.
As for Robinson, he will battle the explosive Isaac Guerendo for the No.2 job behind All-Pro starter Christian McCaffrey.
If McCaffrey were to suffer an injury and if Robinson were to play ahead of Guerendo, then he could have massive production with offensive HC Kyle Shanahan. But I'm not counting on that.
2025 Fantasy Football WRs
WR Isaac TeSlaa (Lions)
- ADP: WR79
- Projection: WR93
It might seem as if I haven't moved third-round rookie Isaac TeSlaa up much in the projections, but I entered training camp not expecting much out of him in 2025.
That makes sense: He's in an offense with WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, TE Sam LaPorta, and RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
Why would the Lions prioritize getting the ball to TeSlaa with so many other established playmakers on the team?
But the explosive rookie impressed in the preseason (10-146-3 receiving on 13 targets), so now I have him in a rotation with veteran No. 3 WR Tim Patrick.
And there's a chance he has already stolen Patrick's job, which gives him significant upside.
TeSlaa offers cheap exposure to a high-upside offense.
WR Keenan Allen (Chargers)
- ADP: WR57
- Projection: WR52
When training camp started, the 12-year veteran wasn't on a team, so, you know, that makes a difference.
On the one hand, Keenan Allen had 121 targets with the Bears last year. On the other hand, I expect the Chargers to have a slow, run-heavy offense.
WR Marvin Mims (Broncos)
- ADP: WR55
- Projection: WR34
I'm all-in on Marvin Mims.
He's one of my favorite 2025 fantasy bench picks, and he's also one of our top fantasy WR sleepers.
Last night, I actually forced myself to adjust his projection down—because it was wrong for me to have him projected as a WR2 with 1,000 yards receiving.
But, man, that's where I am with him.
Let's look at Dwain McFarland's preseason recaps.
Mims played a full-time role with the starters in Week 1. He rested with the starters in Week 2. And then—after the team traded away slot starter Devaughn Vele—he again enjoyed a full-time workload with the first-team offense in Week 3.
Lack of consistent playing time has been the one problem with Mims to this point in his career—and now it looks as if that problem might be in the past.
Mims is a first-team All-Pro returner who has averaged 10.4 yards per target as a receiver and garnered 22 carries as a runner across his two NFL seasons.
As wild as this sounds, he has a true shot to be a co-No. 1 WR with Courtland Sutton this year.
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