Quarterbacks For Fantasy Football Week 9: Must Start Bo Nix
Matthew Freedman uncovers the top quarterback options and who they're matched up against in Week 9 to help fantasy football managers make their lineup decisions.
Before we get into my favorite quarterbacks for fantasy football Week 9, let's take a look back at some of the players I liked in Week 8.
Most of the time, I gently mock myself to open the article by looking back at some of my favorites from the previous week who disappointed.
In Week 8, though, I had some great hits.
- Quarterbacks: Bo Nix. No. 2 QB.
- Running Backs: David Montgomery. No. 13 RB.
- Wide Receivers: Cedric Tillman. No. 3 WR.
- Tight Ends: David Njoku. No. 8 TE.
Let's see if I can keep the good times going as we hit the midway point of the regular season.
As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 9 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …
- Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
- Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
- Must be added if they are on waivers.
- Possess underappreciated upside.
- Have advantageous matchups.
- Should be considered in daily fantasy.
- Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
- Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
- Catch my eye with their player projections.
- Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.
Some notes.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.
Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but maybe not precisely) according to my rankings.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Bye Week: This week, the Steelers and 49ers are on bye..
Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 29, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 8 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.
- Running Backs for Fantasy Football Week 9
- Wide Receivers for Fantasy Football Week 9
- Tight Ends for Fantasy Football Week 9
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Best QBs for Fantasy Football Week 9
Jalen Hurts (Eagles) vs. Jaguars
- Eagles: -7
- O/U: 46
- TT: 26.5
No. 1 WR A.J. Brown missed Weeks 2-4 with a hamstring injury. No. 2 WR DeVonta Smith exited Week 3 early with a concussion and missed Week 4, as did All-Pro RT Lane Johnson.
With that context, it's not a surprise that Hurts underwhelmed in Weeks 2-4 (6.1 AY/A, 29-130-2 rushing, 17.7 FPPG).
But since the Week 5 bye, he has played at an MVP-caliber level (11.8 AY/A, 31-92-5 rushing, 26.6 FPPG).
With his dynamic dual-threat performance (236 yards and 1 TD passing with an 80% completion rate, 10-37-3 rushing), Hurts was the No. 1 fantasy QB last week.
He's in peak form, and he's in a good situation as a home favorite. While many QBs tend to underperform expectations in this spot, Hurts has historically dominated when laying points in Philadelphia, as evidenced by his record: 14-7-1 ATS (26.2% ROI) and 19-3 ML (19.3% ROI, per Action Network).
Even without LT Jordan Mailata (hamstring, IR) and also perhaps RG Mekhi Becton (concussion) and TE Dallas Goedert (hamstring), Hurts should continue to dominate against the Jaguars, who are No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+6.8) and playing their fifth game away from Jacksonville in seven weeks.
I have a bet on Eagles -7 logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
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Bo Nix (Broncos) at Ravens
- Broncos: +9.5
- O/U: 45.5
- TT: 18
Nix has had a tale of two seasons.
In the first month, he was a modest disappointment. Since then, however, he has looked like an ascending first-rounder.
- Weeks 1-4: 3.6 AY/A | 23-110-2 rushing | 12.4 FPPG
- Weeks 5-8: 7.9 AY/A | 29-149-2 rushing | 22.2 FPPG
It certainly helps that he played the Panthers last week … but his matchup this week is almost as advantageous, as the Ravens have a QB-friendly funnel defense that ranks No. 5 in rush EPA (-0.172) but No. 28 in dropback EPA (0.196, per RBs Don't Matter). As a result, opposing teams—especially underdogs—are incentivized to pass against the Ravens, who rank No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (21.7).
Although I have the Broncos projected as +8.6 underdogs in our Fantasy Life Game Models, I still like the situation for Nix. With a trailing game script, he should have opportunities to attack downfield, HC Sean Payton is 42-28-2 ATS (17.7% ROI) as a road dog, and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 17-25-1 ATS (-20.9% ROI) as a home favorite.
The Dropback
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs -9, TT: 27.25) vs. Buccaneers: Say whatever you want about the boring Chiefs offense, but it's No. 2 in dropback SR (53.0%) and facing a Bucs defense that's No. 30 (50.9%). With new WR DeAndre Hopkins, Mahomes last week had a season-high 19.2 fantasy points, and the Bucs are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (22.9).
Caleb Williams (Bears Pick'Em, TT: 22.25) at Cardinals: Williams disappointed last week (41.7% completion rate, 5.5 AY/A), but he has respectable numbers since Week 3 (65.6%, 7.8), and the Cardinals are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (23.0%, per FTN).
Derek Carr (Saints -7, TT: 25.25) at Panthers: Carr (oblique) plans to practice this week with an eye toward returning against the Panthers, whom he dominated in Week 1 (11.3 AY/A, 21.3 fantasy points). For the season, the Panthers are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.255).
Mason Rudolph (Titans -3, TT: 20.5) vs. Patriots: I expect Rudolph to start in place of injured QB Will Levis (shoulder) once again, and last week he had 21.5 fantasy points. Mason is 10-6 ATS (21.0% ROI) and worth +3.1 points against the spread more than Levis (per our Fantasy Life QB ATS Value Chart). The Patriots are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA (28.7%).
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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