I get overwhelmed by multiple options.

If I get to work too early and the parking lot is empty, I’ll aimlessly glide through it like I can’t drive. I’ll spend thirty bucks sitting in a Taco Bell drive-thru. I keep seeing things I like. Or, if asked to join a mock draft, I’ll waffle over which spot to pick. Honestly, I should use Matthew Freedman’s strategy and choose either first or last to have longer breaks in between picks.

What Is The Best Draft Position In Fantasy Football?

Anyway, when the good folks at Fantasy Life wanted me to rank the best draft spots, I froze. You all know me. I’m a spreadsheet guy. I need data. This concept of “just vibing” is a little foreign to me. However, I came up with an idea to add some structure to rating draft slots.

Process

Let’s draft!

Our Draft Champion tool made things easy. Instead of hopping in a bunch of mock drafts, I could simulate the experience with a few button clicks. To keep it consistent, I used the following settings:

• League Size and Scoring: 12-team, 0.5 PPR
• ADP Data: ESPN
• Roster Positions: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 7 Bench

I randomized my draft position and let the algo do its thing. If you’re unfamiliar with the process, you’ll eventually wind up with a familiar sight when your turn comes up. 

In this situation, Saquon Barkley would be on my roster faster than you could say, “Go Birds.” Accordingly, starting with last year’s OPOY would make me like the 1.03 more. I’d be influencing my analysis. We can’t have that. I’d rather blame my colleagues instead.

Our rankings team (i.e., not me) provides you with suggestions for each pick. You might have to adjust the position filter to account for tier drops, but I used their player values as a source of truth. I applied a best-player-available approach to each pick and sped through the early rounds to review the results, allowing me to rack and stack each draft slot.

The Opening

In some ways, the first round mimics consensus rankings. An appropriate analogy would be the typical pre-flop actions in a hand of poker. You have a sense of who will check, raise, or fold. Unless somebody has a hand or wants to bluff, there’s no sense of anything wild occurring. So, I wasn’t too surprised to run the simulator a few times to see who was the highest-ranked player from each position.

There are minor deviations from our fantasy football rankings, but no bombshells here. Would I prefer to see Brian Thomas or Nico Collins somewhere in the first round? Sure, but prioritizing an RB is also acceptable. Besides, the first two rounds are where you see strategies start to form.

At first glance, I’m dropping the 1.10 and 1.12 down in the ranks. The 1.11 can at least leverage the turn and optimize their picks based on the needs of the person drafting last. However, having not one but two TEs to consider before we’ve gotten to the middle of the second round conflicts with my usual roster-building strategy. 

However, as the great LeVar Burton used to say, you don’t have to take my word for it. Look at our ranks. Brock Bowers and Trey McBride sit at the end of Tier 3 behind guys like Drake London and Jonathan Taylor.

Consequently, the teams in the middle (1.06 through 1.09) benefit from the TEs getting a price hike. So, if I had to grade the draft areas or bucket each slot, there’s a clear breakdown through just two rounds.

1. Middle position (1.05-1.09)
2. Early position (1.01 – 1.04)
3. Late position (1.10 – 1.12)

Admittedly, you can point out flaws in the approach. A board like this certainly won’t materialize in your league. But you can see how a lack of planning and trying to win the ADP struggle from the later drafters can favor the middle slots.

Yes, the gamers at the top of the draft will have their pick of the top targets. But they’ll have less of a chance to capitalize on any reaches earlier in the round. But, again, it’s just two selections. Let’s see how the rest of the early rounds unfold.

Through the Early Rounds

Once you add more players to your squad, the round you took them matters more than your draft position. Opportunity cost—the needs you dismissed to get who you wanted—becomes a larger discussion. But our goal is to rank the best draft spots. So, let’s apply another micro-view of the next two rounds.

Coincidentally, one of the early-slot drafters broke the QB seal. No, it doesn’t mean the 1.01 through 1.04 are back at the top of the list. Anybody could’ve taken Lamar Jackson. But I wanted to point out Jackson coming off the board because of the chain reaction that commonly follows.

With quarterbacks now on the table, how they fit into our rosters becomes the consideration. Playing chicken with QB ADP is a game that few win. We know we need to get one. Pairing our passer with at least one of his pass-catchers is an often-sought technique. However, we just agreed that the back-end slots are already at a disadvantage. Taking another detour from the core positions (RB and WR) only requires more picks from the middle rounds to turn into hits. For example, let’s look at the 1.11’s squad after the fourth round.

• 1.11 - Brock Bowers, TE
• 2.02 - Ashton Jeanty, RB
• 3.11 - Jayden Daniels, QB
• 4.02 - Marvin Harrison, WR

In reality, nobody’s taking two Raiders to start their draft (unless the mothers of Bowers and Jeanty co-managed a team, I guess). A Bowers-Taylor open makes more sense. In either case, you can see how tacking on Jayden Daniels puts more pressure on their subsequent selections. The 1.12 is in a similar spot. 

• 1.12 - De’Von Achane, RB
• 2.01 – Derrick Henry, RB
• 3.12 – Kenneth Walker, RB
• 4.01 – George Kittle, TE

Zero WRs in a league where receptions get rewarded is a bold move. But on the flip side, I understand. There are only so many TEs worth drafting, so trying to make up for WR in the aggregate has its merits. However, it ratchets the difficulty setting on the draft and waiver-wire parts of navigating a team through the regular season to the max. 

Meanwhile, the mid-position squads can get the best of both worlds.

• 1.07 – Christian McCaffrey, RB
• 2.06 – A.J. Brown, WR
• 3.07 – Jalen Hurts, QB
• 4.06 – Alvin Kamara, RB

That’s a core any manager could build around. Yes, it hinges on the health of two aging RBs, but we’re talking about one season and not a dynasty roster. But maybe things will change towards the end of the early rounds.

A common counter to players at the onesie positions going earlier is to wait until later. Other options will present themselves in the double-digit rounds. But if David Njoku, who may be catching passes from Kenny Pickett in actual games, has a sixth-round price, I get avoiding the headache of TE by committee.

So, ultimately, my initial rankings of the draft areas still feel right.

1. Middle position (1.05-1.09)
2. Early position (1.01 – 1.04)
3. Late position (1.10 – 1.12)

The end of drafts forces you to bet on positional runs and player value that may turn out to be wrong. Picking from the 1.01 ensures the best option at a single position. But we’ve still got at least six other starting slots to fill. A middle position balances the two extremes. From there, managers can ride a wave of onesie players or scoop value as it falls from either end of the board. Ultimately, it comes down to your risk tolerance and process for building winning fantasy football squads.