Few comedic actors in the 90s held sway over the box office like Jim Carrey. I was certain all he could be was Ace Ventura or Fire Marshall Bill. But then I watched The Truman Show and saw the truth about his skills on the big screen.

And even in the ’98 Academy Award-nominated film, we’re reminded of the necessity to question certainty. In fantasy football, we’re willing to pay extra for the sure thing. An alpha WR. A bellcow RB. Ambiguous backfields are too much of a gamble. But once we start digging into each case, we can find the true value in the situation.

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Running Back Committees To Monitor For 2026

True Backfield Toss Ups

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Bhayshul Tuten: RB27 (ADP), RB24 (Projection)
• Chris Rodriguez: RB51, RB48

The prospect of Bhayshul Tuten taking on a larger role in the Jaguars’ offense only triggered a single memory. And it wasn’t a good one.

Not only did I have to watch my Bengals look like the Keystone Cops on defense (not anymore!), but I had to watch Joe Burrow limp off the field again. Anyway, my trauma aside, we saw enough of Tuten to at least agree he can grow into a workhorse rusher.

• (Early-Down) Rushing Success Rate: 46.5% (Tuten), 34.4% (Etienne)
• Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 21.7%, 17.3%
• YAC per Reception: 8.0, 9.4

Behind the same offensive line and while seeing a similar rate of stacked boxes, the rookie matched or exceeded Travis Etienne’s output across multiple metrics. Tuten’s lack of routes in obvious passing situations (2.9%) is a legitimate concern. But at least he doesn’t have much competition in that specific area from his new backfield partner.

Chris Rodriguez was like Liam Neeson in Taken. He had a particular set of skills. Per our Utilization Report, he took 49% of the short-yardage snaps and 45% of the carries from inside the five-yard line. Looking at last year’s usage isn’t to say he can’t be more under HC Liam Coen, but we can also see how he’s a complement to Tuten.

Regardless, both are on a team that ranked in the top half of the league in EPA per drive and plays per game inside their opponent’s red zone. Oh, and they were just outside the top 12 in green-zone rushing rate. In other words, both have value at their current costs and would be fine additions to the right roster builds.

Verdict: Draft both at cost

Washington Commanders

• Rachaad White: RB42 (ADP), RB32 (Projection)
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt: RB45, RB41

So, the value of either RB doesn’t matter if you don’t believe a healthy Jayden Daniels will get the offense back to its high-scoring ways. If that’s the case, avoid both and pray for Terry McLaurin. If not, I can see why Dwain’s projections would point to a higher outcome than Rachaad White’s ADP would suggest.

Let’s say you don’t believe in White as a receiver. I present to you the current starting non-McLaurin pass catchers for the Fightin’ Jayden Daniels:

• Treylon Burks: 53 (most targets in a season)
• Luke McCaffrey: 27
• Chig Okonkwo: 76

With most NFL mock drafts assuming the Commanders go defense in the first round and no second-rounder, the chances of making a significant improvement to the receiver corps look slim. Enter the Bucs former RB2. While White’s targets and pass-catching peripherals took a hit, this was while the entire Tampa offense took a step back due to injury and a change at OC. Plus, his familiarity with Daniels from college should create a larger gap between him and Jacory Croskey-Merritt as we get deeper into the offseason.

Verdict: Draft both at cost; favor White

We Think We Know What's Going To Happen With These Backfields

New England Patriots

• TreVeyon Henderson: RB20 (ADP), RB25 (Projection)
• Rhamondre Stevenson: RB29, RB29

If I had to guess, the TreVeyon Henderson truthers have this exact screenshot blown up and hung on their ceiling so they can look at it before going to bed.

Those were good times. We got explosive runs, a bellcow workload, and multiple RB1 finishes. But I feel like I’m forgetting something.

It could be HC Mike Vrabel’s decision to feature PS RB Terrell Jennings as a goal-line option. Nah, that’s not it. Maybe it’s Stevenson’s toe injury that sidelined him for multiple games, enabling Henderson’s breakout period. Could be. Or I guess it’s that during the playoffs (i.e., when it mattered), Stevenson handled over 50% of the carries in three of four games. Sure, let’s go with that one.

If that doesn’t give you pause, look at the guys going before and after Henderson: Javonte Williams (RB18), Bucky Irving (RB19), David Montgomery (RB21), Quinshon Judkins (RB22). Assuming health, there’s not much question if those four are RB1s for their teams. And for some reason, that Sesame Street song “One of These Things (Is Not Like the Others)” keeps playing in my head.

Verdict: Limit exposure to Henderson; draft Stevenson at cost

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Jaylen Warren: RB28 (ADP), RB26 (Projection)
• Rico Dowdle: RB30, RB31 

My knee-jerk reaction to the Steelers signing Rico Dowdle was that the former Panther and Jaylen Warren could be like a thunder-and-lightning combo. Warren would be the short rusher with burst, and Dowdle would be the power back. But first, the two weigh about the same despite Dowdle having three inches on his new teammate. And two, Warren operates just fine as an early-down rusher.

• Rushing Success Rate: 46.9% (Warren), 43.2% (Dowdle)
• Adj. Yards After Contact per Att.: 3.87, 3.54
• Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 24.7%, 14.6%

Of course, we didn’t see more of Dowdle until after the first month of the season. But even if you shrink the sample window, Warren still comes out on top. And this was while seeing more stacked boxes and having first contact at or behind the LOS on more attempts. 

Despite Kenneth Gainwell taking over the receiving work, Warren still maintained the short-yardage, goal-line role. And since Dowdle hasn’t excelled in this area, I’d be comfortable continuing to favor the incumbent in drafts over the challenger.

Verdict: Draft Warren at cost; limit exposure to Dowdle

RB Committees That Make You Think ... Well,  What If …

Arizona Cardinals

• Tyler Allgeier: RB36 (ADP), RB40 (Projection)
• James Conner: RB39, RB39 

I try to get back into video games over the offseason (but my sons are usually holding the Switch or PS5 hostage), and this year I’ve been playing (and re-playing) Resident Evil: Requiem. James Conner is some crossover of H.U.N.K. and Michael Myers. Injuries only slow him down. But eventually, he’ll get onto the field and into the end zone.

• 2025: 1 (Total TDs), 1 (TD from inside the 10-yard line)
• 2024: 8, 8
• 2023: 7, 6
• 2022: 7, 6

However, Conner’s fantasy value has been dependent on the offense getting into scoring position. Luckily, his receiving skill set mitigated the woes between the 20’s. And the pessimism surrounding the Cardinals’ offense only further depresses his value. But let’s take another narrative for a spin.

Jacoby Brissett does his best Jameis Winston impression for a second year in a row. Arizona still falls behind the division, but we get production out of the passing game. The corollary is that a functional aerial attack brings along the ground game, but with Tyler Allgeier as the beneficiary.

Allgeier spent the last four years in Atlanta seeing more than eight men in the box on over 40% of his carries and still averaging more than three adjusted yards after contact. It’s no wonder we saw him often once the Falcons got past the opposite 20-yard line. So while our projections have Allgeier as the leader in carries, if the offense shows any signs of life, we’ll get more value out of making a bet on the younger talent.

Verdict: Draft Allgeier at cost

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