Quarterbacks for Fantasy Football Week 11: Russell Wilson Rolls
Matthew Freedman presents his favorite quarterback plays for Week 11, highlighted by Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and more standouts.
We're into the latter half of the season, and Freedman is here with his top quarterbacks for Fantasy Football Week 11:
It's Week 11.
Just four weeks left in the typical fantasy regular season.
Are you 0-10? So what?! There's still time for you to go on a run so that you don't finish with the worst record in your league. You still have the opportunity to lose with dignity.
Are you 5-5? Great. With just four more wins, you'll almost certainly make the fantasy playoffs.
Are you 10-0. Perfect … but stay humble. Stay focused. Don't let up. In many leagues, you still have time to swing an opportunistic trade with a desperate team that can make your squad better.
Four weeks left.
Let's make the most of them.
As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 10 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …
- Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
- Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
- Must be added if they are on waivers.
- Possess underappreciated upside.
- Have advantageous matchups.
- Should be considered in daily fantasy.
- Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
- Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
- Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.
Some customary notes.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.
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Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Bye Week: This week, the Cardinals, Buccaneers, Giants, and Panthers are on bye.
Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 6:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 11, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 11 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 11 QBs
Russell Wilson (Steelers) vs. Ravens
- Steelers: +3
- O/U: 48.5
- TT: 22.75
This is the most classic of spots for the Steelers to exceed expectations under HC Mike Tomlin, who has dominated at home, in division, and as an underdog … and his team has been exceptional whenever those three situations have aligned.
- Tomlin at Home: 81-66-4 ATS (7.5% ROI) | 104-45-1 ML (11.7% ROI)
- Tomlin in Division: 60-43-4 ATS (13.5% ROI) | 73-33-1 ML (17.1% ROI)
- Tomlin as Underdog: 62-35-4 ATS (24.0% ROI) | 52-49 ML (30.2% ROI)
- Tomlin Total Eclipse: 8-1-2 ATS (57.0% ROI) | 7-4 ML (45.6% ROI)
As it happens, Russell Wilson throughout his career has also been strong at home and as a dog. As both, he has been tastier than a Dangerwich.
- Wilson at Home: 52-45-3 ATS (4.0% ROI) | 71-29 ML (7.3% ROI)
- Wilson as Underdog: 41-23-2 ATS (24.3% ROI) | 30-35-1 ML (16.8% ROI)
- Wilson as Home Dog: 11-3 ATS (52.7% ROI) | 9-5 ML (62.8% ROI)
Wilson has played just three games this year, so the sample is small, but of all QBs with at least 100 plays he's No. 6 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.148, per RBs Don't Matter). His 9.6 AY/A is almost destined to regress, but right now in the category he's No. 2 overall.
In every start with the Steelers, Wilson has at least 275 yards or multiple TDs passing. He's no longer the runner he once was (10-13-1 rushing), but he still has exhibited a solid floor this season—and his matchup this week gives him a significant ceiling, as the Ravens are No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+4.7).
Justin Herbert (Chargers) vs. Bengals
- Chargers: -2
- O/U: 47
- TT: 24.5
Since the Week 5 bye, the Chargers have notably increased the rate at which they pass the ball (per FTN).
- Weeks 1-4: 47.0% pass rate
- Weeks 5-10: 52.6% pass rate
With this change, Justin Herbert's overall play has improved and made him once again a viable fantasy option.
- Weeks 1-4: 144.5 PaYds per game | 7.0 AY/A | 14-24-0 rushing
- Weeks 5-10: 262.2 PaYds per game | 9.5 AY/A | 22-93-1 rushing
For the year, the Chargers have regularly exceeded market expectations, going 6-2-1 ATS (40.1% ROI, per Action Network).
The Bengals are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (18.6) and largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+2.8).
The Dropback
Lamar Jackson (Ravens -3, TT: 25.75) at Steelers: If you had to pick just two QB stats to determine MVP, it would be AY/A and EPA + CPOE … and Jackson's No. 1 in both (10.6, 0.197). A worthy +125 MVP frontrunner, Jackson might have an easier matchup than anticipated if the Steelers find themselves without EDGEs Alex Highsmith (ankle) and Nick Herbig (hamstring).
Jared Goff (Lions -12.5, TT: 29.75) vs. Jaguars: I'll take the under on 4.5 INTs for Goff this week. He trails only Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield with six games of multiple TDs passing, and this week the Lions are No. 1 in implied point total (29.75). The Jaguars are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.271).
C.J. Stroud (Texans -7.5, TT: 25) at Cowboys: Playing on Monday Night Football, Stroud's pass catchers at least won't need to deal with the afternoon sun at AT&T Stadium. Stroud has disappointed this year (7.1 AY/A, just three games with 2-plus TDs passing), but the Cowboys—No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (21.7%)—are bad enough to help any QB discover a better version of himself.
Matthew Stafford (Rams -5, TT: 24.75) at Patriots: In 13 games since last year with WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and RB Kyren Williams, Stafford has averaged 285.2 yards and 2.1 TDs passing. The Patriots are No. 28 in defensive pass EPA (0.137).
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